SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sometimes I
forget the point

Houston Texans Playoff Chances 2015

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 67%

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Texans vs Cardinals	+4.8*+0.2-6.5		+0.5*-0.0-0.7
Titans vs Vikings	-0.8*-1.0+1.0		-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Colts vs Packers	-0.7*-0.2+1.0		-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Bears vs Jaguars	+0.7*-0.6-1.0		+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Jets vs Falcons	-0.2*-1.8+0.3		-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Lions vs Dolphins	+0.2*-0.9-0.3		+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Bills vs Buccaneers	-0.2*-0.6+0.3
Panthers vs Patriots	+0.2*+2.3-0.3		+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Giants vs Chiefs	+0.2*-0.7-0.3
Ravens vs Redskins	-0.2*-0.2+0.3

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Texans vs Buccaneers	+4.9*-1.7-6.6		+0.5*-0.2-0.7
Cowboys vs Jaguars	+0.8*-1.3-1.1		+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Seahawks vs Titans	+0.8*-0.2-1.0		+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Steelers vs Colts	+0.6*-0.1-0.8		+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Chiefs vs Packers	-0.2*+1.8+0.3		-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Cardinals vs Bills	+0.2*-1.2-0.3		+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Ravens vs Saints	-0.2*-2.0+0.3		-0.0-0.2+0.0
Eagles vs Jets	+0.2*+0.8-0.3		+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Chargers vs Giants	-0.2*-0.7+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Texans finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

27.5	-31						In		100																613	*
27		27	-	4	-	0	In		100	0			0												1,303
26	.5	26	-	4	-	1	In		100																17
26		26	-	5	-	0	In		100	0															5,010
25	.5	25	-	5	-	1	In		100																94
25		25	-	6	-	0	In		100	0			0												16,503	*
24	.5	24	-	6	-	1	In		100	0															297
24		24	-	7	-	0	In		99	1	0		0												44,371	*
23	.5	23	-	7	-	1	In		98	2			0												757
23		23	-	8	-	0	In		96	3	0		1	0											99,405
22	.5	22	-	8	-	1	In		94	5	0		1												1,593
22		22	-	9	-	0	In		89	8	0	0	2	0											189,489	*
21	.5	21	-	9	-	1	In		84	12	0		4	0											2,915
21		21	-	10	-	0	100.0	%	73	20	2	0	6	0	0										313,037
		20	-	9	-	2	In		67	22			11												18
20	.5	20	-	10	-	1	In		63	25	3	0	9	0											4,675	*
20		20	-	11	-	0	100.0		47	33	7	0	13	1	0	0									448,041
		19	-	10	-	2	In		46	29	8		17												24
19	.5	19	-	11	-	1	99.9		33	37	11	1	16	2	0										6,130
19		19	-	12	-	0	99.4		19	34	17	3	21	5	1	0	0								558,453
		18	-	11	-	2	97.7		18	43	11		18	7	2										44
18	.5	18	-	12	-	1	98.3		10	29	22	5	24	9	2	0									7,607
18		18	-	13	-	0	93.9		4	18	24	9	23	16	5	1	0	0	0						611,077
		17	-	12	-	2	91.7		2	13	29	17	19	13	8										48
17	.5	17	-	13	-	1	86.6		1	10	22	13	19	21	10	2	1	0							7,741
17		17	-	14	-	0	70.0		0	4	15	16	13	22	18	9	3	1	0	0	0				587,312
		16	-	13	-	2	64.4			4	4	9	11	36	22	7	4		2						45
16	.5	16	-	14	-	1	50.4		0	1	9	16	6	18	23	17	8	2	0	0	0				6,985
16		16	-	15	-	0	31.4		0	0	4	14	3	10	19	22	16	8	3	1	0	0	0		497,243
		15	-	14	-	2	16.1				6	6		3	13	32	19	16	3						31
15	.5	15	-	15	-	1	16.2		0	0	2	10	1	4	12	21	24	17	8	2	1				5,654
15		15	-	16	-	0	8.8			0	0	7	0	1	5	13	20	22	17	9	3	1	0	0	371,869
		14	-	15	-	2	9.4							9		3	25	28	22	9	3				32
14	.5	14	-	16	-	1	4.7				0	4	0	0	1	4	13	23	25	18	8	3	0	0	3,943
14		14	-	17	-	0	2.2			0	0	2	0	0	0	2	6	13	22	25	18	9	2	0	245,219	*
13	.5	13	-	17	-	1	0.9					1				0	1	5	14	24	28	20	7	1	2,467
13		13	-	18	-	0	0.5				0	0			0	0	0	2	7	17	27	27	16	4	143,297	*
12	.5	12	-	18	-	1	0.1					0						0	2	7	22	31	28	10	1,338
12		12	-	19	-	0	0.1					0					0	0	1	3	12	28	36	19	72,942	*
11	.5	11	-	19	-	1	Out													1	5	19	43	33	593
11		11	-	20	-	0	0.0					0							0	0	2	13	37	47	33,099	*
10	.5	10	-	20	-	1	Out														0	5	31	64	254
10		10	-	21	-	0	0.0					0								0	0	3	24	73	13,028
9	.5	9	-	21	-	1	Out															3	20	77	96
9		9	-	22	-	0	Out															0	11	88	4,440
8	.5	8	-	22	-	1	Out																8	92	36
8		8	-	23	-	0	Out																4	96	1,363
7	.5	7	-	23	-	1	Out																	100	6
7		7	-	24	-	0	Out																0	100	325
0	-6.5						Out																	100	433	*

Total:							67.0	%	21	13	9	6	10	7	6	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	4,311,312

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Texans vs Cardinals	-1.1*+0.1+1.4
Panthers vs Patriots	-0.0-0.5+0.0
Titans vs Vikings	+0.1*+0.0-0.2
Bears vs Jaguars	-0.1*-0.0+0.2
Colts vs Packers	+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Ravens vs Redskins	+0.0+0.1-0.0
Lions vs Dolphins	-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Giants vs Chiefs	-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Jets vs Falcons	+0.0*+0.4-0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Texans vs Buccaneers	-1.1*+0.4+1.4
Cowboys vs Jaguars	-0.1+0.1+0.2
Seahawks vs Titans	-0.1*+0.0+0.2
Steelers vs Colts	-0.1+0.1+0.1
Cardinals vs Bills	-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Chiefs vs Packers	+0.0*-0.4-0.0
Ravens vs Saints	+0.0*+0.4-0.0
Eagles vs Jets	-0.0*-0.2+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

27.5	-31						100
27		27	-	4	-	0	100	0	0						0
26	.5	26	-	4	-	1	100
26		26	-	5	-	0	100	0	0
25	.5	25	-	5	-	1	100
25		25	-	6	-	0	100	0	0						0
24	.5	24	-	6	-	1	100		0
24		24	-	7	-	0	98	1	1		0				0
23	.5	23	-	7	-	1	96	2	2						0
23		23	-	8	-	0	94	3	3		0				1		0
22	.5	22	-	8	-	1	88	6	5		0				1
22		22	-	9	-	0	81	8	8	0	0		0		2	0	0
21	.5	21	-	9	-	1	69	16	12	0	0				4		0
21		21	-	10	-	0	54	18	19	0	2	0	0		6	0	0		0
20	.5	20	-	10	-	1	36	27	24	1	3		0		9		0
20		20	-	11	-	0	22	25	29	3	7	0	0		12	0	1	0	0	0
19	.5	19	-	11	-	1	8	25	28	9	11	0	1		15	1	2		0
19		19	-	12	-	0	3	16	22	12	16	1	3	0	19	3	5	0	1	0	0
		18	-	11	-	2	7	11	34	9	9	2			16	2	7		2
18	.5	18	-	12	-	1	0	10	10	19	18	4	5	0	17	7	9	0	2	0
18		18	-	13	-	0	0	4	4	14	17	7	9	0	14	10	14	1	5	1	0	0	0
		17	-	12	-	2		2		13	21	8	17		15	4	10	2	8
17	.5	17	-	13	-	1		1	0	9	9	14	11	2	6	14	17	4	10	3	1	0
17		17	-	14	-	0		0	0	4	4	11	12	4	2	11	13	9	15	10	4	1	0	0	0	0
		16	-	13	-	2			2	2	2	2	9			11	31	4	13	11	9		2
16	.5	16	-	14	-	1		0		1	0	8	8	8	0	6	4	14	14	17	12	5	1	0	0
16		16	-	15	-	0		0		0	0	4	5	8	0	3	1	9	6	12	16	15	11	6	2	1	0	0	0	0
		15	-	14	-	2						6	3	3				3	3	16	26	19	10		10
15	.5	15	-	15	-	1		0		0	0	2	2	9		1		4	0	3	9	18	21	18	10	3	1	0
15		15	-	16	-	0				0		0	1	6		0		1	0	0	2	6	11	16	18	16	12	7	3	1	0	0	0
		14	-	15	-	2												9				6	13	13	9	16	19	13	3
14	.5	14	-	16	-	1						0	0	4		0		0				0	1	4	10	18	24	21	12	5	1	0
14		14	-	17	-	0				0		0	0	2		0		0			0	0	0	1	2	6	12	17	19	18	12	7	3	1	0	0	0	0
13	.5	13	-	17	-	1								1												0	1	4	12	20	24	21	12	4	1	0
13		13	-	18	-	0						0		0										0	0	0	0	1	3	8	15	21	22	16	9	3	1	0
12	.5	12	-	18	-	1								0															0	0	4	12	19	28	23	11	3	1
12		12	-	19	-	0								0														0	0	0	1	4	11	20	27	23	12	3
11	.5	11	-	19	-	1																									0	0	1	8	24	32	24	10
11		11	-	20	-	0								0																0	0	0	1	4	12	28	36	20
10	.5	10	-	20	-	1																												0	6	18	40	35
10		10	-	21	-	0								0																				0	2	11	36	51
9	.5	9	-	21	-	1																														6	25	69
9		9	-	22	-	0																													0	2	19	79
8	.5	8	-	22	-	1																															14	86
8		8	-	23	-	0																														0	7	93
7	.5	7	-	23	-	1																															17	83
7		7	-	24	-	0																															1	99
6	.5	6	-	24	-	1																																100
6		6	-	25	-	0																															1	99
0	-5																																					100

Total:							14	7	8	5	6	3	4	2	7	4	5	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0