New York Hurricanes Playoff Chances 1

Lost to Los Angeles 0-2, playoff odds down 0.6 to 0.1%

9 points 4 9-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Lottery Eligibility	100.0*	Average seed
Denver 0 Florida 1	-0.2				-0.6		+0.0
New York 0 Los Angeles 2	-0.1		No		+2.9		-0.1
Pittsburgh 1 Phoenix 4					-0.6		+0.0
Winnipeg 1 Calgary 4					-0.8
Halifax 2 Ontario 6					-0.5

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Lottery Eligibility	100.0*	Average seed
New York vs Anaheim	+0.3+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0		+0.0NoNoNoNoNo		-15.1-15.0-14.9-5.9-6.0+2.9		+0.3+0.3+0.3+0.1+0.1-0.1
Pittsburgh vs Florida	+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0				+3.2+3.2+3.0+1.0+0.9-1.4		-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0
Philadelphia vs Denver	-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1				-0.2+0.5+0.5+1.1+1.4+1.3		+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Ottawa vs Halifax					-0.5+1.2+1.2+3.1+2.8+3.1
Phoenix vs Winnipeg					-0.2+1.8+1.8+1.6+1.6-0.4		-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the New York finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed								Lottery
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Eligibility		Count

53	22	0		-	0	In		0.9	%	19	64	17						No		1,319
42	16	5		-	1	In		No				33	67					No		3	*
41	15	5		-	2	In		No					100					No		1
40	15	6		-	1	83.3	%	No				17	67	17				No		6	*
39	13	5		-	4	77.8		No					78	22				No		18	*
38	13	6		-	3	60.0		No				4	56	40				No		85	*
37	13	7		-	2	46.9		No					47	53				No		243	*
36	12	7		-	3	33.9		No					34	66				No		652	*
35	12	8		-	2	22.7		No				0	23	77	0			No		1,658	*
34	11	8		-	3	16.5		No				0	16	83	0			No		3,907	*
33	11	9		-	2	9.9		No					10	90	0			No		8,858	*
32	10	9		-	3	5.5		No				0	6	94	1			No		19,039	*
31	10	10		-	2	3.0		No					3	96	1	0		0.0	%	37,889	*
30	9	10		-	3	1.5		No					2	96	3	0		0.0		69,358	*
29	9	11		-	2	0.7		No					1	94	5	0		0.1		121,445	*
28	8	11		-	3	0.3		No					0	90	9	0		0.4		197,513	*
27	8	12		-	2	0.2		No					0	86	13	0		1.1		136,530
	7	11		-	4	0.1		No					0	83	17	1		1.2		164,783	*
26	7	12		-	3	0.0		No					0	76	23	2	0	3.3		213,117
	8	13		-	1	0.1		No					0	75	23	2	0	3.4		219,431	*
25	7	13		-	2	0.0		No					0	67	30	3	0	8.0		278,515
	6	12		-	4	0.0		No					0	61	34	5	0	8.8		300,073	*
24	6	13		-	3	0.0		No					0	50	42	8	0	18.6		355,572
	7	14		-	1	0.0		No					0	56	38	6	0	16.8		225,394
	5	12		-	5	0.0		No					0	42	46	12	0	21.0		142,055	*
23	6	14		-	2	Out		No						39	48	14	0	33.6		432,047
	5	13		-	4	0.0		No					0	33	49	18	0	35.9		414,616	*
22	5	14		-	3	Out		No						22	50	27	1	56.5		444,394
	6	15		-	1	0.0		No					0	27	50	22	0	52.9		326,065
	4	13		-	5	Out		No						15	48	35	2	61.0		146,308	*
21	5	15		-	2	Out		No						14	47	37	2	75.4		504,156
	4	14		-	4	Out		No						9	42	45	4	79.0		269,395
	6	16		-	0	0.0		No					0	14	45	38	3	75.1		158,217	*
20	4	15		-	3	0.0		No					0	5	34	54	7	91.6		406,094
	5	16		-	1	Out		No						6	37	51	6	90.3		462,352	*
19	4	16		-	2	Out		No						2	24	61	13	97.5		431,742
	3	15		-	4	Out		No						1	17	62	20	98.4		184,124
	5	17		-	0	Out		No						3	26	59	12	97.0		140,539	*
18	4	17		-	1	Out		No						1	15	63	21	99.6		287,916
	3	16		-	3	Out		No						0	9	60	31	99.8		310,175	*
17	3	17		-	2	Out		No						0	5	55	40	100.0		261,888
	4	18		-	0	Out		No						0	5	53	41	100.0		180,559	*
16	3	18		-	1	Out		No						0	2	42	56	100.0		289,976	*
15	2	18		-	2	Out		No						0	0	29	71	Yes		177,853	*
14	2	19		-	1	Out		No							0	18	82	Yes		93,144	*
13	1	19		-	2	0.0		No					0		0	10	90	Yes		45,823	*
12	1	20		-	1	Out		No								5	95	Yes		17,521	*
11	1	21		-	0	Out		No								2	98	Yes		6,765	*
10	0	21		-	1	Out		No								1	99	Yes		1,409
9	0	22		-	0	0.2		No					0			0	100	Yes		1,666

Total:						0.1	%	0.0	%	0	0	0	0	29	30	30	11	57.9	%	8,492,208

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
New York 0 Los Angeles 2	+0.1
Denver 0 Florida 1	-0.0
Winnipeg 1 Calgary 4	-0.0
Halifax 2 Ontario 6	-0.0
Pittsburgh 1 Phoenix 4	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
New York vs Anaheim	-0.6-0.5-0.5-0.2-0.2+0.1
Ottawa vs Halifax	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Pittsburgh vs Florida	+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0
Philadelphia vs Denver	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Phoenix vs Winnipeg	-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0

What If

Last four teams qualify for first overall pick

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16

53	22	0		-	0	1	14	39	34	11	1	0
42	16	5		-	1							33	33	33
41	15	5		-	2								100
40	15	6		-	1								50	17	33
39	13	5		-	4								11	44	28	17
38	13	6		-	3								4	32	46	19
37	13	7		-	2								2	18	57	22
36	12	7		-	3								0	8	45	46
35	12	8		-	2								0	4	34	62
34	11	8		-	3									2	24	74	0
33	11	9		-	2								0	1	15	84	0
32	10	9		-	3									0	9	90	1
31	10	10		-	2									0	5	94	1	0
30	9	10		-	3									0	2	95	3	0
29	9	11		-	2									0	1	93	6	0
28	8	11		-	3										1	88	11	0	0
27	8	12		-	2										0	81	18	1	0
	7	11		-	4										0	80	19	1	0
26	7	12		-	3										0	68	28	3	0
	8	13		-	1										0	68	28	3	0
25	7	13		-	2										0	54	38	8	0	0
	6	12		-	4										0	52	39	8	1	0
24	6	13		-	3										0	35	45	17	2	0	0
	7	14		-	1										0	38	45	15	2	0
23	6	14		-	2										0	22	45	28	6	0	0
	5	13		-	4										0	19	44	30	6	0	0
	7	15		-	0										0	21	44	28	6	0	0
22	5	14		-	3											9	35	39	15	2	0
	6	15		-	1											10	37	38	13	1	0
	4	13		-	5											7	32	41	17	2	0
21	5	15		-	2											3	21	42	28	6	0
	4	14		-	4											2	19	41	30	7	0
	6	16		-	0											3	21	41	27	6	0
20	4	15		-	3											1	8	32	41	17	1
	5	16		-	1											1	9	33	40	16	1
19	4	16		-	2											0	2	18	43	31	5
	3	15		-	4											0	2	15	42	35	7
	5	17		-	0											0	3	20	43	30	5
18	4	17		-	1											0	0	8	35	45	12
	3	16		-	3											0	0	6	31	48	16
17	3	17		-	2												0	2	18	51	29
	4	18		-	0												0	2	18	51	30
16	3	18		-	1												0	0	7	44	48
15	2	18		-	2													0	2	31	67
14	2	19		-	1														0	18	81
13	1	19		-	2														0	9	91
12	1	20		-	1														0	4	96
11	1	21		-	0															2	98
10	0	21		-	1															0	100
9	0	22		-	0															0	100

Total:						0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	21	20	19	17	14	8