Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Buffalo Sabres Playoff Chances 2013-2014

Did not play, playoff odds down 1.6 to 19.6%

16 points 8 8-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
NY Rangers 4 Anaheim 1	-0.4

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
San Jose vs Buffalo	-2.5-1.0-1.0+0.5+0.5+2.4		NoNoNo*-0.0No+0.0		-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.2
Boston vs Dallas	-0.3-0.3-0.2+0.2*+0.1+0.3
Montreal vs St. Louis	-0.3-0.2-0.3+0.1-0.0+0.2
Columbus vs Ottawa	-0.2-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.0+0.1
Florida vs Edmonton	-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Buffalo finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

148		66	0		-	0	In		Yes		100																174
118		49	13		-	4	In		50.0	%		50			50												2	*
117		46	11		-	9	In		No			33			67												3	*
116		47	13		-	6	In		25.0		25	25	25		25												4	*
115		47	14		-	5	85.7	%	No		43				29	14					14						7	*
114		45	13		-	8	In		No		7	20	7		27	27	13										15	*
113		44	13		-	9	In		No		6	23	16		32	16	3	3									31	*
112		44	14		-	8	95.7		2.1		11	23	11		30	13	4	4	2	2							47	*
111		44	15		-	7	98.4		No		3	8	15	2	32	27	10	2	2								62	*
110		42	14		-	10	98.5		No		5	16	11	7	29	18	10	4	1		1						133	*
109		42	15		-	9	97.6		No		2	12	13	4	31	22	8	6	2								245	*
108		42	16		-	8	93.0		No		0	4	10	7	31	25	11	5	5	1	1						388	*
107		41	16		-	9	94.9		No		1	3	12	8	26	25	12	8	3	1	1	0					568	*
106		40	16		-	10	91.5		No		0	2	10	8	26	24	12	9	5	2	1	0	0				911	*
105		40	17		-	9	91.2		No		0	2	7	10	23	24	16	10	5	2	1	0	0				1,370	*
104		40	18		-	8	88.2		No			1	5	9	22	24	17	11	6	3	2	1	0	0	0		2,092	*
103		39	18		-	9	86.8		No		0	0	4	9	22	23	17	12	7	4	1	1	0	0	0		2,845	*
102		39	19		-	8	83.5		No			0	3	8	20	21	19	13	8	4	2	1	0	0	0		4,357	*
101		38	19		-	9	81.6		No			0	2	8	18	21	18	14	9	5	3	1	1	0	0		5,949	*
100		38	20		-	8	77.4		No		0	0	1	7	15	20	19	15	10	6	3	2	1	0	0		8,349	*
99		37	20		-	9	74.4		No			0	1	5	14	19	19	16	11	7	4	2	1	0	0	0	11,401	*
98		37	21		-	8	70.8		No			0	0	5	13	18	18	17	12	8	5	3	1	1	0	0	15,129	*
97		36	21		-	9	66.4		No			0	0	4	11	16	18	17	13	9	6	3	1	1	0	0	19,396	*
96		36	22		-	8	62.4		No			0	0	4	10	15	17	17	14	10	6	4	2	1	0	0	24,968	*
95		35	22		-	9	58.7		No			0	0	3	8	14	17	17	14	11	7	5	2	1	1	0	31,368	*
94		35	23		-	8	53.5		No				0	3	7	12	16	16	15	12	8	5	3	2	1	0	38,767	*
93		34	23		-	9	49.4		No			0	0	2	6	11	14	16	16	13	9	6	4	2	1	0	46,241	*
92		33	23		-	10	45.0		No				0	2	5	9	13	16	16	14	10	7	4	3	1	0	55,076	*
91		33	24		-	9	40.5		No				0	1	4	8	12	15	16	14	11	8	5	3	2	0	64,355	*
90		33	25		-	8	36.5		No			0	0	1	3	7	11	14	15	14	12	9	6	4	2	1	73,514	*
89		32	25		-	9	32.4		No				0	1	2	6	10	13	15	15	13	10	7	5	3	1	82,876	*
88		32	26		-	8	28.4		No				0	1	2	5	8	12	15	15	13	11	8	5	3	1	91,563	*
87		31	26		-	9	24.7		No				0	0	2	4	7	11	14	15	14	12	9	6	4	2	98,661	*
86		31	27		-	8	21.5		No				0	0	1	3	6	10	13	14	14	13	10	8	5	2	104,714	*
85		30	27		-	9	18.6		No				0	0	1	3	5	9	12	14	14	13	11	9	6	3	109,644	*
84		29	27		-	10	15.8		No				0	0	1	2	5	8	11	13	14	14	12	10	7	3	112,384	*
83		29	28		-	9	13.2		No				0	0	1	2	4	7	10	13	14	14	13	11	8	4	112,777	*
82		28	28		-	10	11.0		No				0	0	0	1	3	6	9	12	13	14	14	12	9	5	111,257	*
81		28	29		-	9	9.2		No				0	0	0	1	3	5	8	11	13	14	14	13	11	6	108,550	*
80		28	30		-	8	7.4		No					0	0	1	2	4	7	10	12	14	15	14	12	8	103,967	*
79		27	30		-	9	6.0		No				0	0	0	1	2	4	6	9	12	14	15	15	14	9	97,334	*
78		27	31		-	8	4.9		No					0	0	0	1	3	5	8	11	13	15	16	15	11	90,054	*
77		26	31		-	9	3.9		No					0	0	0	1	2	4	7	10	13	15	17	17	13	80,875	*
76		26	32		-	8	3.0		No					0	0	0	1	2	4	6	9	12	15	17	18	16	72,145	*
75		25	32		-	9	2.4		No				0	0	0	0	1	2	3	5	8	11	15	18	19	18	62,774	*
74		25	33		-	8	1.8		No					0	0	0	0	1	3	4	7	10	14	18	21	21	54,001	*
73		24	33		-	9	1.4		No					0	0	0	0	1	2	4	6	9	14	18	22	24	45,651	*
72		24	34		-	8	1.1		No					0	0	0	0	1	2	3	5	9	13	18	23	27	37,125	*
71		23	34		-	9	0.8		No					0	0	0	0	1	1	3	5	8	11	17	24	30	30,544	*
70		23	35		-	8	0.6		No					0	0	0	0	0	1	2	4	7	11	17	24	33	24,217	*
69		22	35		-	9	0.5		No					0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	6	10	16	25	37	18,800	*
68		22	36		-	8	0.3		No							0	0	0	1	1	3	5	9	15	26	40	14,662	*
67		21	36		-	9	0.3		No							0	0	0	0	1	2	4	8	14	25	45	10,925	*
66		21	37		-	8	0.1		No							0	0	0	0	1	2	4	7	13	26	48	8,081	*
65		20	37		-	9	0.1		No					0			0	0	0	1	1	3	6	12	24	52	5,925	*
64		20	38		-	8	0.0		No									0	0	0	1	3	6	11	23	56	4,295	*
63		19	38		-	9	0.1		No									0	0	0	1	2	5	9	22	60	2,977	*
62		19	39		-	8	0.0		No									0	0	1	0	1	4	9	21	63	2,011	*
61		18	39		-	9	Out		No										0	0	1	1	4	7	21	66	1,361	*
60		18	40		-	8	Out		No											0	1	1	2	6	18	73	833	*
59		17	40		-	9	0.2		No									0		0	0	1	2	5	18	74	596	*
58		17	41		-	8	Out		No													1	3	6	14	77	374	*
57		16	41		-	9	Out		No											0	0	1	1	3	16	77	242	*
56		16	42		-	8	Out		No													2		2	15	81	135	*
55		16	43		-	7	Out		No															4	8	88	74	*
54		15	43		-	8	Out		No																5	95	41	*
53		14	43		-	9	Out		No												4				8	88	25	*
52		13	43		-	10	Out		No																8	92	13	*
51		14	45		-	7	Out		No																	100	4	*
50		14	46		-	6	Out		No																29	71	7	*
16	-49						Out		No																	100	179	*

Total:							19.6	%	0.0	%	0	0	0	1	2	4	6	8	9	10	11	11	11	10	10	8	2,110,440

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Winnipeg 5 Detroit 4	+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
San Jose vs Buffalo	+0.7+0.1+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.5
Montreal vs St. Louis	+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.0
Washington vs NY Islanders	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

148		66	0		-	0	100
118		49	13		-	4	50		50
117		48	13		-	5			100
116		47	13		-	6	25		25	25	25
115		47	14		-	5		29	43	29
114		45	13		-	8		13	20	20	40	7
113		44	13		-	9		3	32	19	16	16	13
112		44	14		-	8	2	4	15	19	26	21	11	2
111		44	15		-	7			10	19	21	23	19	6	2
110		42	14		-	10			2	16	23	29	22	8	1
109		42	15		-	9			1	6	17	20	26	20	8	1
108		42	16		-	8			0	3	9	19	29	22	14	2	1	1
107		41	16		-	9				1	3	14	25	24	22	8	2	0
106		40	16		-	10				0	2	6	16	26	26	17	6	1	0
105		40	17		-	9				0	0	4	10	22	28	24	10	2	0
104		40	18		-	8				0	0	1	4	15	30	27	18	5	0
103		39	18		-	9					0	1	2	8	22	31	26	9	1	0
102		39	19		-	8						0	1	4	15	29	31	16	3	0
101		38	19		-	9					0	0	0	2	9	23	35	24	6	1	0
100		38	20		-	8					0		0	1	4	17	34	31	12	1	0	0
99		37	20		-	9						0	0	0	2	10	29	37	19	3	0	0
98		37	21		-	8								0	1	6	22	39	26	6	1	0
97		36	21		-	9								0	0	3	15	36	33	12	2	0	0
96		36	22		-	8									0	1	9	30	37	18	4	0	0	0
95		35	22		-	9									0	0	4	22	37	26	8	1	0	0
94		35	23		-	8									0	0	2	15	34	31	14	3	0	0
93		34	23		-	9										0	1	9	28	34	20	7	1	0	0
92		33	23		-	10										0	0	5	20	33	27	12	3	0	0	0
91		33	24		-	9										0	0	2	12	28	31	19	7	1	0	0	0
90		33	25		-	8											0	1	7	20	31	25	12	3	1	0	0
89		32	25		-	9											0	0	3	13	26	29	19	8	2	0	0	0	0
88		32	26		-	8											0	0	1	7	18	28	25	14	5	1	0	0
87		31	26		-	9												0	0	3	11	23	27	21	10	3	1	0	0
86		31	27		-	8												0	0	1	6	15	25	26	17	7	2	0	0	0
85		30	27		-	9													0	0	2	9	19	26	23	14	5	1	0	0	0
84		29	27		-	10													0	0	1	4	12	21	26	21	11	4	1	0	0
83		29	28		-	9													0	0	0	1	6	14	24	25	18	9	3	1	0	0	0
82		28	28		-	10														0	0	0	2	7	17	25	24	16	7	2	0	0	0
81		28	29		-	9															0	0	1	3	9	19	26	23	13	5	1	0	0	0
80		28	30		-	8															0	0	0	1	4	12	21	26	20	11	4	1	0	0
79		27	30		-	9																	0	0	1	6	14	23	26	18	8	2	0	0
78		27	31		-	8																	0	0	0	2	8	17	25	24	15	6	1	0	0
77		26	31		-	9																	0	0	0	1	3	10	21	27	23	12	4	1	0
76		26	32		-	8																		0	0	0	1	5	13	24	27	19	8	2	0
75		25	32		-	9																			0	0	0	2	7	18	27	26	14	4	1	0
74		25	33		-	8																				0	0	1	3	11	23	30	22	9	1	0
73		24	33		-	9																					0	0	1	6	16	29	29	15	3	0
72		24	34		-	8																					0	0	0	3	10	24	33	23	7	0
71		23	34		-	9																						0	0	1	5	18	32	31	13	1
70		23	35		-	8																							0	0	3	11	28	36	20	3
69		22	35		-	9																								0	1	6	22	37	28	5
68		22	36		-	8																								0	0	3	16	37	35	8
67		21	36		-	9																									0	1	10	33	41	13
66		21	37		-	8																									0	1	7	28	46	19
65		20	37		-	9																										0	4	21	49	26
64		20	38		-	8																										0	2	16	50	33
63		19	38		-	9																										0	1	11	47	41
62		19	39		-	8																											0	7	42	51
61		18	39		-	9																											0	5	41	54
60		18	40		-	8																												3	33	64
59		17	40		-	9																												1	32	67
58		17	41		-	8																												2	26	72
57		16	41		-	9																												1	21	77
56		16	42		-	8																												1	13	86
55		16	43		-	7																													11	89
54		15	43		-	8																													10	90
53		14	43		-	9																													4	96
52		13	43		-	10																													8	92
16	-51																																			100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	4	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	5	5	4	3	2	1