Cincinnati Bengals Playoff Chances 2015

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 36.6%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Broncos vs Bengals-5.6*+1.0+7.5
-0.7*+0.0+0.9
Ravens vs Redskins-0.8*-0.3+1.1
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Chargers vs Steelers+0.7*-1.5-0.9
+0.0*-0.1-0.1
Browns vs Raiders-0.6*+1.2+0.8
-0.0*+0.1+0.1
Colts vs Packers-0.3*+0.6+0.3
Bears vs Jaguars+0.2*-0.2-0.3
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Titans vs Vikings-0.2*+1.1+0.3
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Texans vs Cardinals-0.2*-2.6+0.3
-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Lions vs Dolphins+0.2*-0.5-0.3
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Giants vs Chiefs+0.2*-0.6-0.2
Bills vs Buccaneers-0.2*+0.6+0.2
Panthers vs Patriots+0.2*-1.8-0.2
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Jets vs Falcons-0.2*+0.2+0.2
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Ravens vs Saints-0.8*-0.1+1.1
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Browns vs Broncos-0.6*-1.0+0.8
-0.0*-0.1+0.1
Steelers vs Colts-0.6*-1.7+0.8
-0.0*-0.1+0.1
Seahawks vs Titans+0.2*-0.9-0.3
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Texans vs Buccaneers-0.2*+2.1+0.3
-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Eagles vs Jets+0.2*-0.2-0.3
Cowboys vs Jaguars+0.2*+1.4-0.3
Cardinals vs Bills+0.2*+1.9-0.3
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Chargers vs Giants-0.2*-2.8+0.3
-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Chiefs vs Packers-0.2*-0.5+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Bengals finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
25.5-31In100650*
2525-6-0In99101,171
24.524-6-1In10023
2424-7-0In98204,388*
23.523-7-1In963180
2323-8-0In9540113,568*
22.522-8-1In9541234
2222-9-0In861102035,653*
21.521-9-1In801604622
2121-10-0100.0%68242060080,856*
20.520-10-1In602840701,387
2020-11-0100.042369112100157,493*
19.519-11-199.8264014117202,540
1919-12-099.31635203205100268,588
18-11-2In53632518522
18.518-12-198.08262762292004,131
1818-13-093.53172611211551000400,603
17-12-297.52820132810340
17.517-13-185.118231418211130005,874
1717-14-069.4041518122118931000522,875
16-13-261.171713717241554
16.516-14-148.601818516221893007,079
1616-15-031.6004152101922168310000599,534
15-14-221.12251219261611757
15.515-15-116.50111041119231893107,687*
1515-16-09.40180151321221793100604,768
14-15-221.3211121923136447
14.514-16-14.6040141122252093007,279
1414-17-02.6030002614222418920536,910
13-16-22.635132624215338
13.513-17-11.01001513252719716,079
1313-18-00.60100027172727154419,160
12-17-2Out241518271533
12.512-18-10.10018203328104,417
1212-19-00.100001413293519286,728
11-18-2Out551515303020
11.511-19-1Out0151941342,808
1111-20-00.00002133846172,212
10-19-2Out554520
10.510-20-1Out1630631,504
1010-21-0Out003247289,479*
9.59-21-1Out11584701
99-22-0Out01118940,628*
8.58-22-1Out0595292
88-23-0Out049615,594
7.57-23-1Out19981
77-24-0Out01995,154
6.56-24-1Out10023
66-25-0Out01001,407
0-5.5Out100721*
Total:36.6%56776666666666664,311,312

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Broncos vs Bengals+1.3*-0.2-1.8
Ravens vs Redskins+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Chargers vs Steelers-0.1*+0.2+0.1
Browns vs Raiders+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Eagles vs Seahawks*+0.0+0.1-0.0
Titans vs Vikings+0.0*-0.3-0.0
Lions vs Dolphins-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Bears vs Jaguars-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Bills vs Buccaneers+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Texans vs Cardinals+0.0*+0.3-0.0
Panthers vs Patriots-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Jets vs Falcons+0.0*+0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Ravens vs Saints+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Steelers vs Colts+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Browns vs Broncos+0.1*+0.2-0.1
Seahawks vs Titans-0.0+0.2+0.0
Eagles vs Jets-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Cardinals vs Bills-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Chargers vs Giants+0.0*+0.4-0.0
Texans vs Buccaneers+0.0*-0.4-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
26.5-31100
2626-5-01000
25.525-5-1100
2525-6-099010
24.524-6-1100
2424-7-097120
23.523-7-195131
2323-8-0914401
22.522-8-191441
2222-9-0779110020
21.521-9-1681216004
2121-10-04919231206000
20.520-10-136252714070
2020-11-018243248011101000
19.519-11-1719319140116120
1919-12-021420151923017350100
18-11-252793251455
18.518-12-1079172256016690200
1818-13-003314169101111014251000
17-12-28201551031513833
17.517-13-1108914132513164113100
1717-14-00043121352101110151041000
16-13-2721511226972415
16.516-14-1010898053131419135100
1616-15-0000451002196131715105210000
15-14-222421241219211445
15.515-15-10129040391822179410
1515-16-000117001002611161816116310000
14-15-24172429131561594
14.514-16-10040001411182519114100
1414-17-0002000001361217191712621000
13-16-23533311212111165
13.513-17-1100151320251911410
1313-18-00010000149162121168310
12-17-23991524151293
12.512-18-10014122227211030
1212-19-0000001411212722112
11.511-19-100292233278
1111-20-00001414293518
10.510-20-104214035
1010-21-0002113750
9.59-21-132769
99-22-00022078
8.58-22-111090
88-23-00892
7.57-23-1496
77-24-00298
6.56-24-1496
66-25-0199
0-5.5100
Total:33334343333333333333333333333333