St. Louis Rams Playoff Chances 2015

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.7%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
49ers vs Rams-7.1*-0.2+9.4
-0.8*-0.0+1.0
Texans vs Cardinals+0.8*+0.0-1.1
+0.1+0.1-0.1
Eagles vs Seahawks+0.6*-0.2-0.8
+0.0*-0.1-0.1
Lions vs Dolphins-0.3*-0.5+0.3
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Bears vs Jaguars-0.2*-0.4+0.3
Titans vs Vikings+0.2*+0.8-0.3
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Bills vs Buccaneers+0.2*-1.2-0.3
+0.0-0.1-0.0
Ravens vs Redskins+0.2*-1.2-0.3
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Giants vs Chiefs-0.2*+1.9+0.3
-0.0+0.1+0.0
Jets vs Falcons+0.2*+1.1-0.3
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Panthers vs Patriots-0.2*+0.6+0.3
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Colts vs Packers+0.2*-0.5-0.3
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Browns vs Raiders*-0.0+0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Rams vs Lions+5.6*-0.6-7.5
+0.7*-0.2-0.9
Seahawks vs Titans-0.8*-1.6+1.1
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Cardinals vs Bills-0.8*+0.3+1.1
-0.1*+0.1+0.1
49ers vs Panthers-0.6*-0.3+0.8
-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Ravens vs Saints+0.2*+0.1-0.3
Texans vs Buccaneers+0.2*+1.0-0.3
Chiefs vs Packers+0.2*+1.0-0.3
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Cowboys vs Jaguars-0.2*+1.1+0.3
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Chargers vs Giants+0.2*+0.8-0.3
Eagles vs Jets-0.2*-2.3+0.3
-0.0*-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Rams finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
25.5-31In100655*
2525-6-0In10001,228
24.524-6-1In10021
2424-7-0In99104,270
23.523-7-1In991107
2323-8-0In9720113,632
22.522-8-1In9721285
2222-9-0In90702035,928*
21.521-9-1In851005620
2121-10-0100.0%75181060081,527*
20.520-10-1In652530701,371
2020-11-0100.05031601210157,463*
19.519-11-199.836359117202,560*
1919-12-099.52234162214000267,983
18-11-2In283212420425
18.518-12-198.91130224238104,064
1818-13-095.0520238241541000401,101
17-12-2In99272392322
17.517-13-188.5111231220219205,848
1717-14-073.505161515231772000522,551
16-13-274.52917153219647
16.516-14-154.0011016720231562007,186*
1616-15-034.500514312212214620000597,871
15-14-232.71521529131012452
15.515-15-117.802111513222315720007,578*
1515-16-09.700170271522211572000604,166
14-15-210.6114111536156247
14.514-16-14.90500151523241782007,180
1414-17-02.5020002816232316720536,801
13-16-2Out36192514228336
13.513-17-11.11002616262716615,948
1313-18-00.501000139192725133419,299
12-17-2Out627242712333
12.512-18-10.3002822332694,360
1212-19-00.100001414303417288,696
11-18-2Out4430392223
11.511-19-10.000162141312,771
1111-20-00.00003143944172,561
10-19-2Out18295317
10.510-20-1Out00734591,510
1010-21-0Out0004257189,565*
9.59-21-1Out11683671
99-22-0Out01118840,286*
8.58-22-1Out694294
88-23-0Out049615,626
7.57-23-1Out298102
77-24-0Out1995,129
6.56-24-1Out10034
66-25-0Out01001,443
0-5.5Out100719*
Total:37.7%66666677666666664,311,312

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
49ers vs Rams+1.5*-0.0-2.0
Ravens vs Redskins-0.0+0.3+0.0
Texans vs Cardinals-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Eagles vs Seahawks-0.1+0.2+0.1
Bills vs Buccaneers-0.0+0.1+0.0
Bears vs Jaguars+0.0+0.1-0.0
Lions vs Dolphins+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Titans vs Vikings-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Giants vs Chiefs+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Jets vs Falcons-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Panthers vs Patriots+0.0*-0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Rams vs Lions-1.3*+0.3+1.8
Chiefs vs Packers-0.0-0.2+0.0
Eagles vs Jets+0.0+0.2-0.0
Seahawks vs Titans+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Cardinals vs Bills+0.1*-0.2-0.1
49ers vs Panthers+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Texans vs Buccaneers-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Cowboys vs Jaguars+0.0*-0.2-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
25.5-31100
2525-6-010000
24.524-6-1955
2424-7-097210
23.523-7-19631
2323-8-0916201
22.522-8-189821
2222-9-0761470020
21.521-9-1671810005
2121-10-04927171105000
20.520-10-1333223230600
2020-11-01832265600121100
19.519-11-173026109000161200
1919-12-022017171422017440000
18-11-22816168441644
18.518-12-10101020185401678010
1818-13-005317131071111313241000
17-12-2955523235523
17.517-13-110108151125151659200
1717-14-00053131052131012139310000
16-13-22913421313191592
16.516-14-10101088063161317104100
1616-15-000054903112512161510521000
15-14-28822134171910152
15.515-15-1021915039182217103100
1515-16-000011600200261116181611631000
14-15-2464191715131111
14.514-16-100400001411192320114100
1414-17-0002000001361217191712621000
13-16-231711221719363
13.513-17-11001512212520103100
1313-18-000100000149162121168310
12-17-2621121221216
12.512-18-10014112227221030
1212-19-000001411212722112
11-18-21713431313
11.511-19-10003102332248
1111-20-00001414293518
10-19-2666292429
10.510-20-104204333
1010-21-0002113750
9.59-21-1042868
99-22-00022077
8.58-22-101288
88-23-00793
7.57-23-11297
77-24-00298
6.56-24-1397
66-25-0199
0-5.5100
Total:34343333343433333333333333333333