Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Ontario Eagles Playoff Chances 1

Beat Halifax 6-2, playoff odds up 2.9 to 96.9%

23 points 11 3-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Lottery Eligibility	100.0*	Average seed
Vancouver 1 Anaheim 3	+1.3
Halifax 2 Ontario 6	+0.3		+0.2		No		+0.0
Philadelphia 2 Ottawa 3 (ot)	-0.2						-0.1
Toronto 3 Edmonton 5	-0.1		+0.9				+0.1
Winnipeg 1 Calgary 4							-0.0
New York 0 Los Angeles 2			-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Lottery Eligibility	100.0*	Average seed
Calgary vs Ontario	-1.1-0.2-0.2+1.0+0.9+1.0		-2.7-1.1-1.0+1.9+2.0+2.5		+0.0NoNoNoNoNo		-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Vancouver vs Edmonton	+0.3-0.0-0.0-0.5-0.4-0.3
Philadelphia vs Denver			-0.1-0.1*-0.0+0.4+0.4+0.7
Toronto vs Los Angeles			+0.2-0.3-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.1				-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Ottawa vs Halifax			-0.0-0.0-0.1+0.3+0.2+0.2				-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Ontario finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed								Lottery
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Eligibility		Count

65		21	0		-	0	In		99.8	%	100								No		2,242
64		20	0		-	1	In		98.5		100	0							No		1,780
63		20	1		-	0	100.0	%	97.0		99	1			0				No		11,156	*
62		19	1		-	1	100.0		92.1		96	4	0		0				No		17,456	*
61		19	2		-	0	100.0		83.5		92	7	0		0				No		60,213	*
60		18	2		-	1	100.0		67.8		82	17	1		0				No		81,863	*
59		18	3		-	0	100.0		52.0		74	24	2	0	0				No		142,256
		17	2		-	2	100.0		48.5		68	30	2	0	0				No		58,724	*
58		17	3		-	1	99.9		30.3		53	41	6	0	0				No		239,307	*
57		17	4		-	0	99.9		16.2		41	47	12	0	0				No		300,774
		16	3		-	2	99.9		13.7		34	49	16	0	0				No		155,073	*
56		16	4		-	1	99.8		5.4		21	51	27	2	0				No		416,432
		15	3		-	3	99.8		4.0		16	49	32	3	0				No		64,179	*
55		16	5		-	0	99.8		1.5		13	45	38	4	0				No		471,546
		15	4		-	2	99.7		1.1		8	40	44	7	0				No		282,103	*
54		15	5		-	1	99.6		0.2		4	29	52	14	0	0			No		596,330
		14	4		-	3	99.6		0.1		2	24	54	19	0				No		105,387	*
53		15	6		-	0	99.5		0.0		2	20	55	23	0				No		564,627
		14	5		-	2	99.4		0.0		1	14	53	31	1	0			No		372,821	*
52		14	6		-	1	99.3		0.0		0	8	47	45	1	0			No		654,719
		13	5		-	3	99.1		No		0	6	42	52	1	0			No		126,042	*
51		14	7		-	0	99.1		0.0		0	4	40	56	1	0			No		529,920
		13	6		-	2	98.7		0.0		0	2	32	64	1	0			No		372,006	*
50		13	7		-	1	98.2		No		0	1	23	74	2	0			No		554,686
		12	6		-	3	97.5		No		0	1	19	78	2	0			No		112,307	*
49		13	8		-	0	97.4		No		0	0	16	81	3	0			No		394,835
		12	7		-	2	96.4		No			0	12	84	4	0			No		284,806	*
48		12	8		-	1	94.9		No			0	7	88	5	0			No		371,228
		11	7		-	3	92.9		No			0	5	88	7	0			No		76,421	*
47		12	9		-	0	92.6		No			0	4	88	7	0			No		233,785
		11	8		-	2	90.3		No			0	3	87	9	0			No		170,526	*
46		11	9		-	1	87.2		No			0	1	86	12	1	0		No		196,878
		10	8		-	3	83.7		No			0	1	83	15	1			No		40,272	*
45		11	10		-	0	82.7		No				1	82	16	1			No		117,777	*
		10	9		-	2	79.8		No				0	79	18	2	0		No		72,403
44		10	10		-	1	74.4		No				0	74	22	3			No		98,432	*
43		10	11		-	0	68.8		No				0	69	25	6			No		70,748	*
42		9	11		-	1	62.8		No				0	63	26	11	0		No		32,091	*
41		9	12		-	0	59.5		No				0	59	24	16	0		No		20,828	*
40		8	12		-	1	57.1		No				0	57	20	23	0		No		8,147	*
39		8	13		-	0	55.6		No				0	56	15	29			No		4,936	*
38		7	13		-	1	53.8		No					54	11	35	0		No		1,612	*
37		7	14		-	0	55.2		No					55	7	38	0		No		832	*
36		6	14		-	1	48.7		No					49	3	49			No		226	*
35		6	15		-	0	54.0		No					54	2	44			No		113	*
34		5	15		-	1	53.8		No					54	8	38			No		26	*
33		5	16		-	0	64.3		No					64		36			No		14	*
32		4	16		-	1	Out		No							100			No		1
29	-31						In		No					100					No		3	*
23		0	21		-	0	0.2		No					0		39	50	11	50.1	%	1,319

Total:							96.9	%	4.9	%	10	17	28	43	3	0	0	0	0.0	%	8,492,208

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Toronto 3 Edmonton 5	-0.1
Philadelphia 2 Ottawa 3 (ot)	+0.1
Halifax 2 Ontario 6	-0.1
Winnipeg 1 Calgary 4	+0.0
New York 0 Los Angeles 2	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Calgary vs Ontario	+0.5+0.1+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.4
Philadelphia vs Denver	+0.0+0.0*+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.1
Ottawa vs Halifax	+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1
New York vs Anaheim	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Last four teams qualify for first overall pick

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16

65		21	0		-	0	100	0
64		20	0		-	1	99	1
63		20	1		-	0	97	3
62		19	1		-	1	92	8	0
61		19	2		-	0	83	16	1	0
60		18	2		-	1	68	29	3	0
59		18	3		-	0	52	40	8	0	0
		17	2		-	2	48	42	9	0	0
58		17	3		-	1	30	48	20	2	0
57		17	4		-	0	16	44	32	7	0	0
		16	3		-	2	14	42	35	9	1	0
56		16	4		-	1	5	29	43	21	3	0
		15	3		-	3	4	25	43	24	4	0
55		16	5		-	0	2	15	39	35	9	0	0
		15	4		-	2	1	12	37	37	12	1	0
54		15	5		-	1	0	4	24	43	25	3	0
		14	4		-	3	0	3	21	43	28	5	0
53		15	6		-	0	0	1	12	38	39	10	0
		14	5		-	2	0	1	9	35	42	13	0
52		14	6		-	1	0	0	3	22	47	26	1	0
		13	5		-	3		0	2	18	47	30	2	0
51		14	7		-	0	0	0	1	11	42	42	5	0
		13	6		-	2	0	0	1	9	39	45	6	0
		12	5		-	4			0	7	36	49	8	0
50		13	7		-	1		0	0	3	27	55	14	0	0
		12	6		-	3		0	0	2	23	57	17	0	0
49		13	8		-	0			0	1	15	57	26	1	0
		12	7		-	2			0	1	12	56	29	1	0
48		12	8		-	1			0	0	6	47	43	5	0	0
		11	7		-	3				0	5	44	45	6	0
47		12	9		-	0				0	2	34	53	10	0	0
		11	8		-	2				0	2	31	55	12	1	0
46		11	9		-	1				0	0	19	56	22	2	0
		10	8		-	3					0	17	56	24	2	0
45		11	10		-	0					0	10	51	34	5	0
		10	9		-	2					0	8	49	36	6	0
44		10	10		-	1					0	4	37	46	13	1
43		10	11		-	0					0	1	24	48	23	3
		9	10		-	2					0	1	22	48	25	4
42		9	11		-	1						0	12	43	36	8
41		9	12		-	0						0	6	33	46	15	0
40		8	12		-	1						0	2	20	48	30	0
39		8	13		-	0						0	1	12	45	42	0
38		7	13		-	1							0	7	37	56	0
37		7	14		-	0								3	27	69	0
36		6	14		-	1								1	19	80	0
35		6	15		-	0									10	88	3
34		5	15		-	1									15	85
29	-33															100
23		0	21		-	0										1	12	36	35	13	2

Total:							5	8	12	16	20	22	12	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0