Minnesota Vikings Playoff Chances 2015

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 38%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Titans vs Vikings-5.2*+2.2+6.9
-0.6+0.4+0.8
Colts vs Packers+0.9*-1.0-1.1
+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Lions vs Dolphins-0.8*-1.0+1.1
-0.1-0.1+0.1
Bears vs Jaguars-0.8*+0.4+1.1
-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Ravens vs Redskins+0.3*+0.4-0.3
Jets vs Falcons+0.2*+0.9-0.3
+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Bills vs Buccaneers+0.2*-0.1-0.3
Giants vs Chiefs-0.2*+0.7+0.3
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Texans vs Cardinals+0.2*-1.4-0.3
+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Panthers vs Patriots-0.2*+0.3+0.2
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Falcons vs Vikings-5.7*+0.8+7.6
-0.7*+0.1+0.9
Chiefs vs Packers+0.8*+1.2-1.1
+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Redskins vs Bears+0.6*-0.6-0.9
+0.0*-0.1-0.1
Rams vs Lions+0.6*-3.0-0.8
+0.0*-0.3-0.1
Chargers vs Giants+0.2*-0.4-0.3
Seahawks vs Titans-0.2*+0.8+0.3
Ravens vs Saints+0.2*+0.1-0.3
Cowboys vs Jaguars-0.2*+0.3+0.3
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Texans vs Buccaneers+0.2*-0.4-0.3
+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Eagles vs Jets-0.2*-1.8+0.3
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Cardinals vs Bills-0.2*-1.0+0.2
-0.0-0.2+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Vikings finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
25.5-31In100652*
2525-6-0In100001,226
24.524-6-1In10023
2424-7-0In99104,445
23.523-7-1In96484
2323-8-0In97200013,468
22.522-8-1In9163229
2222-9-0In90800235,625*
21.521-9-1In81136610
2121-10-0In7519105080,639*
20.520-10-1In632530901,357
2020-11-0100.0%49326012100157,661*
19.519-11-1100.034389116202,514
1919-12-099.6223517220400268,983
18-11-295.020402015520
18.518-12-198.911302342381004,079
1818-13-095.2520249231441000399,999
17-12-293.1101474814729
17.517-13-189.02112213212182005,925*
1717-14-073.8051716142216720000521,191
16-13-277.131720112617635
16.516-14-154.2011016819221561007,239
1616-15-035.400515312202114720000599,415
15-14-234.0811693613114253
15.515-15-118.102111513222315720007,780*
1515-16-010.50180261421211572100604,511
14-15-211.5264615131915134252
14.514-16-14.50400151522241782007,254*
1414-17-02.8030002715232417720537,633
13-16-212.112333216213033
13.513-17-10.901002615262717616,081
1313-18-00.601000028182726143419,884
12-17-2Out61325381932
12.512-18-10.20002921322784,407*
1212-19-00.100001414293417287,194
11-18-2Out625383116
11.511-19-10.100162141312,756
1111-20-00.000003143944172,044
10-19-2Out6395618
10.510-20-1Out1732601,557
1010-21-0Out004257189,905*
9.59-21-1Out21880745
99-22-0Out01118840,389*
8.58-22-1Out595269
88-23-0Out049615,675
7.57-23-1Out199106
77-24-0Out1995,262
6.56-24-1Out10032
66-25-0Out01001,454
0-5.5Out100722*
Total:38.0%66676666666666664,311,312

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Titans vs Vikings+1.3*-0.8-1.7
Colts vs Packers-0.1*+0.2+0.1
Lions vs Dolphins+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Bears vs Jaguars+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Ravens vs Redskins-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Texans vs Cardinals-0.0*+0.4+0.0
Jets vs Falcons-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Bills vs Buccaneers-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Giants vs Chiefs+0.0*-0.2-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Falcons vs Vikings+1.3*-0.2-1.8
Chiefs vs Packers-0.1-0.3+0.1
Redskins vs Bears-0.1*+0.2+0.1
Rams vs Lions-0.1*+0.6+0.1
Texans vs Buccaneers-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Chargers vs Giants-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Seahawks vs Titans+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Cowboys vs Jaguars+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Ravens vs Saints-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Eagles vs Jets+0.0*+0.3-0.0
Cardinals vs Bills+0.0*+0.3-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
25.5-31100
2525-6-099100
24.524-6-1964
2424-7-097210
23.523-7-19424
2323-8-09162000
22.522-8-185663
2222-9-07614800020
21.521-9-166161206
2121-10-04827181100500
20.520-10-134292423090
2020-11-017322756001111000
19.519-11-1727271190115120
1919-12-02191817152201644000
18-11-2515152510105105
18.518-12-10109211954016780100
1818-13-005317141081111212241000
17-12-2103103317313107
17.517-13-120108141125161558300
1717-14-0005314115212101213831000
16-13-239911939917149
16.516-14-1011988083161316114100
1616-15-000005510031115121614105210000
15-14-28666961123132642
15.515-15-100229150391721179410
1515-16-0011700200261116181611631000
14-15-2264224121510191762
14.514-16-1004000131119232012510
1414-17-0003000001361217191712621000
13-16-2123912159216633
13.513-17-101001511202620104100
1313-18-000100000149162121168310
12-17-2622312813
12.512-18-10014122127211020
1212-19-000001411212722112
11-18-266331
11.511-19-1000392232268
1111-20-000001413293518
10-19-26333922
10.510-20-115204035
1010-21-00002113750
9.59-21-1062866
99-22-0022077
8.58-22-101090
88-23-00892
7.57-23-1397
77-24-00298
6.56-24-1100
66-25-0199
0-5.5100
Total:34343434333333333333333333333333