Philadelphia Bullets Playoff Chances 1

Lost to Ottawa 2-3 (ot), playoff odds unchanged at 99.98%

23 points 11 2-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Lottery Eligibility	100.0*	Average seed
Philadelphia 2 Ottawa 3 (ot)	In		-1.5		No		-0.0
Toronto 3 Edmonton 5			+3.3
New York 0 Los Angeles 2			-0.2				-0.0
Winnipeg 1 Calgary 4			-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Lottery Eligibility	100.0*	Average seed
Philadelphia vs Denver	+0.0InIn*InIn-0.2		+0.6+0.7+0.6-4.4-4.6-8.2		NoNoNoNoNo+0.2		+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.2
Toronto vs Los Angeles			-0.1-1.3-1.3-0.8-0.9+0.5				+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Calgary vs Ontario			-0.4-0.8-0.7*-0.1-0.2+0.6
Ottawa vs Halifax			-0.1-0.1-0.0*+0.3+0.7+0.9

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Philadelphia finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed								Lottery
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Eligibility		Count

66	-67						In		99.9	%	100								No		6,484	*
65		21	1		-	0	In		99.5		100	0							No		21,091	*
64		20	1		-	1	In		98.4		100	0							No		30,799	*
63		20	2		-	0	In		96.2		99	1							No		83,871
		19	1		-	2	In		95.2		98	2							No		21,679	*
62		19	2		-	1	In		89.6		97	3							No		131,699	*
61		19	3		-	0	In		81.2		94	6							No		231,000
		18	2		-	2	In		78.7		93	7							No		84,900	*
60		18	3		-	1	In		64.3		88	12							No		309,761
		17	2		-	3	In		60.5		86	14							No		34,332	*
59		18	4		-	0	In		47.8		80	20	0						No		438,636
		17	3		-	2	In		44.0		78	22							No		198,507	*
58		17	4		-	1	In		27.0		69	31	0						No		537,473
		16	3		-	3	In		23.6		67	33							No		72,525	*
57		17	5		-	0	In		13.6		58	42	0						No		609,005
		16	4		-	2	In		11.4		56	44	0						No		316,324	*
56		16	5		-	1	100.0	%	4.2		45	55	0		0				No		678,582
		15	4		-	3	In		3.3		42	57	0						No		102,646	*
55		16	6		-	0	In		1.2		34	66	0						No		640,556
		15	5		-	2	In		0.9		32	68	0						No		340,387
		14	4		-	4	In		0.8		29	70	0						No		22,670	*
54		15	6		-	1	In		0.2		23	76	1	0					No		643,231
		14	5		-	3	In		0.1		21	78	1						No		104,874	*
53		15	7		-	0	In		0.0		15	82	3	0					No		519,736
		14	6		-	2	In		0.0		14	83	3						No		287,876
		13	5		-	4	In		0.0		12	84	4						No		21,073	*
52		14	7		-	1	In		0.0		8	86	6	0					No		465,994
		13	6		-	3	In		0.0		7	86	7	0					No		79,915	*
51		14	8		-	0	In		No		5	83	12	0					No		331,424
		13	7		-	2	In		No		4	83	13	0					No		200,549	*
50		13	8		-	1	In		No		2	78	20	0					No		264,089
		12	7		-	3	In		No		2	76	22	0					No		45,242	*
49		13	9		-	0	In		No		1	67	32	0					No		167,097
		12	8		-	2	In		No		1	64	34	0					No		100,077	*
48		12	9		-	1	100.0		No		0	55	44	1	0				No		136,372	*
47		12	10		-	0	In		No		0	42	56	2					No		66,440
		11	9		-	2	In		No		0	39	59	2					No		38,342	*
46		11	10		-	1	In		No		0	30	65	5					No		47,027	*
45		11	11		-	0	100.0		No		0	18	73	9	0				No		32,518	*
44		10	11		-	1	In		No		0	11	73	16					No		12,930	*
43		10	12		-	0	In		No			6	70	24					No		8,125	*
42		9	12		-	1	In		No			3	62	35					No		2,723	*
41		9	13		-	0	In		No			1	53	46					No		1,543	*
40		8	13		-	1	In		No			0	40	60					No		460	*
39		8	14		-	0	In		No				29	71					No		210	*
38		7	14		-	1	In		No				15	85					No		61	*
37		7	15		-	0	In		No				8	92					No		25	*
36		6	15		-	1	In		No				50	50					No		4
35		5	15		-	2	In		No				20	80					No		5	*
23		0	22		-	0	2.7		No					3	23	47	26	1	71.2	%	1,319

Total:							100.0	%	16.2	%	40	54	6	0	0	0	0	0	0.0	%	8,492,208

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Toronto 3 Edmonton 5	-0.1
Philadelphia 2 Ottawa 3 (ot)	+0.1
New York 0 Los Angeles 2	+0.0
Winnipeg 1 Calgary 4	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Philadelphia vs Denver	-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.7
Ottawa vs Halifax	+0.0+0.0*+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1
Calgary vs Ontario	-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0
Toronto vs Los Angeles	-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Last four teams qualify for first overall pick

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16

67	22	0		-	0	100	0
66	21	0		-	1	100	0
65	21	1		-	0	100	0
64	20	1		-	1	98	2
63	20	2		-	0	96	4	0
	19	1		-	2	95	5	0
62	19	2		-	1	90	10	0	0
61	19	3		-	0	81	18	1	0
	18	2		-	2	79	20	1	0
60	18	3		-	1	64	32	4	0
	17	2		-	3	60	35	5	0
59	18	4		-	0	48	43	9	0	0
	17	3		-	2	44	44	11	1	0
58	17	4		-	1	27	48	22	3	0
	16	3		-	3	24	48	25	4	0
57	17	5		-	0	14	43	35	8	0	0
	16	4		-	2	11	40	37	10	1	0
56	16	5		-	1	4	27	44	22	3	0
	15	4		-	3	3	24	44	25	4	0
55	16	6		-	0	1	13	39	36	9	0	0
	15	5		-	2	1	11	37	39	11	1
	14	4		-	4	1	9	35	41	13	1
54	15	6		-	1	0	4	24	45	24	3	0
	14	5		-	3	0	3	21	45	28	4	0
53	15	7		-	0	0	1	12	39	39	9	0
	14	6		-	2	0	1	10	37	41	11	0
52	14	7		-	1	0	0	3	24	48	23	2	0
	13	6		-	3	0	0	3	21	48	26	2	0
51	14	8		-	0		0	1	12	44	38	5	0	0
	13	7		-	2		0	1	10	43	40	6	0
50	13	8		-	1		0	0	4	30	50	15	0	0
	12	7		-	3			0	3	28	51	17	0
49	13	9		-	0			0	1	18	53	27	1	0
	12	8		-	2			0	1	16	52	29	2	0
48	12	9		-	1			0	0	7	44	43	5	0
47	12	10		-	0				0	3	32	53	12	1	0
	11	9		-	2				0	3	29	54	14	1	0
46	11	10		-	1				0	1	17	55	25	2	0
45	11	11		-	0					0	8	47	37	7	0
44	10	11		-	1					0	3	34	46	16	1
43	10	12		-	0						1	19	47	28	4
42	9	12		-	1						0	10	40	39	11	0
41	9	13		-	0						0	4	27	49	20
40	8	13		-	1							1	17	45	37
39	8	14		-	0								6	38	56
38	7	14		-	1								5	23	70	2
37	7	15		-	0								4	20	76
36	6	15		-	1									25	75
35	5	15		-	2									20	80
23	0	22		-	0										0	4	24	41	25	4	0

Total:						16	18	18	18	15	10	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0