Denver Dragons Playoff Chances 1

Lost to Florida 0-1, playoff odds down 0.03 to 0.02%

3 points 1 12-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Lottery Eligibility	100.0*	Average seed
Denver 0 Florida 1	-0.0		+2.3		-0.1
Pittsburgh 1 Phoenix 4			-0.3		-0.0
Winnipeg 1 Calgary 4			-0.2
New York 0 Los Angeles 2			-0.2		+0.0
Halifax 2 Ontario 6			-0.2

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Lottery Eligibility	100.0*	Average seed
Philadelphia vs Denver	-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.2		+0.9-2.0-1.9-6.2-6.0-6.1		-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
New York vs Anaheim			+0.9+0.9+0.8+0.3+0.4-0.2		-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0
Ottawa vs Halifax			-0.1+0.4+0.4+0.8+0.9+0.9
Pittsburgh vs Florida			+0.8+0.8+0.8+0.3+0.3-0.4
Phoenix vs Winnipeg			-0.2+0.4+0.3+0.5+0.5+0.1		-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Denver finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres	Chance will finish regular season at seed								Lottery
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Eligibility		Count

47		22	0		-	0	In		No	1	18	78	3					No		1,319
36		15	4		-	3	33.3	%	No				33	67				No		3	*
35		14	4		-	4	25.0		No				25	75				No		4	*
34		14	5		-	3	Out		No					100				No		20	*
33		14	6		-	2	2.7		No				3	97				No		73	*
32		13	6		-	3	6.4		No				6	94				No		204	*
31		13	7		-	2	2.8		No				3	96	1			No		536	*
30		12	7		-	3	1.9		No				2	97	1			No		1,486	*
29		12	8		-	2	1.1		No				1	95	4			0.0	%	3,615	*
28		11	8		-	3	0.7		No				1	92	7	0		0.2		8,188	*
27		11	9		-	2	0.3		No				0	87	13	0		1.1		17,536	*
26		10	9		-	3	0.2		No				0	78	21	1	0	3.4		34,870	*
25		10	10		-	2	0.1		No				0	65	31	4	0	9.4		65,074	*
24		9	10		-	3	0.0		No				0	50	40	9	1	20.9		113,833	*
23		9	11		-	2	0.0		No				0	39	46	14	1	37.5		86,017
		8	10		-	4	0.0		No				0	31	47	20	2	41.0		100,768	*
22		8	11		-	3	0.0		No				0	20	46	29	5	62.1		141,536
		9	12		-	1	Out		No					20	45	29	6	62.3		145,735	*
21		8	12		-	2	Out		No					12	41	38	10	80.6		199,851
		7	11		-	4	Out		No					8	34	43	15	83.4		213,076	*
20		7	12		-	3	Out		No					3	24	48	24	94.3		271,195
		8	13		-	1	Out		No					6	32	45	17	92.4		173,575
		6	11		-	5	Out		No					1	16	47	35	96.0		108,793	*
19		7	13		-	2	Out		No					1	16	47	36	98.6		356,271
		6	12		-	4	Out		No					0	9	43	48	99.1		227,350
		8	14		-	0	Out		No					2	14	43	41	98.6		116,703	*
18		6	13		-	3	Out		No					0	5	35	61	99.9		395,139
		7	14		-	1	Out		No					0	8	41	50	99.8		287,189
		5	12		-	5	Out		No					0	2	26	72	99.9		135,350	*
17		6	14		-	2	Out		No					0	2	26	72	100.0		480,161
		5	13		-	4	Out		No					0	1	18	81	100.0		265,077
		7	15		-	0	Out		No					0	3	26	71	100.0		153,689	*
16		5	14		-	3	0.0		No				0	0	0	11	89	100.0		429,366
		6	15		-	1	Out		No					0	1	17	82	100.0		361,783
		4	13		-	5	Out		No						0	6	94	Yes		121,675	*
15		5	15		-	2	0.0		No				0		0	6	94	Yes		487,480
		4	14		-	4	Out		No						0	3	97	Yes		225,439
		6	16		-	0	Out		No						0	8	91	Yes		159,817	*
14		5	16		-	1	Out		No						0	3	97	Yes		344,392
		4	15		-	3	0.0		No				0		0	1	99	Yes		417,434	*
13		4	16		-	2	Out		No						0	1	99	Yes		363,715
		3	15		-	4	Out		No							0	100	Yes		150,043	*
		5	17		-	0	Out		No						0	1	99	Yes		115,044
12		4	17		-	1	Out		No							0	100	Yes		241,157
		3	16		-	3	Out		No							0	100	Yes		224,566	*
11		3	17		-	2	Out		No							0	100	Yes		191,621
		4	18		-	0	Out		No							0	100	Yes		133,909	*
10		3	18		-	1	Out		No							0	100	Yes		201,381	*
4	-9						Out		No								100	Yes		217,652	*
3		0	22		-	0	0.2		No				0				100	Yes		1,498

Total:							0.0	%	No	0	0	0	0	4	9	18	69	93.5	%	8,492,208

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Denver 0 Florida 1	+0.2
Halifax 2 Ontario 6	-0.0
Winnipeg 1 Calgary 4	-0.0
New York 0 Los Angeles 2	-0.0
Pittsburgh 1 Phoenix 4	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Philadelphia vs Denver	+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5
Ottawa vs Halifax	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
New York vs Anaheim	+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0

What If

Last four teams qualify for first overall pick

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16

47		22	0		-	0			0	0	6	36	53	5	0
36		15	4		-	3									33		67
35		14	4		-	4										25	75
34		14	5		-	3										5	95
33		14	6		-	2									1	8	90
32		13	6		-	3									0	11	89
31		13	7		-	2										6	93	1
30		12	7		-	3									0	3	95	2
29		12	8		-	2									0	2	93	5	0
28		11	8		-	3									0	1	88	10	0
27		11	9		-	2										0	80	18	1	0
26		10	9		-	3										0	69	28	3	0	0
25		10	10		-	2										0	53	38	9	1	0
24		9	10		-	3										0	35	44	18	3	0
23		9	11		-	2											20	43	29	8	1	0
		8	10		-	4										0	18	41	31	9	1	0
22		8	11		-	3											7	29	39	20	4	0
		9	12		-	1										0	9	33	38	17	3	0
21		8	12		-	2											2	17	37	32	10	1
		7	11		-	4											2	15	36	34	12	1
20		7	12		-	3											0	5	24	40	25	5
		8	13		-	1											1	7	27	40	22	4
		6	11		-	5											0	4	20	40	29	7
19		7	13		-	2											0	1	12	35	39	13
		6	12		-	4											0	1	9	33	41	16
		8	14		-	0											0	1	11	34	40	14
18		6	13		-	3											0	0	3	20	46	31
		7	14		-	1											0	0	4	23	46	27
		5	12		-	5												0	2	17	46	35
17		6	14		-	2												0	1	9	41	49
		5	13		-	4												0	0	7	38	54
		7	15		-	0											0	0	1	11	43	45
16		5	14		-	3												0	0	2	27	71
		6	15		-	1												0	0	3	30	67
		4	13		-	5													0	2	23	75
15		5	15		-	2													0	1	16	84
		4	14		-	4													0	0	13	86
		6	16		-	0													0	1	17	83
14		5	16		-	1														0	8	92
		4	15		-	3														0	6	94
13		4	16		-	2														0	3	97
		3	15		-	4														0	2	98
		5	17		-	0														0	3	97
12		4	17		-	1														0	1	99
		3	16		-	3														0	1	99
11		3	17		-	2															0	100
		4	18		-	0															0	100
10		3	18		-	1															0	100
9		2	18		-	2															0	100
3	-8																					100

Total:									0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	4	7	11	20	56