Edmonton Empire Playoff Chances 1

Beat Toronto 5-3, playoff odds up 2.9 to 3.2%

14 points 6 6-2

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Lottery Eligibility	100.0*	Average seed
Toronto 3 Edmonton 5	+0.3		-0.1		+0.1
Philadelphia 2 Ottawa 3 (ot)	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Lottery Eligibility	100.0*	Average seed
Vancouver vs Edmonton	-1.1-0.4-0.4+1.1+1.1+1.2		+0.0-0.0-0.0No-0.0-0.0		-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.2
Calgary vs Ontario	+0.6+0.0+0.1-0.6-0.6-0.5
Ottawa vs Halifax	-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.5+0.3+0.9

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Edmonton finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed								Lottery
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Eligibility		Count

58	22	0		-	0	99.8	%	41.5	%	57	38	4		0				No		1,342
57	21	0		-	1	77.0		12.2		27	41	9		23				No		74
56	21	1		-	0	76.4		5.5		18	40	18	1	24				No		635	*
55	20	1		-	1	71.2		1.3		8	34	25	3	29				No		1,659	*
54	20	2		-	0	62.8		0.2		3	22	31	6	37				No		6,353	*
53	19	2		-	1	50.5		0.0		1	11	28	11	49	0			No		13,006	*
52	19	3		-	0	41.2		No		0	5	21	15	59	0			No		35,630	*
51	18	3		-	1	30.7		No		0	1	12	17	69	0			No		60,835	*
50	18	4		-	0	23.7		No		0	0	7	16	76	0			No		131,694	*
49	17	4		-	1	15.9		No			0	3	13	83	1			No		190,783	*
48	17	5		-	0	12.5		No			0	1	11	87	1			No		175,250
	16	4		-	2	10.0		No			0	1	9	88	2			No		162,389	*
47	16	5		-	1	7.1		No			0	0	7	90	3			No		333,844
	15	4		-	3	5.9		No			0	0	6	90	5			No		87,337	*
46	16	6		-	0	5.0		No			0	0	5	91	4			No		347,760	*
	15	5		-	2	3.9		No				0	4	90	6	0		No		282,293
45	15	6		-	1	2.6		No				0	3	88	10	0		No		533,588
	14	5		-	3	2.1		No				0	2	83	15	0		No		148,143	*
44	15	7		-	0	1.8		No				0	2	85	14	0		No		432,254
	14	6		-	2	1.4		No				0	1	79	20	0		No		444,141	*
43	14	7		-	1	1.0		No				0	1	73	26	0		No		643,096
	13	6		-	3	0.9		No				0	1	65	34	0		No		182,857	*
42	14	8		-	0	0.8		No				0	1	67	32	0		No		456,226
	13	7		-	2	0.7		No				0	1	58	41	0		No		468,412	*
41	13	8		-	1	0.7		No				0	1	51	49	0		No		594,509
	12	7		-	3	0.6		No					1	42	58	0		No		167,396	*
40	13	9		-	0	0.6		No				0	1	43	56	0		No		373,755
	12	8		-	2	0.6		No				0	1	34	65	0		No		377,140	*
39	12	9		-	1	0.6		No					1	28	72	0		No		422,893
	11	8		-	3	0.6		No					1	21	79	0		No		115,845	*
38	12	10		-	0	0.6		No					1	22	78	0		No		240,017
	11	9		-	2	0.6		No					1	16	84	0		No		230,589	*
37	11	10		-	1	0.6		No					1	11	89	0		No		295,706	*
36	11	11		-	0	0.6		No					1	8	91	0		No		120,864
	10	10		-	2	0.6		No					1	6	94	0		No		108,657	*
35	10	11		-	1	0.6		No					1	4	96	0		No		126,156	*
34	10	12		-	0	0.6		No					1	2	97	0		No		88,274	*
33	9	12		-	1	0.6		No					1	1	98	0		No		41,993	*
32	9	13		-	0	0.5		No					1	0	98	1		No		26,385	*
31	8	13		-	1	0.6		No					1	0	97	2		No		10,935	*
30	8	14		-	0	0.4		No					0	0	96	3		No		6,350	*
29	7	14		-	1	0.6		No					1	0	92	7		0.0	%	2,090	*
28	7	15		-	0	0.3		No					0		88	12	0	0.5		1,158	*
27	6	15		-	1	0.3		No					0		76	23	1	2.0		346	*
26	6	16		-	0	0.6		No					1		66	30	2	4.3		164	*
25	5	16		-	1	2.2		No					2		40	53	4	20.0		45	*
24	5	17		-	0	Out		No							31	54	15	23.1		13	*
23	4	17		-	1	Out		No							20	80		40.0		5
22	4	18		-	0	Out		No							33	67		33.3		3	*
14	0	22		-	0	0.2		No					0			1	99	Yes		1,319

Total:						3.2	%	0.0	%	0	0	1	3	59	38	0	0	0.0	%	8,492,208

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Toronto 3 Edmonton 5	-0.2
Denver 0 Florida 1	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Vancouver vs Edmonton	+0.3+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.3
Pittsburgh vs Florida	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
New York vs Anaheim	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0

What If

Last four teams qualify for first overall pick

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16

58	22	0		-	0	42	46	12	0
57	21	0		-	1	12	50	32	4	1
56	21	1		-	0	6	31	40	21	3
55	20	1		-	1	1	14	38	35	11	1
54	20	2		-	0	0	5	23	41	26	6	0
53	19	2		-	1	0	1	9	31	40	17	2
52	19	3		-	0		0	2	16	41	33	7	0
51	18	3		-	1		0	0	5	28	46	19	1
50	18	4		-	0			0	1	15	45	35	3	0
49	17	4		-	1			0	0	6	34	50	10	0
48	17	5		-	0				0	2	22	56	20	0	0
	16	4		-	2			0	0	2	20	56	22	0	0
47	16	5		-	1				0	0	10	52	36	1	0
	15	4		-	3				0	0	9	50	39	2	0
46	16	6		-	0					0	4	42	49	4	0
	15	5		-	2				0	0	4	40	51	5	0
45	15	6		-	1					0	1	27	60	11	0
	14	5		-	3					0	1	25	61	13	1
44	15	7		-	0					0	0	17	62	19	2
	14	6		-	2					0	0	15	61	22	2
43	14	7		-	1					0	0	8	56	32	5
	13	6		-	3						0	7	53	34	6
42	14	8		-	0						0	4	46	41	9	0
	13	7		-	2						0	3	42	44	11	0
41	13	8		-	1						0	1	31	49	19	0
	12	7		-	3						0	1	28	50	21	0
40	13	9		-	0						0	0	20	50	29	0
	12	8		-	2							0	18	50	32	0
39	12	9		-	1							0	11	45	44	0
	11	8		-	3							0	9	44	47	0
38	12	10		-	0							0	6	37	57	0
	11	9		-	2							0	5	36	60	0
37	11	10		-	1							0	2	27	71	0
36	11	11		-	0							0	1	19	80	0
	10	10		-	2								1	17	82	0
35	10	11		-	1								0	11	88	0
34	10	12		-	0								0	6	93	1	0
33	9	12		-	1								0	3	95	2	0
32	9	13		-	0								0	2	94	4	0
31	8	13		-	1									1	91	8	0
30	8	14		-	0									0	85	14	1
29	7	14		-	1										74	24	2	0
28	7	15		-	0										59	35	6	1
27	6	15		-	1										39	45	14	2
26	6	16		-	0										18	49	29	4
25	5	16		-	1										7	22	51	16	4
24	5	17		-	0											31	46	8	15
23	4	17		-	1											20	40		40
22	4	18		-	0												67	33
14	0	22		-	0															14	86

Total:						0	0	0	0	1	4	15	33	27	20	0	0	0	0	0	0