Pittsburgh Penguins Playoff Chances 2013-2014

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.5 to 96.2%

21 points 10 4-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy
NY Rangers 4 Anaheim 1	-0.1		+0.6
Winnipeg 5 Detroit 4			+0.3

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy
Montreal vs St. Louis	-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.1-0.1+0.1		+0.3-0.0+0.0-0.1-0.2-0.1
San Jose vs Buffalo	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs Calgary			-0.0-0.3-0.2-0.1-0.1+0.2
Columbus vs Ottawa			+0.3-0.1+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2
Carolina vs Philadelphia			+0.3+0.2+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

136	-155						In		Yes		100																460	*
135		55	8		-	4	In		Yes		99				1												244	*
134		54	8		-	5	In		99.8	%	99				1												421	*
133		54	9		-	4	In		99.6		98	0			1	0											737	*
132		53	9		-	5	In		99.7		97				2	0	0	0									1,245	*
131		53	10		-	4	In		99.3		97	0			2	0											1,916	*
130		52	10		-	5	In		98.4		98	0			2	0	0	0									2,988	*
129		52	11		-	4	In		97.5		96	1			3	0	0										4,549	*
128		51	11		-	5	In		95.6		95	1	0		3	0	0	0									6,687	*
127		50	11		-	6	100.0	%	93.7		94	2			4	1	0	0	0								9,547	*
126		50	12		-	5	100.0		90.9		92	3	0		4	1	0	0	0								13,191	*
125		49	12		-	6	100.0		86.8		90	5	0		5	1	0	0	0		0	0					17,799	*
124		49	13		-	5	100.0		81.2		87	6	0		5	1	0	0	0	0							23,788	*
123		48	13		-	6	100.0		73.6		84	9	0		6	1	0	0	0	0	0						30,414	*
122		48	14		-	5	100.0		65.4		79	12	0	0	6	2	0	0	0	0	0		0				38,121	*
121		47	14		-	6	99.9		55.5		74	16	1	0	7	2	1	0	0	0	0						47,323	*
120		47	15		-	5	99.9		45.0		68	20	2	0	7	2	1	0	0	0	0	0					56,543	*
119		46	15		-	6	99.9		34.1		61	25	3	0	8	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			66,860	*
118		46	16		-	5	99.9		24.4		53	30	4	0	8	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			77,638	*
117		45	16		-	6	99.8		16.1		45	33	7	0	9	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			86,874	*
116		45	17		-	5	99.8		9.7		36	37	10	1	9	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0			96,071	*
115		44	17		-	6	99.7		5.2		29	38	14	1	10	5	2	1	0	0	0	0	0				103,838	*
114		44	18		-	5	99.5		2.4		22	38	18	2	10	5	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0			109,946	*
113		43	18		-	6	99.4		1.0		16	36	23	4	11	6	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0			115,574	*
112		43	19		-	5	99.1		0.4		11	33	26	6	11	7	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0			116,770	*
111		42	19		-	6	98.8		0.1		7	28	30	9	11	7	5	2	1	0	0	0	0	0			117,143	*
110		41	19		-	7	98.4		0.0		5	23	32	12	11	8	6	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0		114,548	*
109		41	20		-	6	97.9		0.0		3	18	32	16	11	9	7	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0		110,897	*
108		40	20		-	7	97.3		0.0		2	13	31	20	11	9	7	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	104,854	*
107		40	21		-	6	96.5		No		1	10	29	25	11	10	8	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0		96,803	*
106		39	21		-	7	95.4		No		1	6	26	28	10	10	9	5	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	87,975	*
105		39	22		-	6	94.4		No		0	4	22	32	10	11	10	6	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	78,853	*
104		38	22		-	7	92.9		No		0	3	18	34	9	11	11	7	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	69,616	*
103		38	23		-	6	91.3		No		0	2	14	36	9	11	12	7	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	59,944	*
102		37	23		-	7	89.4		No		0	1	11	36	8	11	13	9	5	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	50,369	*
101		37	24		-	6	87.6		No		0	1	9	36	8	11	14	10	6	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	41,884	*
100		36	24		-	7	84.7		No		0	0	6	35	7	11	14	11	7	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	34,614	*
99		36	25		-	6	81.8		No		0	0	5	34	7	10	15	11	8	5	3	2	1	0	0	0	27,771	*
98		35	25		-	7	79.2		No			0	4	33	6	10	14	12	8	5	3	2	1	0	0	0	22,022	*
97		35	26		-	6	75.7		No			0	2	30	5	10	15	13	9	6	4	3	1	1	0	0	16,872	*
96		34	26		-	7	71.5		No			0	2	28	5	9	15	13	11	7	5	3	2	1	0	0	12,957	*
95		34	27		-	6	68.1		No		0	0	1	26	4	9	14	14	11	8	6	4	2	1	1	0	9,649	*
94		33	27		-	7	64.5		No			0	1	23	4	8	15	14	12	9	7	4	3	1	0	0	7,304	*
93		33	28		-	6	59.5		No				1	21	3	7	13	14	12	10	7	5	3	1	1	0	5,072	*
92		32	28		-	7	56.0		No			0	1	19	3	6	13	14	14	10	7	6	4	2	1	0	3,718	*
91		32	29		-	6	50.3		No				0	17	2	6	11	13	13	12	9	6	4	2	2	1	2,588	*
90		31	29		-	7	47.5		No				0	15	2	5	12	14	13	11	11	7	5	3	2	1	1,794	*
89		31	30		-	6	44.0		No			0	0	14	2	5	12	11	15	12	11	7	5	4	2	1	1,235	*
88		30	30		-	7	35.8		No				0	9	2	4	9	11	15	14	10	7	8	5	3	1	835	*
87		30	31		-	6	35.2		No					12	1	4	8	10	12	12	12	10	8	5	4	1	545	*
86		29	31		-	7	30.2		No					8	1	3	8	10	13	12	11	11	8	9	5	2	311	*
85		29	32		-	6	27.2		No					6	1	4	5	9	13	13	13	7	12	7	6	1	202	*
84		28	32		-	7	23.1		No					7	2		5	9	12	15	11	9	12	9	7	1	130	*
83		28	33		-	6	21.3		No					4		5	3	10	14	8	23	11	5	10	6	3	80	*
82		28	34		-	5	18.3		No					5			7	7	5	12	18	15	8	7	12	5	60	*
81		27	34		-	6	20.8		No					8			8	4	4	8	13	17	13	8	17		24	*
80		26	34		-	7	21.4		No					7			4	11	7	7	18	11	14	7	14		28	*
79		27	36		-	4	9.1		No									9		18	9	9	27	9	9	9	11	*
78		24	34		-	9	20.0		No								20		10		10			20	40		10	*
76		24	36		-	7	Out		No															50	25	25	4	*
21		0	67		-	0	Out		No																	100	174

Total:							96.2	%	11.8	%	22	19	17	13	9	7	6	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	2,110,440

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Winnipeg 5 Detroit 4	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Carolina vs Philadelphia	-0.1-0.0-0.0*+0.0+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

135	-155						100
134		54	8		-	5	100	0
133		54	9		-	4	100	0
132		53	9		-	5	100	0
131		53	10		-	4	99	1
130		52	10		-	5	98	2
129		52	11		-	4	98	2
128		51	11		-	5	96	4	0
127		50	11		-	6	94	6	0
126		50	12		-	5	91	9	0
125		49	12		-	6	87	13	1	0
124		49	13		-	5	81	17	1	0	0
123		48	13		-	6	74	24	3	0	0
122		48	14		-	5	65	29	5	0	0	0
121		47	14		-	6	56	35	8	1	0	0
120		47	15		-	5	45	40	13	2	0	0
119		46	15		-	6	34	42	19	4	1	0	0
118		46	16		-	5	24	40	25	8	1	0	0	0
117		45	16		-	6	16	36	31	13	3	0	0	0
116		45	17		-	5	10	28	34	20	7	1	0	0
115		44	17		-	6	5	21	32	26	12	3	1	0	0
114		44	18		-	5	2	13	27	30	18	7	2	0	0		0
113		43	18		-	6	1	7	20	30	25	12	4	1	0	0
112		43	19		-	5	0	4	13	25	28	19	8	2	0	0	0
111		42	19		-	6	0	1	7	19	28	25	14	5	1	0	0
110		41	19		-	7	0	1	3	12	23	28	21	9	2	0	0
109		41	20		-	6	0	0	1	6	17	27	27	15	5	1	0	0
108		40	20		-	7	0	0	0	3	10	22	29	23	11	3	0	0
107		40	21		-	6		0	0	1	5	15	26	28	17	6	1	0
106		39	21		-	7			0	0	2	9	21	29	25	11	2	0	0
105		39	22		-	6			0	0	1	5	14	27	30	18	5	0	0
104		38	22		-	7				0	0	2	8	21	32	26	10	1	0	0
103		38	23		-	6				0	0	1	4	14	29	32	17	3	0	0
102		37	23		-	7				0	0	0	2	8	23	35	25	6	1	0	0
101		37	24		-	6				0	0	0	1	4	17	34	32	11	1	0
100		36	24		-	7						0	0	2	10	29	38	18	3	0	0
99		36	25		-	6						0	0	1	6	22	39	26	6	1	0	0
98		35	25		-	7							0	0	3	14	37	32	11	2	0	0
97		35	26		-	6								0	1	9	31	37	17	4	0	0
96		34	26		-	7								0	0	4	23	37	25	8	1	0		0
95		34	27		-	6									0	2	16	34	30	14	3	0	0
94		33	27		-	7									0	1	9	28	33	22	6	1	0	0
93		33	28		-	6										0	4	20	33	26	12	3	0	0
92		32	28		-	7									0	0	2	12	28	30	19	7	2	0
91		32	29		-	6										0	1	6	19	30	26	13	5	1	0
90		31	29		-	7											1	3	11	27	29	18	9	2	0	0
89		31	30		-	6												1	6	17	28	25	15	7	2	0
88		30	30		-	7												0	4	10	22	28	20	10	5	1	0
87		30	31		-	6													0	4	14	27	26	17	8	3	1	0
86		29	31		-	7														3	10	12	23	28	15	7	1		0
85		29	32		-	6														1	1	9	19	26	28	9	4	1
84		28	32		-	7																2	13	23	20	22	15	3	2
83		28	33		-	6																4	1	15	21	18	25	13	4
82		28	34		-	5																	2	10	22	17	25	13	10	2
81		27	34		-	6																			8	17	21	38	17
80		26	34		-	7																			7	18	21	18	18	11	7
79		26	35		-	6																						18	55	18		9
78		24	34		-	9																						10	60	10	20
76		24	36		-	7																									50	50
21		0	67		-	0																														100

Total:							12	11	11	10	10	9	9	8	7	6	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0				0