Philadelphia Flyers Playoff Chances 2013-2014

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.5 to 94.5%

18 points 8 3-2

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
NY Rangers 4 Anaheim 1	-0.1		+0.4
Winnipeg 5 Detroit 4			+0.2

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Carolina vs Philadelphia	-1.5-0.6-0.4+0.1+0.1+0.7		-2.3-1.0-0.8+0.8+1.0+0.9		-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1
Boston vs Dallas	-0.1-0.0-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1
Montreal vs St. Louis	-0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1+0.1		+0.2+0.2+0.1*-0.1-0.2-0.1
San Jose vs Buffalo	+0.1+0.0+0.2+0.0-0.0-0.1
Columbus vs Ottawa			+0.2+0.1-0.1-0.2*-0.2-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Philadelphia finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

137	-156						In		Yes		100																253	*
136		56	7		-	6	In		Yes		98				2												54	*
135		56	8		-	5	In		Yes		99				1												106	*
134		56	9		-	4	In		Yes		97				3												239	*
133		55	9		-	5	In		Yes		99				1	0											328	*
132		55	10		-	4	In		99.5	%	99				1	0											636	*
131		54	10		-	5	In		99.2		98	0			1	0	0	0									1,035	*
130		53	10		-	6	In		98.5		97	0			3	0											1,629	*
129		53	11		-	5	100.0	%	97.1		95	1			4	1	0	0	0								2,441	*
128		52	11		-	6	99.9		95.1		94	1	0		4	0	0		0								3,767	*
127		52	12		-	5	100.0		93.8		93	2			4	1	0	0				0					5,515	*
126		51	12		-	6	100.0		90.0		91	3	0		5	1	0	0	0		0						7,810	*
125		51	13		-	5	100.0		84.8		88	5	0		6	1	0	0	0								10,969	*
124		50	13		-	6	100.0		79.7		85	7	0		6	1	0	0	0	0							14,538	*
123		50	14		-	5	100.0		72.3		82	9	0	0	7	1	0	0	0	0	0						19,469	*
122		49	14		-	6	99.9		63.5		76	13	1	0	8	2	0	0	0	0		0					25,593	*
121		49	15		-	5	100.0		53.5		71	17	1	0	9	2	1	0	0	0	0						32,326	*
120		48	15		-	6	99.9		42.9		65	21	2	0	9	3	1	0	0	0	0	0					40,118	*
119		48	16		-	5	99.9		31.9		57	25	3	0	10	3	1	0	0	0	0	0		0			48,745	*
118		47	16		-	6	99.9		22.3		49	30	5	0	11	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0				58,263	*
117		46	16		-	7	99.8		14.5		42	33	7	0	11	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0				67,530	*
116		46	17		-	6	99.8		8.5		34	35	11	1	12	5	2	1	0	0	0	0	0				77,880	*
115		45	17		-	7	99.7		4.4		26	36	14	2	13	6	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0			86,533	*
114		45	18		-	6	99.5		2.1		19	36	18	3	13	6	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0			96,454	*
113		44	18		-	7	99.4		0.9		14	33	23	4	13	7	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0			102,301	*
112		44	19		-	6	99.2		0.3		10	30	26	6	14	8	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0			108,650	*
111		43	19		-	7	98.8		0.1		6	25	28	9	14	9	5	2	1	0	0	0	0	0			112,550	*
110		43	20		-	6	98.4		0.0		4	20	30	13	14	10	6	2	1	0	0	0	0	0			114,827	*
109		42	20		-	7	97.9		0.0		2	16	30	16	14	10	7	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0		114,325	*
108		42	21		-	6	97.3		No		1	12	29	20	14	11	8	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	112,183	*
107		41	21		-	7	96.5		No		1	8	26	24	13	12	9	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0		108,482	*
106		41	22		-	6	95.4		No		0	5	23	27	13	12	10	5	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	102,283	*
105		40	22		-	7	94.5		No		0	3	19	30	12	12	11	6	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	94,993	*
104		40	23		-	6	93.1		No		0	2	16	32	12	13	12	7	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	86,832	*
103		39	23		-	7	91.2		No		0	1	13	33	11	13	12	8	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	76,968	*
102		39	24		-	6	89.5		No		0	1	10	34	11	13	13	9	5	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	68,984	*
101		38	24		-	7	87.2		No		0	0	7	33	10	13	14	10	6	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	59,142	*
100		38	25		-	6	84.9		No		0	0	6	32	9	13	15	10	7	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	50,555	*
99		37	25		-	7	82.0		No		0	0	4	31	9	12	15	11	8	5	3	1	1	0	0	0	42,354	*
98		37	26		-	6	79.1		No		0	0	3	29	8	12	15	12	8	5	3	2	1	0	0	0	35,148	*
97		36	26		-	7	75.8		No			0	2	28	7	11	15	13	9	6	4	2	1	1	0	0	28,086	*
96		36	27		-	6	72.2		No			0	2	25	6	10	15	13	10	7	5	3	2	1	0	0	22,166	*
95		35	27		-	7	68.4		No			0	1	23	6	10	15	14	11	8	6	3	2	1	0	0	17,605	*
94		35	28		-	6	64.6		No			0	1	22	5	9	14	13	12	9	6	4	2	1	1	0	13,481	*
93		34	28		-	7	60.6		No				1	19	4	9	14	14	12	10	7	5	3	2	1	0	10,174	*
92		34	29		-	6	56.9		No				0	17	4	8	13	14	13	10	8	5	4	2	1	0	7,545	*
91		33	29		-	7	52.2		No				0	15	3	8	12	14	13	11	8	7	4	2	1	0	5,592	*
90		33	30		-	6	48.3		No				0	13	3	7	12	13	12	12	9	7	5	4	2	0	4,038	*
89		32	30		-	7	41.5		No				0	11	2	5	11	12	14	13	10	8	7	4	2	1	2,825	*
88		32	31		-	6	39.4		No				0	10	1	5	11	13	13	12	10	10	6	5	3	1	1,987	*
87		31	31		-	7	34.8		No				0	9	2	4	9	12	12	13	11	9	9	6	3	2	1,361	*
86		31	32		-	6	30.6		No					7	1	4	8	11	14	15	11	10	8	6	3	1	869	*
85		30	32		-	7	26.7		No					7	0	2	6	11	14	13	12	10	9	8	5	2	651	*
84		30	33		-	6	22.4		No					5	1	3	6	8	13	15	11	9	11	9	6	3	388	*
83		29	33		-	7	22.3		No					2	0	1	7	12	9	12	15	13	7	6	10	5	260	*
82		29	34		-	6	23.5		No					2		1	7	14	12	8	14	12	9	12	4	4	162	*
81		29	35		-	5	15.0		No					1	1	3	4	6	12	10	13	10	11	17	9	4	113	*
80		27	34		-	8	15.0		No							2	5	8	5	5	17	13	17	10	12	7	60	*
79		27	35		-	7	4.8		No					2				2		17	26	17	10	14	7	5	42	*
78		25	34		-	10	11.1		No					6			6		11	6	17	6	6	28	11	6	18	*
77		27	37		-	5	10.0		No									10		15	20	5	5	25	15	5	20	*
76		25	36		-	8	11.1		No							11				11	11	22	11		11	22	9	*
75		27	39		-	3	Out		No														33	33		33	3	*
18	-74						Out		No																	100	177	*

Total:							94.5	%	7.6	%	15	16	16	15	12	9	7	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	2,110,440

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday	None

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Carolina vs Philadelphia	+0.6+0.2+0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

133	-156						100
132		55	10		-	4	100	0
131		54	10		-	5	99	1
130		53	10		-	6	98	2
129		53	11		-	5	97	3	0
128		52	11		-	6	95	5	0
127		52	12		-	5	94	6	0
126		51	12		-	6	90	10	0	0
125		51	13		-	5	85	14	1	0
124		50	13		-	6	80	19	2	0
123		50	14		-	5	72	24	3	0
122		49	14		-	6	63	31	5	1	0
121		49	15		-	5	53	36	9	1	0
120		48	15		-	6	43	40	14	2	0	0
119		48	16		-	5	32	42	21	5	1	0	0
118		47	16		-	6	22	39	27	9	2	0	0
117		46	16		-	7	15	34	32	15	4	1	0	0
116		46	17		-	6	9	27	33	22	8	2	0	0
115		45	17		-	7	4	19	31	27	14	4	1	0	0
114		45	18		-	6	2	12	26	30	20	8	2	0	0	0
113		44	18		-	7	1	6	19	29	26	14	4	1	0	0
112		44	19		-	6	0	3	12	24	29	20	9	2	0	0
111		43	19		-	7	0	1	6	17	27	26	15	5	1	0	0
110		43	20		-	6	0	0	3	10	22	28	22	11	3	0	0	0
109		42	20		-	7	0	0	1	5	15	26	27	17	6	1	0	0
108		42	21		-	6		0	0	2	9	21	28	24	12	3	0	0
107		41	21		-	7		0	0	1	4	14	26	28	19	7	1	0	0
106		41	22		-	6		0	0	0	2	8	19	29	26	12	3	0	0
105		40	22		-	7			0	0	1	4	13	26	31	20	6	1	0
104		40	23		-	6			0	0	0	2	7	20	32	27	11	1	0
103		39	23		-	7				0	0	1	4	13	28	33	18	3	0	0
102		39	24		-	6					0	0	1	7	22	36	26	7	1	0
101		38	24		-	7						0	1	4	16	34	33	12	1	0	0
100		38	25		-	6						0	0	2	10	29	38	18	3	0	0
99		37	25		-	7							0	1	5	21	39	26	6	1	0	0
98		37	26		-	6							0	0	2	15	37	32	12	2	0	0
97		36	26		-	7							0	0	1	9	31	37	18	4	0	0
96		36	27		-	6								0	0	5	23	38	24	8	1	0
95		35	27		-	7									0	2	15	34	31	14	3	0	0
94		35	28		-	6									0	1	9	28	34	20	7	1	0	0
93		34	28		-	7									0	0	5	19	33	26	12	4	0	0
92		34	29		-	6										0	2	12	28	30	19	7	2	0	0
91		33	29		-	7										0	1	7	20	31	25	13	4	1	0
90		33	30		-	6											0	3	13	25	28	20	8	2	0	0
89		32	30		-	7											0	1	6	18	27	26	16	5	1	0	0
88		32	31		-	6											0	0	3	11	21	27	22	11	5	1	0
87		31	31		-	7												0	1	5	13	26	25	17	10	2	1	0
86		31	32		-	6													0	2	9	18	23	22	15	7	3	0	0
85		30	32		-	7													0	0	3	8	22	26	22	12	4	1	0
84		30	33		-	6														0	2	4	11	20	28	19	11	4	2
83		29	33		-	7																2	6	12	23	22	25	7	3	1
82		29	34		-	6																	2	10	19	20	22	19	6	2
81		29	35		-	5																		3	8	10	32	32	12	1	2		1
80		27	34		-	8																				13	13	27	23	12	10		2
79		27	35		-	7																			2	12	12	24	29	7	7	5	2
78		25	34		-	10																				6	6	11	22	22	22	11
77		27	37		-	5																							35	30	15	10	10
76		25	36		-	8																						11		22	44	11	11
75		27	39		-	3																							67			33
74		26	39		-	4																									50			50
70		23	40		-	6																												100
18		0	69		-	0																														100

Total:							8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	8	7	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0