Jacksonville Jaguars Playoff Chances 2015

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 33.2%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Bears vs Jaguars-5.0*-0.4+6.7
-0.6*-0.0+0.8
Texans vs Cardinals-0.8*-0.7+1.0
-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Colts vs Packers-0.6*-0.1+0.8
-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Titans vs Vikings-0.6*+1.5+0.8
-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Bills vs Buccaneers-0.3*+1.2+0.3
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Jets vs Falcons-0.3*-1.2+0.3
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Panthers vs Patriots+0.3*+0.3-0.3
Lions vs Dolphins+0.2*-1.4-0.3
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Ravens vs Redskins-0.2*+0.8+0.3
Giants vs Chiefs+0.2*+1.8-0.3
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Cowboys vs Jaguars-5.0*+0.9+6.7
-0.6+0.0+0.8
Texans vs Buccaneers-0.7*+1.2+1.0
-0.1*+0.2+0.1
Seahawks vs Titans+0.6*-0.7-0.8
+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Steelers vs Colts+0.4*-1.5-0.5
Eagles vs Jets+0.3*-0.1-0.4
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Chargers vs Giants-0.3*+0.8+0.3
Ravens vs Saints-0.3*+0.2+0.3
Cardinals vs Bills+0.2*+0.2-0.3
Chiefs vs Packers-0.2*+1.3+0.3
-0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Jaguars finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
25.5-31In100665*
2525-6-0In100001,200
24.524-6-1In10028
2424-7-0In98114,450
23.523-7-1In982108
2323-8-0In9520313,805
22.522-8-1In8893285
2222-9-0In868007035,998*
21.521-9-1In811108683
2121-10-0100.0%681710140080,655*
20.520-10-1In5723201811,371
2020-11-099.941275024200157,795
19-10-2In3333881712
19.519-11-199.828298130402,593*
1919-12-098.81626132339100268,666
18-11-2In24143324521
18.518-12-196.97211633515304,139
1818-13-090.8313166312281000399,707
17-12-291.7883838824
17.517-13-180.9061382529144105,855
1717-14-061.803991427221141000522,535
16-13-268.661192617236335
16.516-14-139.70058620282093107,183
1616-15-022.70027311212418931000598,057
15-14-213.042728222411246
15.515-15-18.5140411232618921007,593*
1515-16-04.400301513212418103100604,226
14-15-22.224132231187245
14.514-16-11.6010151322261993007,380
1414-17-00.8010002614222519930538,399
13-16-2Out8133525513340
13.513-17-10.3001513252819815,924
1313-18-00.10000027172727164419,587
12-17-23.3323231730330
12.512-18-1Out02720332994,436
1212-19-00.00001313283619286,903
11-18-2Out831382326
11.511-19-1Out0142142322,723
1111-20-00.000002133846171,869*
10.510-20-1Out01530651,485
1010-21-0Out003247390,274*
9.59-21-1Out011584665
99-22-0Out001118940,404
8.58-22-1Out694295
88-23-0Out049615,719
7.57-23-1Out10099
77-24-0Out1995,094*
6.56-24-1Out10035
66-25-0Out01001,428
0-5.5Out100717*
Total:33.2%55438877777766674,311,312

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Bears vs Jaguars+1.2*+0.0-1.7
Texans vs Cardinals+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Titans vs Vikings+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Colts vs Packers+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Panthers vs Patriots-0.0-0.1+0.0
Jets vs Falcons+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Bills vs Buccaneers+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Ravens vs Redskins+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Lions vs Dolphins-0.0*+0.2+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Cowboys vs Jaguars+1.2*-0.2-1.7
Texans vs Buccaneers+0.1*-0.5-0.1
Seahawks vs Titans-0.1*+0.2+0.1
Steelers vs Colts-0.1*+0.2+0.1
Eagles vs Jets-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Cardinals vs Bills-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Chiefs vs Packers+0.0*-0.2-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
26.5-31100
2626-5-01000
25.525-5-1100
2525-6-099000
24.524-6-1100
2424-7-097111
23.523-7-19532
2323-8-0914203
22.522-8-183593
2222-9-076108000700
21.521-9-1661511008
2121-10-048201701013000
20.520-10-13324221201701
2020-11-017242435002312000
19.519-11-1721236801282400
1919-12-021415111212028690100
18.518-12-1077131323026915030
1818-13-00321010660161520282000
17-12-288172125138
17.517-13-1005577181723714410
1717-14-000327632121313191351000
16-13-2666932314317113
16.516-14-1000454064161721155100
1616-15-0000225031106141917126210000
15-14-222279172020157
15.515-15-1113004131019251910310
1515-16-00003001002612171917126310000
14-15-22271324222111122
14.514-16-10010001411202321125100
1414-17-00010000001371218201812721000
13-16-238101820231533
13.513-17-1000161220242111410
1313-18-000000149162121168310
12-17-2331327202733
12.512-18-1015112228211030
1212-19-000001411212722112
11-18-244121235278
11.511-19-100382432267
1111-20-000001413293518
10.510-20-114194135
1010-21-0002113750
9.59-21-1042670
99-22-00022078
8.58-22-11989
88-23-00792
7.57-23-1298
77-24-0298
6.56-24-1100
66-25-0199
0-5.5100
Total:32222221544444433333333333333333