Pittsburgh Steelers Playoff Chances 2015

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 36.9%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Chargers vs Steelers-5.6*+1.9+7.5
-0.7*+0.1+0.9
Ravens vs Redskins-0.8*+1.4+1.1
-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Broncos vs Bengals+0.7*-0.1-0.9
+0.0*-0.1-0.1
Browns vs Raiders-0.6*-0.9+0.9
-0.0*-0.2+0.1
Titans vs Vikings-0.3*+1.7+0.3
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Texans vs Cardinals-0.2*+0.1+0.3
Colts vs Packers-0.2*-0.2+0.3
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Giants vs Chiefs+0.2*+0.7-0.3
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Lions vs Dolphins+0.2*+1.9-0.3
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Bears vs Jaguars+0.2*+1.8-0.3
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Jets vs Falcons-0.2*+1.5+0.3
-0.0+0.1+0.0
Bills vs Buccaneers-0.2*-0.5+0.2
Panthers vs Patriots+0.2*-0.5-0.2
+0.0*-0.2-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Steelers vs Colts+5.6*-1.3-7.5
+0.7*-0.3-0.9
Ravens vs Saints-0.9*+1.7+1.2
-0.1*+0.2+0.1
Browns vs Broncos-0.7*-1.6+0.9
-0.0*-0.2+0.1
Seahawks vs Titans+0.3*+0.3-0.3
Cowboys vs Jaguars+0.2*+0.9-0.3
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Chargers vs Giants-0.2*-0.1+0.3
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Texans vs Buccaneers-0.2*-0.5+0.3
Cardinals vs Bills+0.2*+1.0-0.3
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Chiefs vs Packers-0.2*-0.3+0.3
Eagles vs Jets+0.2*+1.9-0.2
+0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Steelers finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
25.5-31In100654*
2525-6-0In10001,121
24.524-6-1In10027
2424-7-0In98204,383
23.523-7-1In99196
2323-8-0In9540113,712*
22.522-8-1In9362233
2222-9-0In8612002035,635*
21.521-9-1In8017130651
2121-10-0100.0%68242050080,641*
20.520-10-1In573150701,379
2020-11-0100.042379111100157,293*
19.519-11-199.8284014115202,599
1919-12-099.41635214195100269,375
18-11-2In1728223318
18.518-12-198.1827267229204,053
1818-13-093.73172611211551000401,854
17-12-287.5212525888424
17.517-13-185.219221716201131005,896
1717-14-070.0041618112118931000522,133
16-13-270.7212101234205541
16.516-14-149.701818517221783007,148
1616-15-032.10041629192116831000597,914
15-14-235.22174132219156454
15.515-15-116.101120311202318830007,851
1515-16-09.80180151320221793100605,924
14-15-213.5113514271616837
14.514-16-14.90501411222519103007,086*
1414-17-02.70030002614222418920537,092
13-16-25.453383030118337
13.513-17-11.1101514242719716,007
1313-18-00.60100027172727154419,265
12-17-2Out31444281136
12.512-18-10.200017213229104,501
1212-19-00.100001413293519286,791
11-18-2Out2016402425
11.511-19-1Out0152040342,678
1111-20-00.00003133846171,945
10-19-2Out15463813
10.510-20-10.1000533611,501
1010-21-0Out003247289,329*
9.59-21-1Out11881711
99-22-0Out00118940,215*
8.58-22-1Out496300
88-23-0Out049615,756*
7.57-23-1Out19998
77-24-0Out01995,030*
6.56-24-1Out10022
66-25-0Out01001,419
0-5.5Out100709*
Total:36.9%56775666666666664,311,312

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Chargers vs Steelers+1.3-0.4-1.8
Jets vs Falcons+0.0-0.3-0.0
Ravens vs Redskins+0.1*-0.2-0.1
Lions vs Dolphins-0.0-0.2+0.0
Browns vs Raiders+0.1*+0.3-0.1
Broncos vs Bengals-0.1+0.1+0.1
Titans vs Vikings+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Giants vs Chiefs-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Colts vs Packers+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Texans vs Cardinals+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Bears vs Jaguars-0.0*-0.3+0.0
Panthers vs Patriots-0.0*+0.3+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Steelers vs Colts-1.3*+0.4+1.8
Ravens vs Saints+0.1-0.6-0.1
Chargers vs Giants+0.0-0.2-0.0
Browns vs Broncos+0.1*+0.4-0.1
Texans vs Buccaneers+0.0-0.1-0.0
Seahawks vs Titans-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Chiefs vs Packers+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Cowboys vs Jaguars-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Eagles vs Jets-0.0*-0.3+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
26.5-31100
2626-5-01000
25.525-5-1100
2525-6-09900
24.524-6-1100
2424-7-098120
23.523-7-19631
2323-8-09234001
22.522-8-185762
2222-9-076101100020
21.521-9-16514160130
2121-10-049192412005000
20.520-10-1332429250700
2020-11-018243249011101000
19.519-11-1721318140114120
1919-12-021420151924016350100
18.518-12-1081017224701669020
1818-13-0033141710111111013151000
17-12-2417817258884
17.517-13-1108913152512165113100
1717-14-000043121352101110151041000
16-13-222107221020152055
16.516-14-101081080541414181251000
1616-15-0000046100219612161510521000
15-14-2241341322091115242
15.515-15-101290303918231794100
1515-16-000117001002611161816116310000
14-15-21135192716883
14.514-16-1005001411182420115100
1414-17-00003000001361217191712621000
13-16-2516524228855
13.513-17-11001513202420114100
1313-18-00010000149162121168310
12-17-232822191963
12.512-18-100014122127221020
1212-19-0000001411212722112
11-18-241612408128
11.511-19-100392331267
1111-20-00001413293518
10.510-20-1014204134
1010-21-0002123750
9.59-21-1043165
99-22-00022077
8.58-22-11288
88-23-00892
7.57-23-1298
77-24-00298
6.56-24-1100
66-25-0199
0-5.5100
Total:33334344333333333333333333333333