Dallas Cowboys Playoff Chances 2015

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.3%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Saints vs Cowboys-5.7*+3.1+7.6
-0.7*+0.3+0.9
Ravens vs Redskins+0.8*+2.2-1.1
+0.1*+0.2-0.1
Giants vs Chiefs-0.8*+0.1+1.1
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Eagles vs Seahawks-0.6*-0.6+0.9
-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Jets vs Falcons+0.3*-0.9-0.3
Titans vs Vikings+0.2*-1.3-0.3
+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Panthers vs Patriots-0.2*+0.1+0.3
Texans vs Cardinals+0.2*-0.9-0.3
Bears vs Jaguars-0.2*+2.1+0.3
-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Colts vs Packers+0.2*-0.9-0.3
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Bills vs Buccaneers+0.2*-0.9-0.3
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Lions vs Dolphins-0.2*+0.7+0.3
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Cowboys vs Jaguars+5.1*-0.2-6.8
+0.6*+0.1-0.8
Eagles vs Jets-0.9*+1.2+1.1
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Chargers vs Giants+0.9*+1.2-1.1
+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Redskins vs Bears-0.6*-1.0+0.8
-0.0*-0.1+0.1
Cardinals vs Bills-0.2*+0.5+0.3
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Seahawks vs Titans-0.2*+0.3+0.3
Ravens vs Saints+0.2*-0.5-0.3
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Chiefs vs Packers+0.2*-2.9-0.3
+0.0*-0.3-0.0
Texans vs Buccaneers+0.2*-1.6-0.3
+0.0*-0.2-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Cowboys finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
28-31In100338*
2727-4-0In98246
25.5-26In100264*
2525-6-0In100001,196
24.524-6-1In10016
2424-7-0In99104,493*
23.523-7-1In971174
2323-8-0In9730113,489
22.522-8-1In973248
2222-9-0In89802036,255*
21.521-9-1In851302659
2121-10-0100.0%74191050081,108*
20.520-10-1In652520711,485
2020-11-0100.04832701210157,888*
19.519-11-199.8353611116102,547
1919-12-099.52035173204000268,532*
18.518-12-199.01129234248104,064
1818-13-094.6419249231541000399,863
17-12-296.41111254434428
17.517-13-188.61112213212092005,715
1717-14-071.7041616132217831000522,608
16-13-271.010192310101610331
16.516-14-154.90110177192315620007,302
1616-15-032.9005153111921168310000599,863
15-14-234.6813410231323652
15.515-15-118.20211141321231572007,569
1515-16-09.60180151320221793100605,348
14-15-29.3727123316165243
14.514-16-14.304015142424178207,155
1414-17-02.5020002613222419920536,605
13-16-2Out333114171714336
13.513-17-11.31002615252718516,081
1313-18-00.601000027172727164419,381
12-17-2Out3615321821634
12.512-18-10.30002921342494,279
1212-19-00.10001313283619286,696
11-18-2Out926481723
11.511-19-10.100152142322,648
1111-20-00.00002133846172,060*
10.510-20-1Out1732601,504
1010-21-0Out003247289,222*
9.59-21-1Out021979709
99-22-0Out01118940,371*
8.58-22-1Out0594265
88-23-0Out049615,822*
7.57-23-1Out10094
77-24-0Out01995,106
6.56-24-1Out10033
66-25-0Out01001,357
0-5.5Out100707*
Total:37.3%66676666666666664,311,312

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Saints vs Cowboys+1.3*-0.4-1.8
Ravens vs Redskins-0.1-0.4+0.1
Giants vs Chiefs+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Eagles vs Seahawks+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Texans vs Cardinals-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Panthers vs Patriots+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Titans vs Vikings-0.0*+0.3+0.0
Bears vs Jaguars+0.0*-0.5-0.0
Colts vs Packers-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Lions vs Dolphins+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Bills vs Buccaneers-0.0*+0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Cowboys vs Jaguars-1.3*+0.0+1.7
Texans vs Buccaneers-0.0+0.4+0.0
Eagles vs Jets+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Chargers vs Giants-0.1*-0.2+0.1
Redskins vs Bears+0.1*+0.2-0.1
Steelers vs Colts*+0.0-0.1-0.0
Cardinals vs Bills+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Chiefs vs Packers-0.0*+0.6+0.0
Seahawks vs Titans+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Ravens vs Saints-0.0*+0.2+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
28-31100
2727-4-0982
25.5-26100
2525-6-099000
24.524-6-1100
2424-7-097210
23.523-7-196111
2323-8-0916301
22.522-8-19063
2222-9-0751480020
21.521-9-168171302
2121-10-047261911005000
20.520-10-1333224120701
2020-11-01731275700121100
19.519-11-16292610100115110
1919-12-021818171523016440000
18.518-12-101091918541778010
1818-13-004316141091111213241000
17-12-2111111144182544
17.517-13-110118141126161658200
1717-14-00043131151121012149410000
16-13-210191310103613663
16.516-14-1010999073161316104100
1616-15-0000451003110512161511521000
15-14-28410410817817862
15.515-15-1022101403917211893100
1515-16-000117001002611161816116310000
14-15-27221221191912222
14.514-16-1004001411182321125100
1414-17-0002000001361217191712631000
13-16-2866113117148
13.513-17-110001511222520103100
1313-18-000100000149162121168310
12-17-233241515241233
12.512-18-10014112327211030
1212-19-000001411202723112
11-18-241793022134
11.511-19-1000392333258
1111-20-00001413293519
10.510-20-1015204034
1010-21-00002113751
9.59-21-1152767
99-22-0022078
8.58-22-10991
88-23-00793
7.57-23-1100
77-24-00298
6.56-24-1100
66-25-0199
0-5.5100
Total:33333333333333333333333333333333