Green Bay Packers Playoff Chances 2015

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.7%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Colts vs Packers-5.1*+0.7+6.9
-0.6*+0.0+0.8
Titans vs Vikings+0.9*-0.9-1.1
+0.1-0.1-0.1
Bears vs Jaguars-0.8*+1.6+1.1
-0.1*+0.2+0.1
Lions vs Dolphins-0.8*-1.3+1.1
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Jets vs Falcons+0.2*-0.2-0.3
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Giants vs Chiefs-0.2*-0.2+0.3
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Panthers vs Patriots-0.2*+0.7+0.3
Texans vs Cardinals+0.2*-2.1-0.3
+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Bills vs Buccaneers+0.2*+1.2-0.3
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Ravens vs Redskins+0.2*+1.0-0.3
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Chiefs vs Packers-5.2*+2.6+6.9
-0.6+0.3+0.8
Falcons vs Vikings+0.6*-0.5-0.9
+0.0*-0.1-0.1
Rams vs Lions+0.6*+0.1-0.8
+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Redskins vs Bears+0.6*-0.8-0.8
+0.0*-0.2-0.1
Texans vs Buccaneers+0.3*-0.6-0.3
Chargers vs Giants+0.2*+1.4-0.3
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Cardinals vs Bills-0.2*-0.1+0.3
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Eagles vs Jets-0.2*+2.2+0.3
-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Seahawks vs Titans-0.2*-1.6+0.3
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Cowboys vs Jaguars-0.2*+0.5+0.3
Ravens vs Saints+0.2*+0.9-0.2
+0.0*+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Packers finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
25.5-31In100649*
2525-6-0In100001,206
24.524-6-1In10023
2424-7-0In99104,500*
23.523-7-1In97394
2323-8-0In9730113,753
22.522-8-1In96300246
2222-9-0In90802035,729*
21.521-9-1In8015140665
2121-10-0In7519105081,458*
20.520-10-1In622540801,403
2020-11-0100.0%4932601210158,143*
19.519-11-199.9343512116102,704
1919-12-099.52135172204000269,040
18-11-2In184532522
18.518-12-198.81229224248104,058
1818-13-094.952024823154100399,759
17-12-294.93331881815539
17.517-13-189.01112312202192005,678
1717-14-073.0051616142217820000521,242
16-13-282.871417143110729
16.516-14-154.001916820231561007,162
1616-15-034.30051431220211572100598,439
15-14-246.2625412311066252
15.515-15-118.10111151422221572007,753
1515-16-09.90180261421221683100604,083
14-15-26.1426103116148849
14.514-16-14.4040016132225178207,253
1414-17-02.6020002715232417820538,645
13-16-27.1722211924172542
13.513-17-11.11001616252617616,095
1313-18-00.6100028182726143419,470
12-17-2Out5103810291021
12.512-18-10.20002822322794,337
1212-19-00.10001414293518286,776
11-18-2Out13335315
11.511-19-1Out0162042312,710
1111-20-00.00003143944172,008*
10.510-20-1Out0634591,460
1010-21-0Out003257189,945*
9.59-21-1Out11781735
99-22-0Out01118840,433*
8.58-22-1Out892287
88-23-0Out0049615,716
7.57-23-1Out496105
77-24-0Out1995,153
6.56-24-1Out10029
66-25-0Out01001,371
0-5.5Out100728*
Total:37.7%66666666666666664,311,312

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Colts vs Packers+1.3-0.1-1.7
Bears vs Jaguars+0.1-0.3-0.1
Lions vs Dolphins+0.1+0.2-0.1
Titans vs Vikings-0.1*+0.2+0.1
Texans vs Cardinals-0.0*+0.4+0.0
Giants vs Chiefs+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Bills vs Buccaneers-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Jets vs Falcons-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Ravens vs Redskins-0.0*-0.3+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Chiefs vs Packers+1.3-0.6-1.7
Falcons vs Vikings-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Rams vs Lions-0.1+0.0+0.1
Redskins vs Bears-0.1*+0.2+0.1
Cardinals vs Bills+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Chargers vs Giants-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Seahawks vs Titans+0.0*+0.3-0.0
Eagles vs Jets+0.0*-0.3-0.0
Cowboys vs Jaguars+0.0*-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
25.5-31100
2525-6-099100
24.524-6-1100
2424-7-097210
23.523-7-19433
2323-8-0916301
22.522-8-1879300
2222-9-07614800200
21.521-9-16219150140
2121-10-04827181100500
20.520-10-1323124240800
2020-11-017322756000111100
19.519-11-17272510120115110
1919-12-021918171522016440000
18-11-21814322755
18.518-12-1111920174401778010
1818-13-00531714108111121324100
17-12-2382681081081335
17.517-13-110118141026151668200
1717-14-00053131152121012139410000
16-13-2731017771714107
16.516-14-1010988073161317114100
1616-15-0000551003111512161510521000
15-14-224817412417138822
15.515-15-1001210105021017221710310
1515-16-000117002002611161816116310000
14-15-2422461816148186
14.514-16-10040001411182321125100
1414-17-000200000136121719171262100
13-16-27107191212267
13.513-17-11002411202421114100
1313-18-001000149162121168310
12-17-21014293314
12.512-18-100014132127211030
1212-19-000001411212722112
11-18-2206713
11.511-19-1003102332257
1111-20-00001413283518
10.510-20-105194134
1010-21-0002113750
9.59-21-1042867
99-22-00022078
8.58-22-11189
88-23-000892
7.57-23-1892
77-24-0298
6.56-24-1100
66-25-0199
0-5.5100
Total:34333333333333333333333333333333