Pittsburgh Revolution Playoff Chances 1

Lost to Phoenix 1-4, playoff odds down 1.7 to 0.2%

10 points 4 8-2

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Lottery Eligibility	100.0*	Average seed
Pittsburgh 1 Phoenix 4	-0.8		No		+11.6		-0.3
Denver 0 Florida 1	-0.5				-0.5
New York 0 Los Angeles 2					-0.7		+0.0
Winnipeg 1 Calgary 4					-0.7
Halifax 2 Ontario 6					-0.5

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Lottery Eligibility	100.0*	Average seed
Pittsburgh vs Florida	+0.5+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.2		+0.0NoNoNoNoNo		-12.4-12.3-12.3-3.7-3.7+5.5		+0.3+0.3+0.3+0.1+0.1-0.1
Philadelphia vs Denver	-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0-0.0+0.1				-0.2+0.5+0.4+1.4+1.4+1.5		+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
New York vs Anaheim					+3.9+3.7+4.0+1.5+1.7-0.8		-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0
Ottawa vs Halifax					-0.5+1.3+1.4+3.4+3.8+3.4
Phoenix vs Winnipeg					*+0.0+1.8+1.7+1.5+1.5-0.6		-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed								Lottery
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Eligibility		Count

54		22	0		-	0	In		1.5	%	13	72	15						No		1,319
42	-43						In		No					100					No		4	*
41		14	5		-	3	80.0	%	No				10	70	20				No		10	*
40		13	5		-	4	76.6		No				6	70	23				No		47	*
39		13	6		-	3	59.5		No				2	58	40				No		126	*
38		13	7		-	2	58.2		No				1	57	42				No		359	*
37		12	7		-	3	47.8		No				1	47	52				No		954	*
36		11	7		-	4	35.3		No				0	35	65				No		2,266	*
35		11	8		-	3	26.4		No				0	26	74	0			No		5,450	*
34		11	9		-	2	16.7		No				0	17	83	0			No		11,740	*
33		10	9		-	3	10.3		No				0	10	90	0			No		24,267	*
32		10	10		-	2	5.9		No				0	6	94	0	0		0.0	%	46,226	*
31		9	10		-	3	3.1		No					3	96	1	0		0.0		83,170	*
30		9	11		-	2	1.5		No					1	96	2	0		0.0		140,304	*
29		8	11		-	3	0.7		No					1	95	4	0		0.1		223,078	*
28		8	12		-	2	0.3		No					0	93	7	0		0.3		153,910
		7	11		-	4	0.2		No					0	91	8	0		0.3		178,099	*
27		7	12		-	3	0.1		No					0	86	13	0		1.0		227,252
		8	13		-	1	0.1		No					0	86	13	0		1.0		236,254	*
26		7	13		-	2	0.1		No					0	80	19	1	0	2.9		298,309
		6	12		-	4	0.0		No					0	77	22	1	0	3.2		310,472	*
25		6	13		-	3	0.0		No					0	67	30	3	0	8.0		364,599
		7	14		-	1	0.0		No					0	72	26	2	0	7.1		241,582
		5	12		-	5	0.0		No					0	61	35	4	0	9.1		138,981	*
24		6	14		-	2	0.0		No					0	56	38	5	0	17.0		440,312
		5	13		-	4	0.0		No					0	50	43	8	0	18.8		269,964
		7	15		-	0	0.0		No					0	55	39	6	0	17.7		143,196	*
23		5	14		-	3	Out		No						38	49	13	0	34.6		438,797
		6	15		-	1	0.0		No					0	45	45	10	0	31.8		334,563
		4	13		-	5	Out		No						32	50	17	0	38.2		140,031	*
22		5	15		-	2	0.0		No					0	27	51	21	1	54.4		496,263
		4	14		-	4	0.0		No					0	21	51	26	1	58.5		257,300
		6	16		-	0	0.0		No					0	29	50	20	1	53.9		158,200	*
21		4	15		-	3	0.0		No					0	13	47	37	3	77.6		388,131
		5	16		-	1	0.0		No					0	16	49	33	2	75.7		450,147	*
20		4	16		-	2	0.0		No					0	7	40	48	6	90.8		411,017
		3	15		-	4	Out		No						4	33	53	9	93.1		171,768
		5	17		-	0	Out		No						9	42	44	5	89.5		137,361	*
19		4	17		-	1	Out		No						3	28	57	12	97.6		321,953	*
		3	16		-	3	0.0		No					0	2	23	59	17	98.2		244,671
18		3	17		-	2	Out		No						1	14	60	26	99.7		244,033
		4	18		-	0	0.0		No					0	1	15	58	26	99.6		169,411	*
17		3	18		-	1	0.0		No					0	0	6	52	41	100.0		268,775	*
16		2	18		-	2	Out		No						0	2	41	57	Yes		164,753	*
15		2	19		-	1	Out		No							1	27	72	Yes		85,291	*
14		1	19		-	2	Out		No							0	17	83	Yes		42,195	*
13		1	20		-	1	Out		No							0	8	92	Yes		16,162	*
12		1	21		-	0	Out		No								4	96	Yes		6,034	*
11		0	21		-	1	Out		No								1	99	Yes		1,425
10		0	22		-	0	0.2		No					0			1	99	Yes		1,677

Total:							0.2	%	0.0	%	0	0	0	0	40	31	22	7	46.0	%	8,492,208

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Pittsburgh 1 Phoenix 4	+0.4
New York 0 Los Angeles 2	-0.0
Winnipeg 1 Calgary 4	-0.0
Halifax 2 Ontario 6	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Pittsburgh vs Florida	-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.2
New York vs Anaheim	+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.0
Ottawa vs Halifax	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Philadelphia vs Denver	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Phoenix vs Winnipeg	-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0

What If

Last four teams qualify for first overall pick

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16

54	22	0		-	0	2	19	45	28	5	0
43	16	5		-	1								100
42	15	5		-	2								33	67
41	14	5		-	3								50	30	20
40	13	5		-	4								26	49	23	2
39	13	6		-	3								10	40	41	8
38	13	7		-	2								6	28	49	17
37	12	7		-	3								2	22	49	28
36	11	7		-	4								0	10	47	42
35	11	8		-	3								0	6	39	56	0
34	11	9		-	2								0	2	27	71	0
33	10	9		-	3									1	18	81	0
32	10	10		-	2								0	0	11	89	1	0
31	9	10		-	3									0	6	93	1	0
30	9	11		-	2									0	3	94	3	0
29	8	11		-	3									0	1	93	6	0	0
28	8	12		-	2										1	89	10	0	0
	7	11		-	4									0	0	88	11	0	0
27	7	12		-	3										0	81	18	1	0
	8	13		-	1										0	81	18	1	0
26	7	13		-	2										0	70	27	3	0	0
	6	12		-	4										0	68	28	3	0	0
25	6	13		-	3										0	54	38	8	0	0
	7	14		-	1										0	56	37	7	0	0
	5	12		-	5										0	51	40	9	1	0
24	6	14		-	2										0	38	45	15	2	0	0
	5	13		-	4										0	35	46	17	2	0	0
	7	15		-	0										0	37	45	16	2	0
23	5	14		-	3										0	21	45	28	6	0	0
	6	15		-	1										0	23	46	26	5	0	0
	4	13		-	5										0	18	44	30	7	1	0
22	5	15		-	2											10	36	39	14	2	0
	4	14		-	4										0	9	34	39	16	2	0
21	4	15		-	3											3	20	41	29	7	0
	5	16		-	1											3	21	41	28	6	0
20	4	16		-	2											1	9	32	40	17	1
	3	15		-	4											0	7	29	42	20	2
	5	17		-	0											1	10	33	39	15	1
19	4	17		-	1											0	3	19	43	31	5
	3	16		-	3											0	2	15	41	36	7
18	3	17		-	2											0	0	6	31	47	16
	4	18		-	0											0	0	6	30	47	16
17	3	18		-	1												0	1	16	51	32
16	2	18		-	2													0	6	42	51
15	2	19		-	1													0	2	28	70
14	1	19		-	2														0	16	83
13	1	20		-	1														0	7	92
12	1	21		-	0															3	97
11	0	21		-	1															1	99
10	0	22		-	0															0	100

Total:						0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0	0	31	23	18	14	10	5