Calgary Flames Playoff Chances 2013-2014

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.003 to 99%

19 points 9 4-1

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Winnipeg 5 Detroit 4			+0.4
NY Rangers 4 Anaheim 1			+0.4

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Minnesota vs Calgary	-0.2+0.0-0.0*+0.1+0.1+0.2		-2.9-0.7-0.7+2.1+2.2+2.5		-0.2-0.0-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.2
Columbus vs Ottawa			+0.3+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.1
Montreal vs St. Louis			+0.2+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

135	-155						In		99.9	%	100																675	*
134		55	8		-	5	In		99.7		99				1												380	*
133		55	9		-	4	In		99.9		100				0												690	*
132		54	9		-	5	In		99.5		100	0			0	0											1,116	*
131		54	10		-	4	In		99.2		99	0			0												1,790	*
130		53	10		-	5	In		98.4		99	1			0		0										2,763	*
129		53	11		-	4	In		97.4		99	1			0		0										4,277	*
128		52	11		-	5	In		96.0		98	2			1	0											6,094	*
127		51	11		-	6	In		93.7		96	3			1	0	0										8,936	*
126		51	12		-	5	100.0	%	90.7		95	4	0		1	0	0	0				0					12,104	*
125		50	12		-	6	In		86.3		93	6	0		1	0	0	0									16,819	*
124		50	13		-	5	100.0		80.2		90	8	0		1	0	0	0	0								22,074	*
123		49	13		-	6	100.0		73.6		87	11	0		1	0	0	0		0							28,701	*
122		49	14		-	5	100.0		64.4		82	15	1	0	2	0	0	0	0		0	0					36,029	*
121		48	14		-	6	100.0		54.5		76	20	1	0	2	0	0	0		0	0						44,985	*
120		48	15		-	5	100.0		43.8		70	25	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0						54,382	*
119		47	15		-	6	100.0		33.4		63	30	4	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0						64,107	*
118		47	16		-	5	100.0		23.6		56	35	6	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0						73,775	*
117		46	16		-	6	100.0		15.4		47	39	9	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0						84,111	*
116		46	17		-	5	100.0		9.1		40	43	13	1	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0					93,844	*
115		45	17		-	6	100.0		4.9		32	44	17	2	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0				101,867	*
114		45	18		-	5	99.9		2.3		25	44	22	3	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0					108,154	*
113		44	18		-	6	99.9		1.0		19	43	27	4	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0				112,908	*
112		44	19		-	5	99.9		0.4		14	40	32	7	5	2	1	0	0	0	0	0					115,939	*
111		43	19		-	6	99.9		0.1		10	36	36	9	5	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0				117,147	*
110		42	19		-	7	99.8		0.0		7	30	40	13	6	2	1	0	0	0	0	0					115,233	*
109		42	20		-	6	99.8		0.0		5	26	42	17	6	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0				111,527	*
108		41	20		-	7	99.6		0.0		3	21	42	21	7	3	2	1	0	0	0	0					106,038	*
107		41	21		-	6	99.5		0.0		2	16	42	26	7	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0			98,309	*
106		40	21		-	7	99.3		No		1	12	40	31	7	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0				90,250	*
105		40	22		-	6	99.1		No		1	9	37	35	7	5	3	1	1	0	0	0	0				81,707	*
104		39	22		-	7	98.7		No		0	6	34	40	8	5	4	2	1	0	0	0	0				72,622	*
103		39	23		-	6	98.3		No		0	5	31	43	8	6	4	2	1	0	0	0	0				62,828	*
102		38	23		-	7	97.9		No		0	3	27	46	8	6	5	3	1	1	0	0	0	0			53,018	*
101		38	24		-	6	97.2		No		0	2	23	48	8	7	6	3	2	1	0	0	0	0			44,848	*
100		37	24		-	7	96.4		No		0	2	20	50	8	7	6	4	2	1	0	0	0	0			36,452	*
99		37	25		-	6	95.3		No		0	1	16	51	8	8	7	5	3	1	1	0	0	0			29,574	*
98		36	25		-	7	94.3		No		0	1	14	51	7	8	8	6	3	1	1	0	0	0			23,504	*
97		36	26		-	6	93.3		No			0	11	51	7	9	8	7	3	2	1	0	0	0			18,632	*
96		35	26		-	7	91.4		No			0	9	50	7	8	10	7	4	2	1	1	0	0			14,258	*
95		35	27		-	6	89.9		No			0	7	49	7	9	10	8	5	3	2	1	0	0			10,571	*
94		34	27		-	7	86.6		No			0	5	47	7	9	10	9	6	4	2	1	0	0			8,056	*
93		34	28		-	6	85.1		No			0	5	45	6	8	11	10	7	4	2	1	1	0			5,735	*
92		33	28		-	7	83.0		No			0	3	44	5	8	11	11	7	5	3	1	1	0			4,265	*
91		33	29		-	6	78.0		No				2	40	5	8	11	11	9	6	4	2	1	0			2,952	*
90		32	29		-	7	76.2		No			0	2	39	4	8	12	11	10	7	4	2	1	0			2,095	*
89		32	30		-	6	72.3		No				1	35	4	8	13	12	10	8	6	2	1	1			1,417	*
88		31	30		-	7	71.2		No				1	34	4	7	13	13	12	7	5	3	1	1			959	*
87		31	31		-	6	64.8		No				0	28	3	8	13	11	12	10	7	4	2	0			653	*
86		30	31		-	7	61.1		No				1	25	4	7	11	14	15	8	7	6	1	1			391	*
85		30	32		-	6	55.7		No				1	24	4	7	9	11	14	12	11	4	2	1			289	*
84		30	33		-	5	58.9		No				1	23	2	7	9	17	15	10	9	3	3	1			163	*
83		29	33		-	6	47.4		No					19		3	12	14	9	17	13	12		2			95	*
82		28	33		-	7	43.3		No					12	1	3	15	12	16	12	12	12	3	1			67	*
81		27	33		-	8	32.6		No					15		2	9	7	20	15	9	9	9	7			46	*
80		27	34		-	7	28.6		No					10		10		10	14	10	14	10	14	10			21	*
79		27	35		-	6	50.0		No					29				21	7	21	7	14					14	*
78		27	36		-	5	40.0		No					20				20			20	20		20			5	*
77		26	36		-	6	33.3		No									33		33	33						3	*
76		26	37		-	5	Out		No												50			50			2	*
19		0	68		-	0	Out		No															100			174

Total:							99.0	%	10.9	%	23	24	24	17	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0			2,110,440

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Winnipeg 5 Detroit 4	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Minnesota vs Calgary	+0.5+0.1+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Carolina vs Philadelphia	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

136	-155						100
135		56	8		-	4	100	0
134		55	8		-	5	100	0
133		55	9		-	4	100	0
132		54	9		-	5	99	1
131		54	10		-	4	99	1
130		53	10		-	5	98	2
129		53	11		-	4	97	3	0
128		52	11		-	5	96	4	0
127		51	11		-	6	94	6	0	0
126		51	12		-	5	91	9	0	0
125		50	12		-	6	86	13	1	0
124		50	13		-	5	80	18	1	0
123		49	13		-	6	74	24	3	0	0
122		49	14		-	5	64	30	5	0	0
121		48	14		-	6	55	36	9	1	0
120		48	15		-	5	44	40	14	2	0	0
119		47	15		-	6	33	41	20	5	1	0	0
118		47	16		-	5	24	40	26	8	2	0	0	0
117		46	16		-	6	15	35	31	14	4	0	0	0	0
116		46	17		-	5	9	28	34	21	7	1	0	0
115		45	17		-	6	5	20	32	26	13	4	1	0
114		45	18		-	5	2	12	27	30	19	7	2	0	0
113		44	18		-	6	1	7	20	29	25	13	4	1	0	0
112		44	19		-	5	0	3	13	25	28	20	8	2	0	0	0
111		43	19		-	6	0	1	7	18	28	26	14	5	1	0	0
110		42	19		-	7	0	0	3	11	23	28	21	9	3	0	0	0
109		42	20		-	6	0	0	1	6	16	26	27	16	6	1	0	0
108		41	20		-	7	0	0	0	3	10	21	29	23	11	3	0	0
107		41	21		-	6	0	0	0	1	5	15	26	28	18	6	1	0	0
106		40	21		-	7		0	0	0	2	9	21	30	25	11	2	0	0
105		40	22		-	6		0	0	0	1	4	14	27	30	18	5	0	0
104		39	22		-	7				0	0	2	8	21	31	26	10	1	0
103		39	23		-	6				0	0	1	4	14	29	32	16	3	0	0
102		38	23		-	7					0	0	2	8	23	35	25	6	0	0
101		38	24		-	6					0	0	1	4	17	34	32	11	1	0
100		37	24		-	7					0	0	0	2	11	29	37	18	3	0	0
99		37	25		-	6							0	1	6	22	39	25	6	1	0
98		36	25		-	7							0	0	3	15	36	32	11	2	0	0
97		36	26		-	6								0	1	9	31	37	17	4	0	0
96		35	26		-	7								0	0	5	23	38	25	8	1	0	0
95		35	27		-	6									0	2	15	35	31	13	3	0	0
94		34	27		-	7									0	1	10	27	34	20	7	1	0
93		34	28		-	6										0	5	19	32	27	12	3	1	0
92		33	28		-	7										0	2	12	27	30	19	7	1	0	0
91		33	29		-	6											1	5	19	32	25	13	4	1	0
90		32	29		-	7											0	3	11	26	29	20	8	2	1
89		32	30		-	6											0	1	6	18	26	26	16	5	2	0
88		31	30		-	7											0	0	3	9	22	28	21	12	4	1	0
87		31	31		-	6												0		4	13	22	25	20	10	3	1
86		30	31		-	7														2	6	16	24	25	18	6	2	0	0
85		30	32		-	6															4	11	19	23	23	13	6	1
84		30	33		-	5															1	4	12	26	21	19	12	6			1
83		29	33		-	6																2	2	13	22	31	19	9	2
82		28	33		-	7																1	1	7	19	24	27	9	9	1
81		27	33		-	8																2	2	2	7	24	22	22	11	7	2
80		27	34		-	7																				10	19	29	19	14	10
79		27	35		-	6																					14	14	29	36	7
78		27	36		-	5																						40		40		20
77		26	36		-	6																							33	67
76		26	37		-	5																										50	50
19		0	68		-	0																														100

Total:							11	11	10	10	10	9	9	8	7	6	5	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			0