Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances 2013-2014

Did not play, playoff odds down 1.2 to 11.8%

14 points 7 8-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs
NY Rangers 4 Anaheim 1	-0.2

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs
Montreal vs St. Louis	-0.3+0.0-0.2-0.1+0.0+0.2
Boston vs Dallas	-0.2-0.1+0.0+0.1+0.2+0.2
San Jose vs Buffalo	+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1
Washington vs NY Islanders	-0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

148		67	0		-	0	In		Yes		100																174
115		48	14		-	5	In		No			50				50											2	*
114		47	14		-	6	In		50.0	%	100																2	*
113		46	14		-	7	In		No				50		50												2
112		44	13		-	10	In		No						80		20										5	*
111		46	16		-	5	In		No			20		10	20	50											10	*
110		43	14		-	10	In		No		6	28	17	6	22	17	6										18	*
109		42	14		-	11	95.5	%	No		5	9		9	36	23	5	9		5							22	*
108		44	17		-	6	95.6		No			7	9	4	31	29	11	4	2	2							45	*
107		42	16		-	9	94.7		No			7	9	5	37	18	13	5	3	3							76	*
106		41	16		-	10	94.6		No			2	9	14	26	22	16	6	2	1	1	1	1				129	*
105		41	17		-	9	91.0		No			4	6	10	26	24	12	9	4	3	1	1		0			233	*
104		41	18		-	8	88.8		No			1	6	10	23	22	17	9	7	2	1	1	1				367	*
103		40	18		-	9	89.0		No			0	3	8	24	24	17	13	7	2	2	0	0				645	*
102		39	18		-	10	83.2		No			0	3	9	20	21	17	13	9	5	1	1	1				957	*
101		39	19		-	9	81.3		No			0	2	8	19	21	18	15	9	6	2	1	0	0	0		1,468	*
100		38	19		-	10	77.7		No			0	2	7	17	19	19	14	11	6	3	2	1	0		0	2,064	*
99		38	20		-	9	75.9		No			0	1	6	14	20	19	16	11	6	3	2	1	0	0	0	2,961	*
98		37	20		-	10	72.2		No			0	0	6	13	19	18	16	11	8	4	3	1	0	0	0	4,512	*
97		37	21		-	9	67.0		No				0	4	11	17	18	16	12	10	6	4	1	1	0	0	6,073	*
96		36	21		-	10	63.3		No				0	4	10	16	18	16	14	9	7	4	2	1	0	0	8,445	*
95		36	22		-	9	59.4		No				0	3	9	14	17	16	14	10	7	5	3	1	1	0	11,363	*
94		35	22		-	10	55.2		No			0	0	3	7	12	16	17	15	11	8	5	3	2	1	0	15,143	*
93		35	23		-	9	50.6		No			0	0	2	6	12	15	16	15	12	9	6	4	2	1	0	19,736	*
92		34	23		-	10	45.8		No			0	0	2	5	10	13	15	15	13	10	7	5	2	1	0	25,143	*
91		34	24		-	9	41.2		No			0	0	1	4	8	12	15	15	14	11	8	5	3	2	0	31,202	*
90		33	24		-	10	37.3		No				0	1	4	7	11	14	15	14	12	9	6	4	2	1	38,488	*
89		33	25		-	9	33.1		No			0	0	1	3	6	10	13	15	14	12	10	7	5	3	1	46,459	*
88		32	25		-	10	29.0		No				0	1	2	5	9	12	14	14	13	11	8	5	3	1	54,589	*
87		32	26		-	9	25.6		No				0	1	2	4	8	11	13	14	13	12	9	7	4	2	64,424	*
86		31	26		-	10	22.0		No			0	0	0	1	4	6	10	13	14	14	12	10	8	5	2	72,542	*
85		31	27		-	9	19.0		No			0	0	0	1	3	6	9	12	13	14	13	11	9	6	3	81,636	*
84		30	27		-	10	16.1		No				0	0	1	2	5	8	11	13	14	13	12	10	7	3	90,328	*
83		30	28		-	9	13.5		No				0	0	1	2	4	7	10	12	14	14	13	11	8	4	97,723	*
82		29	28		-	10	11.4		No				0	0	0	1	3	6	9	12	13	14	14	12	9	5	104,008	*
81		29	29		-	9	9.4		No				0	0	0	1	3	5	8	11	13	14	14	13	11	7	108,469	*
80		28	29		-	10	7.6		No				0	0	0	1	2	4	7	10	12	14	15	14	12	8	112,254	*
79		28	30		-	9	6.1		No					0	0	1	2	3	6	9	11	14	15	15	14	10	112,891	*
78		27	30		-	10	5.1		No				0	0	0	1	1	3	5	8	11	13	15	16	15	11	111,289	*
77		27	31		-	9	4.0		No					0	0	0	1	2	4	7	10	13	15	17	17	14	108,470	*
76		26	31		-	10	3.2		No				0	0	0	0	1	2	4	6	9	12	15	17	18	16	104,008	*
75		26	32		-	9	2.5		No					0	0	0	1	2	3	5	8	11	14	18	20	18	97,151	*
74		25	32		-	10	2.0		No					0	0	0	1	1	3	4	7	10	14	18	21	21	89,606	*
73		25	33		-	9	1.4		No					0	0	0	0	1	2	4	6	10	13	18	22	24	81,676	*
72		24	33		-	10	1.1		No					0	0	0	0	1	2	3	5	8	12	17	23	27	72,709	*
71		24	34		-	9	0.9		No					0	0	0	0	1	1	3	5	8	12	17	24	30	63,853	*
70		23	34		-	10	0.6		No					0	0	0	0	0	1	2	4	7	11	16	25	34	54,832	*
69		23	35		-	9	0.5		No					0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	6	10	15	25	38	45,868	*
68		22	35		-	10	0.4		No					0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	5	9	15	25	41	37,816	*
67		22	36		-	9	0.2		No							0	0	0	0	1	2	4	8	14	25	45	31,008	*
66		21	36		-	10	0.2		No					0		0	0	0	0	1	2	3	7	13	25	49	24,783	*
65		21	37		-	9	0.1		No							0	0	0	0	1	1	3	6	12	24	52	19,473	*
64		20	37		-	10	0.1		No							0	0	0	0	0	1	3	5	10	23	56	14,816	*
63		20	38		-	9	0.0		No						0			0	0	0	1	2	4	10	23	60	11,264	*
62		20	39		-	8	0.1		No						0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	4	8	22	63	8,119	*
61		19	39		-	9	0.1		No						0		0	0	0	0	0	1	3	7	21	66	6,005	*
60		18	39		-	10	0.0		No									0	0	0	0	1	3	7	19	70	4,206	*
59		18	40		-	9	0.0		No									0	0	0	0	1	2	6	17	73	2,933	*
58		18	41		-	8	0.0		No									0	0	0	0	1	1	5	17	75	2,093	*
57		17	41		-	9	0.1		No									0	0	0	0	1	1	4	15	79	1,327	*
56		17	42		-	8	Out		No											0	0	0	1	3	14	82	946	*
55		16	42		-	9	Out		No												0		1	3	12	84	538	*
54		16	43		-	8	Out		No													0	0	4	9	87	327	*
53		15	43		-	9	Out		No													0	0	2	13	84	209	*
52		15	44		-	8	Out		No													1		1	9	89	137	*
51		15	45		-	7	Out		No													1		1	8	90	90	*
50		14	45		-	8	Out		No																10	90	50	*
49		14	46		-	7	Out		No																	100	30	*
48		13	46		-	8	Out		No																7	93	15	*
14	-47						Out		No																	100	185	*

Total:							11.8	%	0.0	%	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	5	7	8	10	11	12	13	14	15	2,110,440

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Winnipeg 5 Detroit 4	+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Carolina vs Philadelphia	+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

148		67	0		-	0	100
115		48	14		-	5				100
114		47	14		-	6	50	50
113		46	14		-	7				50	50
112		44	13		-	10				40	40	20
111		46	16		-	5				10	20	40		30
110		43	14		-	10				11	22	28	28	6	6
109		42	14		-	11			5	14	14	18	18	18	5	5	5
108		44	17		-	6				2	11	13	27	24	13	7	2
107		42	16		-	9					1	9	30	28	22	4	5
106		41	16		-	10					1	5	20	30	25	16	3
105		41	17		-	9				0	1	2	13	26	29	17	9	2
104		41	18		-	8					0	2	6	18	32	29	10	2	1
103		40	18		-	9						0	3	10	23	33	21	10	1
102		39	18		-	10							1	5	15	29	31	15	4	0
101		39	19		-	9					0	0	0	2	8	25	35	23	6	1
100		38	19		-	10							0	1	5	19	34	30	10	2	0
99		38	20		-	9							0	0	2	12	28	37	16	3	0
98		37	20		-	10								0	1	6	23	39	24	7	0	0
97		37	21		-	9								0	0	3	15	36	32	11	2	0
96		36	21		-	10									0	1	10	31	36	17	4	0	0
95		36	22		-	9									0	1	5	23	37	25	8	2	0
94		35	22		-	10										0	2	16	34	31	14	3	0	0
93		35	23		-	9										0	1	9	27	34	20	7	1	0	0
92		34	23		-	10										0	0	5	20	33	26	12	3	0	0	0
91		34	24		-	9											0	2	13	27	31	19	7	1	0	0	0
90		33	24		-	10											0	1	7	20	30	25	13	4	1	0	0
89		33	25		-	9												0	3	13	25	29	19	8	2	0	0	0
88		32	25		-	10												0	1	7	18	28	25	15	5	1	0	0	0
87		32	26		-	9												0	0	3	11	22	27	21	11	4	1	0	0	0
86		31	26		-	10												0	0	1	5	15	25	26	18	8	2	0	0	0
85		31	27		-	9												0	0	0	2	8	18	26	24	15	6	2	0	0	0
84		30	27		-	10												0	0	0	1	3	11	20	26	22	12	4	1	0	0
83		30	28		-	9													0	0	0	1	5	13	23	25	19	10	3	1	0	0
82		29	28		-	10															0	0	2	7	16	24	25	17	8	2	0	0	0
81		29	29		-	9															0	0	0	3	9	18	25	23	14	6	1	0	0	0
80		28	29		-	10															0	0	0	1	4	11	20	26	22	12	4	1	0	0
79		28	30		-	9																	0	0	1	5	13	23	26	19	9	3	0	0
78		27	30		-	10																	0	0	0	2	7	16	25	25	16	7	2	0	0
77		27	31		-	9																		0	0	1	3	9	19	27	24	13	4	1	0
76		26	31		-	10																		0	0	0	1	4	13	23	28	20	9	2	0	0
75		26	32		-	9																			0	0	0	2	7	17	27	27	15	5	1	0
74		25	32		-	10																				0	0	1	3	10	22	30	23	9	2	0
73		25	33		-	9																					0	0	1	5	16	29	30	16	4	0
72		24	33		-	10																					0	0	0	2	9	24	33	24	7	1
71		24	34		-	9																						0	0	1	5	17	32	31	12	1
70		23	34		-	10																							0	0	2	11	28	37	19	3
69		23	35		-	9																							0	0	1	6	22	39	28	5
68		22	35		-	10																								0	0	3	16	38	35	8
67		22	36		-	9																									0	2	11	33	42	13
66		21	36		-	10																									0	1	6	28	47	18
65		21	37		-	9																									0	0	3	23	49	24
64		20	37		-	10																										0	2	17	49	32
63		20	38		-	9																										0	1	12	47	40
62		20	39		-	8																										0	0	8	45	47
61		19	39		-	9																											0	6	40	54
60		18	39		-	10																											0	3	35	62
59		18	40		-	9																												2	28	70
58		18	41		-	8																												2	25	73
57		17	41		-	9																												1	20	79
56		17	42		-	8																												0	19	81
55		16	42		-	9																													11	89
54		16	43		-	8																												0	9	91
53		15	43		-	9																													9	91
52		15	44		-	8																													5	95
51		15	45		-	7																													4	96
14	-50																																			100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	3	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	7	8	8	8	7	7	5	2