Halifax Hornets Playoff Chances 1

Lost to Ontario 2-6, playoff odds unchanged at 0.02%

9 points 4 10-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Lottery Eligibility	100.0*	Average seed
Halifax 2 Ontario 6	-0.0		No		+2.1		-0.0
Philadelphia 2 Ottawa 3 (ot)			*No
New York 0 Los Angeles 2					-0.5
Pittsburgh 1 Phoenix 4					-0.5
Winnipeg 1 Calgary 4					-0.5		+0.0
Denver 0 Florida 1					-0.3

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Lottery Eligibility	100.0*	Average seed
Ottawa vs Halifax	-0.0OutOut*OutOut+0.2				+2.1-5.1-5.2-13.0-13.5-13.5		-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.2
Philadelphia vs Denver					-0.1+0.4+0.3+1.1+0.6+0.8
Pittsburgh vs Florida					+2.4+2.4+2.4+0.7+0.7-1.1
New York vs Anaheim					+2.9+2.9+2.7+1.0+1.1-0.6
Phoenix vs Winnipeg					*+0.0+1.4+1.2+1.0+1.2-0.5		+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Halifax finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed								Lottery
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Eligibility		Count

51	21	0		-	0	98.9	%	0.2	%	7	41	45	5	1				No		1,319
42	15	3		-	3	Out		No						100				No		1
39	14	5		-	2	Out		No							100			No		1
38	13	5		-	3	Out		No								100		No		2	*
37	12	5		-	4	Out		No							46	54		No		13	*
36	11	5		-	5	Out		No							18	82		No		45	*
35	11	6		-	4	Out		No							16	84		No		147	*
34	11	7		-	3	Out		No							11	89		No		369	*
33	10	7		-	4	Out		No							6	94	0	No		1,093	*
32	10	8		-	3	Out		No						0	4	96	0	No		2,796	*
31	9	8		-	4	Out		No						0	2	98	0	No		6,860	*
30	9	9		-	3	Out		No							1	98	0	0.0	%	15,473	*
29	8	9		-	4	Out		No							1	98	1	0.1		32,161	*
28	8	10		-	3	Out		No							1	98	2	0.5		63,246	*
27	8	11		-	2	Out		No							0	96	3	1.6		115,711	*
26	7	11		-	3	Out		No							0	94	6	4.6		197,656	*
25	7	12		-	2	Out		No							0	91	9	10.1		138,094
	6	11		-	4	Out		No							0	88	12	11.9		175,463	*
24	6	12		-	3	Out		No							0	84	16	23.2		230,063
	7	13		-	1	Out		No							0	87	13	20.2		120,246
	5	11		-	5	Out		No							0	80	20	27.1		110,267	*
23	6	13		-	2	Out		No							0	78	22	39.3		301,312
	5	12		-	4	Out		No							0	74	26	43.7		327,228	*
22	5	13		-	3	Out		No							0	65	35	63.3		395,971
	6	14		-	1	Out		No							0	71	29	58.6		242,701
	4	12		-	5	Out		No							0	59	41	69.4		154,161	*
21	5	14		-	2	Out		No							0	57	43	80.5		480,930
	4	13		-	4	Out		No							0	50	50	84.6		298,939
	6	15		-	0	Out		No							0	56	44	81.1		145,716	*
20	4	14		-	3	0.0		No					0		0	41	59	94.1		484,303
	5	15		-	1	0.0		No					0		0	48	52	91.9		363,516
	3	13		-	5	Out		No							0	35	65	96.2		145,866	*
19	4	15		-	2	Out		No							0	32	68	98.4		548,538
	3	14		-	4	Out		No								26	74	99.2		306,628	*
	5	16		-	0	Out		No							0	38	62	97.6		128,464
18	3	15		-	3	Out		No								19	81	99.9		408,884
	4	16		-	1	Out		No								23	77	99.8		478,408	*
17	3	16		-	2	Out		No								13	87	100.0		434,710
	2	15		-	4	Out		No								9	91	100.0		158,532
	4	17		-	0	Out		No								16	84	100.0		143,914	*
16	3	17		-	1	Out		No								9	91	100.0		289,396
	2	16		-	3	Out		No								5	95	100.0		255,659	*
15	2	17		-	2	Out		No								3	97	Yes		224,671
	3	18		-	0	Out		No								4	96	Yes		147,571	*
14	2	18		-	1	Out		No								1	99	Yes		217,656	*
13	1	18		-	2	Out		No								0	100	Yes		118,490	*
12	1	19		-	1	Out		No								0	100	Yes		50,647	*
11	1	20		-	0	Out		No								0	100	Yes		20,507	*
10	0	20		-	1	Out		No									100	Yes		5,144
9	0	21		-	0	0.1		No					0				100	Yes		2,720

Total:						0.0	%	0.0	%	0	0	0	0	0	0	43	57	76.9	%	8,492,208

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Halifax 2 Ontario 6	+0.1
Denver 0 Florida 1	-0.0
Winnipeg 1 Calgary 4	-0.0
New York 0 Los Angeles 2	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Ottawa vs Halifax	+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.6-0.6-0.6
New York vs Anaheim	+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0
Pittsburgh vs Florida	+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0
Philadelphia vs Denver	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Phoenix vs Winnipeg	-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0

Last four teams qualify for first overall pick

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16

51	21	0		-	0	0	5	25	44	23	3	0
42	15	3		-	3							100
39	14	5		-	2									100
38	13	5		-	3											100
37	12	5		-	4									8	62	31
36	11	5		-	5									2	33	64
35	11	6		-	4									3	25	72
34	11	7		-	3									1	20	78
33	10	7		-	4									0	11	89	0
32	10	8		-	3									0	7	92	1
31	9	8		-	4									0	4	94	1
30	9	9		-	3										2	94	3	0
29	8	9		-	4										1	92	7	0
28	8	10		-	3										1	87	12	0	0
27	8	11		-	2										0	78	20	2	0
26	7	11		-	3										0	65	30	4	0
	6	10		-	5										0	65	31	4	0	0
25	7	12		-	2										0	51	39	9	1	0
	6	11		-	4										0	47	41	11	1	0
24	6	12		-	3										0	31	45	20	3	0
	7	13		-	1										0	32	45	20	3	0	0
23	6	13		-	2										0	18	43	30	8	1	0
	5	12		-	4											15	40	34	10	1	0
22	5	13		-	3											7	30	41	20	3	0
	6	14		-	1											8	33	39	17	2	0
	4	12		-	5											5	26	42	24	4	0
21	5	14		-	2											2	17	40	32	8	0
	4	13		-	4											1	14	38	36	10	0
	6	15		-	0											2	17	38	33	9	0
20	4	14		-	3											0	6	27	44	22	2
	5	15		-	1											1	8	30	42	18	1
	3	13		-	5											0	4	23	45	26	2
19	4	15		-	2											0	2	14	42	37	5
	3	14		-	4											0	1	11	40	41	7
	5	16		-	0											0	2	15	42	36	5
18	3	15		-	3											0	0	4	28	52	15
	4	16		-	1											0	0	5	31	51	13
17	3	16		-	2												0	1	16	56	27
	2	15		-	4												0	1	13	56	31
	4	17		-	0												0	2	18	55	25
16	3	17		-	1												0	0	7	50	42
	2	16		-	3												0	0	5	48	47
15	2	17		-	2													0	2	37	61
	3	18		-	0													0	2	38	60
14	2	18		-	1													0	0	25	74
13	1	18		-	2														0	15	85
12	1	19		-	1														0	8	92
11	1	20		-	0														0	4	96
10	0	20		-	1															2	98
9	0	21		-	0															1	99

Total:						0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0	10	14	17	21	24	14