Carolina Panthers Playoff Chances 2015 50/50

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.4%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Panthers vs Patriots+5.8*-3.0-5.8
+0.7*-0.1-0.7
Bills vs Buccaneers+1.0*+0.4-1.0
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Jets vs Falcons+1.0*+0.2-1.0
+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Saints vs Cowboys-0.8*-0.7+0.8
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Lions vs Dolphins-0.3*+2.9+0.3
-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Colts vs Packers+0.3*+2.2-0.3
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Giants vs Chiefs-0.3*-2.3+0.3
-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Texans vs Cardinals+0.3*-2.3-0.3
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Titans vs Vikings+0.3*-1.4-0.3
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Bears vs Jaguars-0.2*+1.4+0.2
Ravens vs Redskins+0.2*-2.6-0.2
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
49ers vs Panthers-6.6*-0.9+6.6
-0.8*-0.2+0.8
Falcons vs Vikings-0.6+5.9+0.6
-0.1+0.6+0.0
Texans vs Buccaneers+0.9*+2.5-0.9
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Ravens vs Saints+0.9*+0.3-0.9
+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Eagles vs Jets-0.3*+3.6+0.3
-0.0*+0.4+0.0
Chiefs vs Packers+0.3*-1.9-0.3
+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Cardinals vs Bills-0.3*-0.5+0.3
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Seahawks vs Titans-0.2*-1.9+0.2
Cowboys vs Jaguars-0.2*+0.6+0.2
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Chargers vs Giants+0.2*-0.9-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Panthers finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
25.5-31In100231*
2525-6-0In10000546
24.524-6-1In10012
2424-7-0In99101,707
23.523-7-1In10042
2323-8-0In963015,143
22.522-8-1In963195
2222-9-0In889002013,079
21.521-9-1In861202212
2121-10-0100.0%72202060029,275*
20.520-10-1In59284081512
2020-11-0100.0453370131056,301*
19.519-11-1In3237101182872
1919-12-099.3183418321510093,338
18-11-2In2030302010
18.518-12-198.08282362310201,408
1818-13-093.641824923165100135,512
17-12-280.030102010102010
17.517-13-186.611022151921103101,995
1717-14-069.404151613221893100174,467
16-13-270.82113433178424
16.516-14-148.81716618251772002,375
1616-15-031.000414310192216831000199,151
15-14-242.121212151611519
15.515-15-116.50111141120241783002,462
1515-16-08.80070151321221793100198,592
14-15-25.9662929121817
14.514-16-14.304015132325178302,387
1414-17-02.4020002614222418920175,517
13-16-213.3137132713137715
13.513-17-10.7101514252818712,006
1313-18-00.50100027172727154137,026
12-17-2Out442211229
12.512-18-10.10002822332691,430
1212-19-00.1000141329351993,375
11-18-2Out202040205
11.511-19-10.10017234030874
1111-20-00.0000313384555,794
10-19-2Out1733506
10.510-20-1Out053163472
1010-21-0Out003257229,241*
9.59-21-1Out11981221
99-22-0Out01118913,528
8.58-22-1Out1990102
88-23-0Out04965,222
7.57-23-1Out10031
77-24-0Out1991,727
6.56-24-1Out1009
66-25-0Out0100446
0-5.5Out100254*
Total:37.4%66666666666666661,437,104

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Panthers vs Patriots-1.5*+0.3+1.5
Bills vs Buccaneers-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Jets vs Falcons-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Saints vs Cowboys+0.1+0.0-0.1
Giants vs Chiefs+0.0*+0.4-0.0
Lions vs Dolphins+0.0*-0.3-0.0
Texans vs Cardinals-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Titans vs Vikings-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Bears vs Jaguars+0.0*+0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
49ers vs Panthers+1.6*+0.3-1.6
Falcons vs Vikings+0.1-1.1-0.1
Texans vs Buccaneers-0.1-0.0+0.1
Ravens vs Saints-0.1*-0.2+0.1
Eagles vs Jets+0.0*-0.7-0.0
Chiefs vs Packers-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Seahawks vs Titans+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Cowboys vs Jaguars+0.0*-0.2-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
25.5-31100
2525-6-099000
24.524-6-1100
2424-7-098210
23.523-7-1955
2323-8-0924301
22.522-8-188731
2222-9-07711900020
21.521-9-1701611002
2121-10-05022200206000
20.520-10-1332626240801
2020-11-01827295700131100
19.519-11-162629810011712
1919-12-021618151623018450100
18-11-22030201020
18.518-12-10891918561679020
1818-13-0043151599111121425100
17-12-2301020101020
17.517-13-110108141325141659310
1717-14-00043121152111111151041000
16-13-2813844132181344
16.516-14-11178806314161811510
1616-15-000044903110612161611621000
15-14-2516215111651155
15.515-15-101291403917211811310
1515-16-0001600100261116181611631000
14-15-2612182918666
14.514-16-100400151020231911510
1414-17-0002000001261217191812731000
13-16-213133320713
13.513-17-110151219252010510
1313-18-001000149162121168310
12-17-24411221111
12.512-18-100014122127211030
1212-19-0000001411212722112
11-18-220202040
11.511-19-1012102533246
1111-20-00001414293518
10-19-217333317
10.510-20-105194234
1010-21-0002113749
9.59-21-1032967
99-22-0022078
8.58-22-131285
88-23-00892
7.57-23-1397
77-24-0298
6.56-24-1100
66-25-0199
0-5.5100
Total:33333333333333333333333333333333