Toronto Tanks Playoff Chances 1

Lost to Edmonton 3-5, playoff odds down 0.004 to 99.9%

24 points 12 2-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Lottery Eligibility	100.0*	Average seed
Toronto 3 Edmonton 5	-0.1		-12.6		+0.1		-0.2
New York 0 Los Angeles 2			-0.5
Winnipeg 1 Calgary 4			-0.3				-0.0
Halifax 2 Ontario 6			-0.1				-0.0
Philadelphia 2 Ottawa 3 (ot)			*-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Lottery Eligibility	100.0*	Average seed
Toronto vs Los Angeles	+0.0+0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.0-0.1		+10.3+7.5+7.5-4.0-4.0-12.1		NoNoNoNoNo+0.0		+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.0-0.0-0.2
Ottawa vs Halifax			-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.5+0.3+1.1				-0.0-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Philadelphia vs Denver			-0.2-0.2-0.3+1.4+1.2+2.6
Calgary vs Ontario			-0.9-1.3-1.3-0.3*-0.2+1.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed								Lottery
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Eligibility		Count

67	-68						In		Yes		100								No		7,295	*
66		21	1		-	0	In		99.9	%	100	0							No		24,288	*
65		20	1		-	1	In		99.7		100	0							No		35,652	*
64		20	2		-	0	In		98.9		100	0							No		96,566
		19	1		-	2	In		98.9		100	0							No		25,272	*
63		19	2		-	1	In		96.8		99	1							No		151,738	*
62		19	3		-	0	100.0	%	92.9		98	2	0		0				No		266,128
		18	2		-	2	In		92.5		98	2	0						No		96,163	*
61		18	3		-	1	100.0		84.7		95	5	0		0				No		350,782
		17	2		-	3	In		83.8		94	6	0						No		37,246	*
60		18	4		-	0	100.0		73.0		91	9	0		0				No		497,236
		17	3		-	2	100.0		71.5		89	11	0		0				No		218,407	*
59		17	4		-	1	100.0		55.3		82	17	0	0	0				No		592,087
		16	3		-	3	100.0		53.2		79	20	1		0				No		75,632	*
58		17	5		-	0	100.0		37.2		72	27	1	0	0				No		671,421
		16	4		-	2	100.0		34.9		67	31	2	0	0				No		315,198
		15	3		-	4	100.0		32.6		62	34	4	0	0				No		17,593	*
57		16	5		-	1	100.0		19.0		54	40	6	0	0				No		711,236
		15	4		-	3	100.0		17.1		47	43	9	0	0				No		101,558	*
56		16	6		-	0	100.0		8.3		40	49	11	0	0				No		673,586
		15	5		-	2	100.0		7.0		33	50	16	1	0				No		336,167
		14	4		-	4	100.0		5.9		27	50	22	1	0				No		20,707	*
55		15	6		-	1	100.0		2.2		22	50	26	2	0				No		634,497
		14	5		-	3	100.0		1.8		16	46	34	3	0				No		95,204	*
54		15	7		-	0	100.0		0.5		12	46	38	4	0				No		513,966
		14	6		-	2	100.0		0.3		8	40	44	7	0				No		278,705	*
53		14	7		-	1	99.9		0.0		4	31	52	13	0				No		424,729
		13	6		-	3	99.9		0.0		2	23	54	20	0				No		65,246	*
52		14	8		-	0	99.9		0.0		2	20	55	23	0				No		301,661
		13	7		-	2	99.9		0.0		1	15	54	30	0				No		163,560	*
51		13	8		-	1	99.8		No		0	9	49	42	0				No		218,394	*
		12	7		-	3	99.8		No		0	5	43	51	0	0			No		32,079
50		13	9		-	0	99.7		No		0	4	41	55	0				No		140,952	*
		12	8		-	2	99.7		No		0	3	35	62	0	0			No		67,430
49		12	9		-	1	99.5		No		0	1	26	72	0	0			No		97,592	*
48		12	10		-	0	99.2		No			0	18	80	1	0			No		48,455
		11	9		-	2	99.2		No			0	15	84	1	0			No		24,090	*
47		11	10		-	1	98.6		No			0	9	89	1	0			No		29,488	*
46		11	11		-	0	97.9		No			0	5	92	2	0			No		19,748	*
45		10	11		-	1	97.3		No				3	94	2	0	0		No		6,865	*
44		10	12		-	0	96.6		No				2	95	3	0	0		No		4,074	*
43		9	12		-	1	94.0		No				1	93	5	1			No		1,266	*
42		9	13		-	0	93.0		No				1	92	5	2			No		658	*
41		8	13		-	1	91.7		No				1	91	4	4			No		156	*
40		8	14		-	0	90.1		No					90	6	4			No		81	*
39		7	14		-	1	83.3		No					83	6	11			No		18
38		7	15		-	0	In		No				7	93					No		15	*
37		6	15		-	1	In		No					100					No		1
36		6	16		-	0	Out		No							100			No		1
24		0	22		-	0	0.2		No					0		25	51	23	71.3	%	1,319

Total:							99.9	%	29.5	%	48	27	17	8	0	0	0	0	0.0	%	8,492,208

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Toronto 3 Edmonton 5	+0.5
Philadelphia 2 Ottawa 3 (ot)	+0.0
New York 0 Los Angeles 2	+0.0
Winnipeg 1 Calgary 4	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Toronto vs Los Angeles	-0.4-0.3-0.3+0.1+0.1+0.5
Philadelphia vs Denver	+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.1
Ottawa vs Halifax	+0.0+0.0*+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
Calgary vs Ontario	+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Last four teams qualify for first overall pick

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16

67	-68						100
66		21	1		-	0	100	0
65		20	1		-	1	100	0
64		20	2		-	0	99	1	0
		19	1		-	2	99	1	0
63		19	2		-	1	97	3	0
62		19	3		-	0	93	7	0
		18	2		-	2	93	7	0
61		18	3		-	1	85	15	0	0
		17	2		-	3	84	16	0	0
60		18	4		-	0	73	25	2	0
		17	3		-	2	71	27	2	0
59		17	4		-	1	55	39	6	0	0
		16	3		-	3	53	40	7	0
58		17	5		-	0	37	47	14	1	0
		16	4		-	2	35	48	16	1	0
		15	3		-	4	33	48	18	2	0
57		16	5		-	1	19	46	29	5	0	0
		15	4		-	3	17	45	31	6	0	0
56		16	6		-	0	8	35	41	14	1	0
		15	5		-	2	7	33	42	16	2	0
		14	4		-	4	6	31	42	19	2	0
55		15	6		-	1	2	18	42	31	7	0	0
		14	5		-	3	2	16	40	33	8	0
54		15	7		-	0	0	8	31	42	18	2	0
		14	6		-	2	0	6	29	42	20	2	0
		13	5		-	4	0	5	26	43	23	3	0
53		14	7		-	1	0	2	15	40	35	8	0
		13	6		-	3	0	1	13	39	37	10	0
52		14	8		-	0	0	0	6	28	46	19	1	0
		13	7		-	2	0	0	5	26	47	21	1	0
51		13	8		-	1		0	1	13	44	37	4	0
		12	7		-	3		0	1	12	43	40	5	0
50		13	9		-	0		0	0	5	33	50	11	0	0
		12	8		-	2			0	4	31	52	12	0	0
49		12	9		-	1		0	0	1	18	55	24	1	0
48		12	10		-	0			0	0	9	49	38	4	0
		11	9		-	2				0	8	48	40	4	0
47		11	10		-	1				0	3	36	51	10	1	0
46		11	11		-	0				0	1	22	55	20	2	0
45		10	11		-	1					0	11	49	33	7	0
44		10	12		-	0					0	5	39	42	13	1
43		9	12		-	1						2	27	44	24	3
42		9	13		-	0						0	13	42	37	8
41		8	13		-	1							3	34	50	13
40		8	14		-	0							4	16	52	28
39		7	14		-	1								17	56	28
38		7	15		-	0								7	27	67
36	-37														100
24		0	22		-	0										0	6	23	43	23	6

Total:							29	23	18	13	9	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0