Ottawa Oblivion Playoff Chances 1

Beat Philadelphia 3-2 (ot), playoff odds up 4.6 to 98.6%

22 points 11 3-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Lottery Eligibility	100.0*	Average seed
Philadelphia 2 Ottawa 3 (ot)	+1.5		+1.7		No		+0.2
Vancouver 1 Anaheim 3	+1.4
Toronto 3 Edmonton 5	-0.2		+0.9				+0.1
Halifax 2 Ontario 6							-0.0
New York 0 Los Angeles 2			-0.1
Winnipeg 1 Calgary 4							-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Lottery Eligibility	100.0*	Average seed
Ottawa vs Halifax	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.7-0.5-1.7		+0.3+0.3+0.3-2.2-2.4-4.1		NoNoNo*NoNo+0.2		+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.4
Vancouver vs Edmonton	+0.2-0.0-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.1
Calgary vs Ontario			-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.1-0.0+0.4				+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1+0.0
Philadelphia vs Denver			-0.1*-0.1-0.1+0.5+0.4+1.0
Toronto vs Los Angeles			+0.1-0.6-0.5-0.6-0.5+0.1				-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Ottawa finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed								Lottery
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Eligibility		Count

65	-66						In		99.9	%	100								No		3,000	*
64		21	1		-	0	In		99.5		100	0							No		7,577	*
63		20	1		-	1	In		98.0		99	1							No		12,782	*
62		20	2		-	0	In		94.4		98	2	0						No		45,677	*
61		19	2		-	1	100.0	%	85.6		94	6	0		0				No		66,422	*
60		19	3		-	0	100.0		74.0		89	11	0		0				No		115,319
		18	2		-	2	100.0		69.9		83	16	1		0				No		51,479	*
59		18	3		-	1	100.0		52.3		75	24	2		0				No		210,764	*
58		18	4		-	0	100.0		34.8		64	33	3	0	0				No		263,856
		17	3		-	2	100.0		29.8		54	40	6	0	0				No		145,482	*
57		17	4		-	1	99.9		15.4		43	46	11	0	0				No		389,073
		16	3		-	3	99.9		12.3		33	49	17	0	0				No		63,258	*
56		17	5		-	0	99.9		6.3		30	51	19	0	0				No		442,074
		16	4		-	2	99.9		4.4		21	51	27	1	0				No		280,677	*
55		16	5		-	1	99.9		1.3		13	46	38	3	0				No		592,623
		15	4		-	3	99.8		0.8		8	40	45	7	0				No		109,261	*
54		16	6		-	0	99.8		0.2		7	38	48	7	0				No		559,198
		15	5		-	2	99.8		0.1		4	31	53	12	0				No		356,648
		14	4		-	4	99.6		0.1		2	25	54	19	0				No		28,801	*
53		15	6		-	1	99.7		0.0		2	21	57	20	0	0			No		675,347
		14	5		-	3	99.6		0.0		1	14	54	30	0				No		133,623	*
52		15	7		-	0	99.6		0.0		1	13	55	31	0	0			No		546,102
		14	6		-	2	99.5		0.0		0	9	51	40	1				No		362,294
		13	5		-	4	99.3		No		0	6	44	49	1				No		31,063	*
51		14	7		-	1	99.3		No		0	4	43	52	1	0			No		586,979
		13	6		-	3	99.1		No		0	2	34	62	1	0			No		120,230	*
50		14	8		-	0	98.9		No		0	2	34	63	1	0			No		416,574
		13	7		-	2	98.7		No		0	1	27	70	1	0			No		302,341	*
49		13	8		-	1	98.1		No		0	0	20	78	2	0			No		395,164
		12	7		-	3	97.7		No		0	0	13	84	2	0			No		80,057	*
48		13	9		-	0	96.8		No		0	0	13	84	3	0			No		247,930
		12	8		-	2	96.5		No			0	10	87	3	0			No		177,077	*
47		12	9		-	1	94.8		No			0	6	89	5	0			No		205,347
		11	8		-	3	93.6		No			0	4	90	6	0			No		40,495	*
46		12	10		-	0	91.9		No			0	3	89	8	0			No		115,975
		11	9		-	2	91.2		No			0	2	89	8	0			No		79,035	*
45		11	10		-	1	87.7		No			0	1	87	12	1			No		98,258	*
44		11	11		-	0	83.4		No				1	83	15	2	0		No		69,851	*
43		10	11		-	1	79.0		No				0	79	18	3	0		No		30,317	*
42		10	12		-	0	74.0		No				0	74	20	6	0		No		19,202	*
41		9	12		-	1	71.4		No				0	71	19	10	0		No		7,280	*
40		9	13		-	0	68.8		No				0	69	17	14	0		No		4,179	*
39		8	13		-	1	65.4		No					65	15	19	0		No		1,231	*
38		8	14		-	0	67.1		No					67	10	23	0		No		686	*
37		7	14		-	1	62.4		No					62	7	30	1		No		181	*
36		7	15		-	0	58.0		No					58	10	32			No		81	*
35		6	15		-	1	72.7		No					73		27			No		11	*
34		6	16		-	0	In		No					100					No		7
33		5	16		-	1	Out		No							100			No		1
22		0	22		-	0	0.2		No					0		11	50	38	93.1	%	1,319

Total:							98.6	%	7.2	%	14	21	31	33	1	0	0	0	0.0	%	8,492,208

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Philadelphia 2 Ottawa 3 (ot)	-0.3
Toronto 3 Edmonton 5	-0.1
Winnipeg 1 Calgary 4	+0.0
New York 0 Los Angeles 2	+0.0
Halifax 2 Ontario 6	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Ottawa vs Halifax	-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.7
Philadelphia vs Denver	+0.0*+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
New York vs Anaheim	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
Calgary vs Ontario	-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0
Toronto vs Los Angeles	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Last four teams qualify for first overall pick

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16

66		22	0		-	0	100
65		21	0		-	1	100	0
64		21	1		-	0	99	1
63		20	1		-	1	98	2
62		20	2		-	0	94	6	0
61		19	2		-	1	86	14	0	0
60		19	3		-	0	74	24	2	0
		18	2		-	2	70	28	2	0
59		18	3		-	1	52	40	7	0	0
58		18	4		-	0	35	48	16	1	0
		17	3		-	2	30	48	20	2	0
57		17	4		-	1	15	44	33	7	0	0
		16	3		-	3	12	41	36	10	1	0
56		17	5		-	0	6	31	42	18	2	0
		16	4		-	2	4	27	43	22	3	0
55		16	5		-	1	1	14	39	36	10	0
		15	4		-	3	1	11	36	39	13	1	0
54		16	6		-	0	0	5	26	44	23	2	0
		15	5		-	2	0	3	22	44	27	4	0
		14	4		-	4	0	2	18	42	31	6	0
53		15	6		-	1	0	1	10	37	41	11	0	0
		14	5		-	3	0	1	8	33	44	14	0
52		15	7		-	0	0	0	4	24	48	24	1	0
		14	6		-	2	0	0	3	20	48	28	1	0
		13	5		-	4		0	2	17	47	33	2	0
51		14	7		-	1		0	1	10	42	43	5	0
		13	6		-	3		0	0	8	39	48	5	0
50		14	8		-	0		0	0	4	30	55	11	0
		13	7		-	2			0	3	26	58	13	0	0
49		13	8		-	1			0	1	15	60	24	1	0	0
		12	7		-	3			0	1	13	61	25	1	0
48		13	9		-	0			0	0	7	53	37	3	0
		12	8		-	2				0	6	53	38	3	0
47		12	9		-	1				0	2	40	50	8	0	0
		11	8		-	3				0	2	39	51	8	0	0
46		12	10		-	0					1	26	56	16	1	0
		11	9		-	2				0	1	26	56	16	1	0
45		11	10		-	1					0	15	54	28	3	0
44		11	11		-	0					0	7	46	39	8	0
		10	10		-	2					0	7	46	39	8	0
43		10	11		-	1					0	3	33	47	16	1
42		10	12		-	0						1	21	48	27	4
41		9	12		-	1						0	10	42	38	9	0
40		9	13		-	0						0	5	32	46	18
39		8	13		-	1							2	23	43	31	0
38		8	14		-	0							0	12	44	43	0
37		7	14		-	1								7	36	56	1
36		7	15		-	0									31	69
33	-35															100
22		0	22		-	0											1	6	29	43	20	1

Total:							7	10	14	17	20	21	9	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0