SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

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4 a.m.

Cleveland Browns Playoff Chances 2015

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 35.8%

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Browns vs Raiders	+5.4*+0.7-7.2		+0.7*+0.1-0.9
Ravens vs Redskins	-0.8*-0.0+1.1		-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Broncos vs Bengals	+0.7*-0.3-1.0		+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Chargers vs Steelers	+0.7*-0.5-0.9		+0.0*-0.1-0.1
Bears vs Jaguars	+0.2*-1.5-0.3
Panthers vs Patriots	+0.2*+1.6-0.3		+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Titans vs Vikings	-0.2*+0.3+0.3
Colts vs Packers	-0.2*-1.1+0.3		-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Lions vs Dolphins	+0.2*-0.8-0.3
Jets vs Falcons	-0.2*+0.9+0.3
Giants vs Chiefs	+0.2*+0.2-0.2
Texans vs Cardinals	-0.2*+1.7+0.2		-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Bills vs Buccaneers	-0.2*-1.0+0.2

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Browns vs Broncos	+5.5*+1.1-7.3		+0.7*+0.1-0.9
Ravens vs Saints	-0.8*+0.3+1.1		-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Steelers vs Colts	-0.6*+2.1+0.8		-0.0*+0.2+0.1
Seahawks vs Titans	+0.3*+2.2-0.4
Cowboys vs Jaguars	+0.3*+0.6-0.3
Texans vs Buccaneers	-0.2*-1.6+0.3		-0.0*-0.3+0.0
Chiefs vs Packers	-0.2*+0.1+0.3
Eagles vs Jets	+0.2*+0.1-0.3
Cardinals vs Bills	+0.2*-1.1-0.2		+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Chargers vs Giants	-0.2*+1.8+0.2		-0.0*+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Browns finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

25.5	-31						In		100																698	*
25		25	-	6	-	0	In		100	0															1,154
24	.5	24	-	6	-	1	In		100																21
24		24	-	7	-	0	In		99	1			0												4,436
23	.5	23	-	7	-	1	In		98	3															80
23		23	-	8	-	0	In		95	4	0		1												13,531	*
22	.5	22	-	8	-	1	In		90	9			1												263
22		22	-	9	-	0	In		86	12	0	0	2	0											35,291
21	.5	21	-	9	-	1	In		80	17	0		3												593
21		21	-	10	-	0	100.0	%	67	25	2	0	5	0	0										80,669	*
20	.5	20	-	10	-	1	In		56	32	4	0	8	0											1,385
20		20	-	11	-	0	100.0		40	37	9	1	12	1	0	0									158,713	*
19	.5	19	-	11	-	1	99.8		29	38	14	2	16	2	0	0									2,505
19		19	-	12	-	0	99.2		15	34	21	4	20	5	1	0	0								268,356
		18	-	11	-	2	In		14	41	14	5	18	9											22
18	.5	18	-	12	-	1	98.4		8	27	25	7	22	10	2	0									4,039
18		18	-	13	-	0	92.6		3	16	26	11	21	16	6	1	0	0	0						401,151
		17	-	12	-	2	96.3		4	19	30	11	26	7	4										27
17	.5	17	-	13	-	1	85.7		1	8	21	16	18	21	10	3	1	0							5,968	*
17		17	-	14	-	0	66.9		0	3	15	18	10	20	18	10	4	1	0	0	0				521,272
		16	-	13	-	2	60.0			5	15	13	13	15	20	10	10								40
16	.5	16	-	14	-	1	48.5			1	9	18	5	16	23	17	8	2	1	0					7,188	*
16		16	-	15	-	0	29.1		0	0	4	15	2	8	17	21	17	10	4	1	0	0	0		599,754
		15	-	14	-	2	27.1				4	17	2	4	10	31	19	10	2						48
15	.5	15	-	15	-	1	15.8			0	1	11	0	3	11	20	24	18	8	3	1	0			7,819
15		15	-	16	-	0	8.7			0	0	7	0	1	4	11	19	23	19	11	4	1	0	0	604,528
		14	-	15	-	2	16.4					15		2	2	11	15	22	27	5	2				55
14	.5	14	-	16	-	1	4.3				0	4		0	1	5	12	21	25	19	9	3	0	0	7,245	*
14		14	-	17	-	0	2.3				0	2	0	0	0	1	5	12	21	25	20	10	3	0	537,612
		13	-	16	-	2	2.2					2					4	7	9	29	31	16		2	45
13	.5	13	-	17	-	1	1.0					1			0	0	1	5	13	25	28	19	7	1	5,870
13		13	-	18	-	0	0.5				0	1		0	0	0	0	1	6	15	26	28	18	5	419,080
		12	-	17	-	2	Out											3	3	17	17	25	33	3	36
12	.5	12	-	18	-	1	0.1					0					0	0	2	7	21	33	26	11	4,342
12		12	-	19	-	0	0.1					0					0	0	0	3	12	27	37	21	286,922	*
11	.5	11	-	19	-	1	0.1					0							0	1	4	19	43	34	2,750
11		11	-	20	-	0	0.0					0						0	0	0	2	12	38	48	172,133	*
10	.5	10	-	20	-	1	Out													0	1	5	32	62	1,439
10		10	-	21	-	0	0.0					0								0	0	3	24	73	89,532	*
9	.5	9	-	21	-	1	Out															1	18	82	738
9		9	-	22	-	0	Out														0	0	10	90	40,294	*
8	.5	8	-	22	-	1	Out																8	92	277
8		8	-	23	-	0	Out															0	4	96	15,776	*
7	.5	7	-	23	-	1	Out																3	97	91
7		7	-	24	-	0	Out																1	99	5,286
6	.5	6	-	24	-	1	Out																	100	30
6		6	-	25	-	0	Out																0	100	1,480
4	-5.5						Out																	100	385	*
3		3	-	28	-	0	Out																10	90	10
0		0	-	31	-	0	Out																	100	333

Total:							35.8	%	5	6	7	7	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	4,311,312

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Browns vs Raiders	-1.3-0.1+1.8
Chargers vs Steelers	-0.1+0.2+0.1
Broncos vs Bengals	-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Ravens vs Redskins	+0.1*+0.3-0.1
Panthers vs Patriots	-0.0*-0.4+0.0
Bills vs Buccaneers	+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Jets vs Falcons	+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Giants vs Chiefs	-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Lions vs Dolphins	-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Colts vs Packers	+0.0*+0.2-0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Browns vs Broncos	-1.3*-0.0+1.8
Steelers vs Colts	+0.1*-0.3-0.1
Ravens vs Saints	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Chiefs vs Packers	+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Chargers vs Giants	+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Cardinals vs Bills	-0.0*+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

25.5	-31						100
25		25	-	6	-	0	99	0	0
24	.5	24	-	6	-	1	100
24		24	-	7	-	0	98	1	1						0
23	.5	23	-	7	-	1	96	1	3
23		23	-	8	-	0	91	3	4		0				1
22	.5	22	-	8	-	1	86	4	9						1
22		22	-	9	-	0	76	10	12	0	0		0		2		0
21	.5	21	-	9	-	1	66	14	17	0	0				3
21		21	-	10	-	0	48	19	24	1	2		0		5	0	0		0
20	.5	20	-	10	-	1	35	21	30	1	4		0		8	0	0
20		20	-	11	-	0	17	23	32	5	9	0	1		12	0	1		0	0
19	.5	19	-	11	-	1	8	21	31	8	14	0	2		15	1	2		0	0
19		19	-	12	-	0	2	13	20	14	20	2	4	0	17	3	5	0	1	0	0
		18	-	11	-	2	5	9	9	32	14		5		18		9
18	.5	18	-	12	-	1	0	7	10	17	21	4	7	0	16	6	9	0	2	0
18		18	-	13	-	0	0	3	3	13	16	10	11	1	11	10	14	2	6	1	0	0	0
		17	-	12	-	2		4		19	26	4	7	4	11	15	7		4
17	.5	17	-	13	-	1		1	0	8	9	13	14	2	6	13	17	4	10	4	1	0
17		17	-	14	-	0		0	0	3	3	12	13	5	1	9	10	10	15	11	5	1	0	0	0
		16	-	13	-	2				5	5	10	10	3	8	5	8	8	18	15	8
16	.5	16	-	14	-	1				1	1	8	10	9	0	5	3	12	15	18	12	5	1	0	0
16		16	-	15	-	0		0		0	0	4	5	10	0	2	1	8	6	12	17	16	11	6	2	1	0	0	0	0
		15	-	14	-	2						4	4	13		2		4	4	10	29	8	15	6
15	.5	15	-	15	-	1				0		1	2	9		0		3	0	3	9	18	22	18	10	3	1	0
15		15	-	16	-	0				0	0	0	1	7		0	0	1	0	0	2	6	11	16	18	16	12	6	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
		14	-	15	-	2								15				2			4	9	7	16	11	20	9	5	2
14	.5	14	-	16	-	1						0	0	4				0			0	0	1	4	10	20	23	21	11	4	1	0	0
14		14	-	17	-	0						0	0	2		0		0			0	0	0	1	2	6	12	17	19	17	12	6	3	1	0	0	0
		13	-	16	-	2								2											2	7	7	16	22	22	11	9		2
13	.5	13	-	17	-	1								1											0	0	1	5	13	21	24	20	10	4	1	0	0
13		13	-	18	-	0						0	0	1				0						0	0	0	0	1	4	9	16	21	21	16	8	3	1	0
		12	-	17	-	2																								8	14	36	19	14	8
12	.5	12	-	18	-	1								0															0	1	4	11	22	27	22	10	3	0
12		12	-	19	-	0							0	0													0	0	0	0	1	4	11	21	27	23	11	2
11	.5	11	-	19	-	1								0																	0	0	2	9	22	31	27	8
11		11	-	20	-	0								0																0	0	0	1	4	13	29	35	19
10	.5	10	-	20	-	1																											0	1	5	18	41	35
10		10	-	21	-	0								0																			0	0	2	11	37	50
9	.5	9	-	21	-	1																														5	30	66
9		9	-	22	-	0																												0	0	2	19	78
8	.5	8	-	22	-	1																														0	12	87
8		8	-	23	-	0																														0	7	92
7	.5	7	-	23	-	1																															4	96
7		7	-	24	-	0																															2	98
6	.5	6	-	24	-	1																																100
6		6	-	25	-	0																															1	99
4	-5.5																																					100
3		3	-	28	-	0																															10	90
0		0	-	31	-	0																																100

Total:							3	2	3	3	4	3	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3