Tampa Bay Buccaneers Playoff Chances 2015

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.9%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Bills vs Buccaneers-5.2*+0.1+6.9
-0.6*-0.1+0.8
Jets vs Falcons+0.8*-1.3-1.1
+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Panthers vs Patriots-0.8*-2.1+1.1
-0.1*-0.2+0.1
Saints vs Cowboys-0.6*-1.3+0.8
-0.0*-0.1+0.1
Bears vs Jaguars-0.2*+0.2+0.3
Colts vs Packers+0.2*+0.1-0.3
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Texans vs Cardinals+0.2*+0.1-0.3
Giants vs Chiefs-0.2*-0.1+0.3
Titans vs Vikings+0.2*-0.1-0.3
Lions vs Dolphins-0.2*+2.1+0.3
-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Ravens vs Redskins+0.2*+2.1-0.3
+0.0*+0.2-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Texans vs Buccaneers-5.2*-0.6+6.9
-0.6*+0.1+0.8
Ravens vs Saints+0.8*+0.1-1.1
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Falcons vs Vikings-0.6*+0.8+0.8
-0.0*+0.1+0.1
49ers vs Panthers+0.6*+0.5-0.8
+0.0*+0.1-0.1
Cowboys vs Jaguars-0.2*+1.0+0.3
Chargers vs Giants+0.2*+2.0-0.3
+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Chiefs vs Packers+0.2*+0.9-0.3
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Eagles vs Jets-0.2*+0.7+0.3
Seahawks vs Titans-0.2*+1.5+0.3
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Cardinals vs Bills-0.2*-1.9+0.3
-0.0*-0.3+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Buccaneers finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
25.5-31In100663*
2525-6-0In10001,210
24.524-6-1In10020
2424-7-0In99104,349
23.523-7-1In98293
2323-8-0In9730113,858*
22.522-8-1In9451286
2222-9-0In90802035,606*
21.521-9-1In871112662
2121-10-0In7518106080,596*
20.520-10-1In64243901,368
2020-11-0100.0%5031601210157,877*
19.519-11-1In35361011722,548
1919-12-099.62235162214000268,544
18-11-2In25401052020
18.518-12-198.71129235248104,153
1818-13-095.052024824144100400,405
17-12-292.028242812825
17.517-13-188.11112312202092005,836
1717-14-073.7051615142217720000523,080
16-13-272.71215912241563333
16.516-14-154.8011017720221562007,165
1616-15-035.000514312212114620000597,760
15-14-225.07145252025544
15.515-15-118.30211141422221472007,647
1515-16-010.000170271522221572000606,585
14-15-217.01711172611134247
14.514-16-14.4040016142323178207,266
1414-17-02.60020002716232316720536,699
13-16-2Out2221282319543
13.513-17-11.11001616252717616,016
1313-18-00.501000138182725143419,069
12-17-2Out5101033291421
12.512-18-10.10003821332594,333
1212-19-00.100001414293417287,227*
11.511-19-1Out0162141312,638
1111-20-00.000003143944172,086*
10.510-20-1Out0533611,475
1010-21-00.00004257089,270*
9.59-21-1Out11583744
99-22-0Out01118840,492*
8.58-22-1Out496330
88-23-0Out049615,630*
7.57-23-1Out199103
77-24-0Out1995,179
6.56-24-1Out39735
66-25-0Out01001,436
5.55-25-1Out1002
55-26-0Out0100335
0-4.5Out100403*
Total:37.9%66666666666666664,311,312

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Bills vs Buccaneers+1.3*+0.0-1.7
Jets vs Falcons-0.1*+0.2+0.1
Panthers vs Patriots+0.1*+0.4-0.1
Saints vs Cowboys+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Bears vs Jaguars+0.0+0.1-0.0
Giants vs Chiefs+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Lions vs Dolphins+0.0*-0.3-0.0
Colts vs Packers-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Ravens vs Redskins-0.0*-0.3+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Texans vs Buccaneers+1.3*-0.2-1.7
Ravens vs Saints-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Falcons vs Vikings+0.1*-0.2-0.1
49ers vs Panthers-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Cardinals vs Bills+0.0*+0.5-0.0
Cowboys vs Jaguars+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Chargers vs Giants-0.0*-0.3+0.0
Seahawks vs Titans+0.0*-0.3-0.0
Chiefs vs Packers-0.0*-0.2+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
26-31100
25.525-5-18614
2525-6-010000
24.524-6-1100
2424-7-097210
23.523-7-19252
2323-8-0916301
22.522-8-187751
2222-9-07614800200
21.521-9-166211112
2121-10-04827181100500
20.520-10-1313323130900
2020-11-01832265600111100
19.519-11-1728251010011512
1919-12-021918171422017440000
18.518-12-1011920184501687010
1818-13-005317141081111212241000
17-12-2424168820848
17.517-13-110118151116151559200
1717-14-0005313105213101213931000
16-13-212156339121218333
16.516-14-1010989073161316104100
1616-15-00000551003111512161410521000
15-14-275955925181422
15.515-15-102210140391722179310
1515-16-000011700200261116181611631000
14-15-241324619172166
14.514-16-100400001411202319125100
1414-17-000020000001361217191712621000
13-16-22573014231252
13.513-17-11001512202520114100
1313-18-000100000149162121168310
12-17-2141438295
12.512-18-10014132326211020
1212-19-0000001411212722112
11.511-19-100392231268
1111-20-000001414293518
10.510-20-1014194235
1010-21-000002113750
9.59-21-1043066
99-22-00022077
8.58-22-11891
88-23-00892
7.57-23-1199
77-24-0298
6.56-24-1694
66-25-0199
5.55-25-1100
55-26-00100
0-4.5100
Total:34343333333333333333333333333333