Washington Capitals Playoff Chances 2013-2014

Did not play, playoff odds down 1.7 to 18.9%

15 points 7 6-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
NY Rangers 4 Anaheim 1	-0.4

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Washington vs NY Islanders	+2.5+0.4+0.4-1.2-1.0-2.6		+0.0NoNoNoNoNo		+0.3+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.3
Boston vs Dallas	-0.4+0.1+0.0-0.0+0.2+0.3
San Jose vs Buffalo	+0.3+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.3
Montreal vs St. Louis	-0.3-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.2
Florida vs Edmonton	-0.2-0.0+0.2-0.2-0.0+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

119	-151						In		98.9	%	100																177	*
118		48	13		-	7	In		33.3		33				33		33										3	*
117		47	13		-	8	In		25.0		25	25			50												4	*
116		44	11		-	13	In		No		17		17		50	17											6	*
115		45	13		-	10	In		5.9		12	18	6		24	35	6										17	*
114		45	14		-	9	In		No		20	16	16	4	28	4	12										25	*
113		45	15		-	8	In		No		8	32	19		14	16	11										37	*
112		44	15		-	9	98.9	%	No		8	19	13		38	11	4	4	1								89	*
111		44	16		-	8	95.7		No		4	13	9	5	32	15	12	6	3	1			1				140	*
110		43	16		-	9	97.0		No		4	11	11	5	26	21	11	9	1	1	0						268	*
109		43	17		-	8	96.0		No		2	6	11	3	35	21	12	7	2	1	0					0	396	*
108		42	17		-	9	94.0		No		1	7	8	7	26	23	14	7	5	1	0	0					618	*
107		42	18		-	8	91.9		No		0	4	8	7	25	20	15	11	5	2	1	0	0				903	*
106		41	18		-	9	90.6		No		0	3	8	8	23	21	17	11	6	2	1	0	0		0		1,378	*
105		41	19		-	8	88.1		No		0	2	6	8	22	21	17	12	6	4	1	1	0				2,102	*
104		40	19		-	9	84.8		No		0	1	5	7	20	21	17	14	7	4	2	1	0	0	0		3,003	*
103		40	20		-	8	82.6		No		0	1	4	8	19	21	17	14	8	5	2	1	0	0	0		4,379	*
102		39	20		-	9	80.5		No		0	0	3	7	18	20	18	15	9	5	2	2	1	0	0	0	6,013	*
101		38	20		-	10	77.8		No			0	2	6	16	20	19	15	10	6	3	2	1	0	0	0	8,523	*
100		38	21		-	9	74.0		No			0	1	6	14	18	18	17	11	7	4	2	1	1	0	0	11,426	*
99		37	21		-	10	69.4		No			0	1	5	12	17	18	17	13	8	5	3	1	1	0	0	14,817	*
98		37	22		-	9	65.2		No			0	1	4	11	15	17	17	13	9	6	4	2	1	0	0	19,338	*
97		36	22		-	10	61.5		No			0	0	4	9	14	17	17	14	10	6	4	2	1	0	0	24,675	*
96		36	23		-	9	57.2		No			0	0	3	8	13	16	18	15	11	7	5	3	1	1	0	31,046	*
95		35	23		-	10	52.8		No			0	0	2	7	11	15	17	15	12	8	6	3	2	1	0	38,036	*
94		35	24		-	9	48.4		No			0	0	2	6	10	14	17	16	13	9	6	4	2	1	0	45,946	*
93		34	24		-	10	44.2		No			0	0	2	5	9	13	16	16	13	10	7	5	3	1	0	53,942	*
92		34	25		-	9	39.5		No			0	0	1	4	8	12	15	16	13	11	8	6	4	2	1	63,267	*
91		33	25		-	10	35.5		No			0	0	1	3	7	10	14	15	14	12	9	7	4	2	1	72,217	*
90		33	26		-	9	31.5		No				0	1	2	6	9	13	15	15	13	10	8	5	3	1	80,343	*
89		32	26		-	10	27.7		No			0	0	1	2	5	8	12	14	15	13	11	8	6	3	1	88,974	*
88		32	27		-	9	24.1		No			0	0	0	2	4	7	11	14	14	14	12	10	7	4	2	96,631	*
87		31	27		-	10	21.0		No			0	0	0	1	3	6	10	13	14	14	13	10	8	5	2	102,443	*
86		31	28		-	9	18.1		No				0	0	1	3	5	9	12	14	14	13	11	9	6	3	107,427	*
85		30	28		-	10	15.4		No				0	0	1	2	4	8	11	13	14	14	12	10	7	4	110,093	*
84		30	29		-	9	13.0		No				0	0	1	2	4	7	10	12	14	14	13	11	8	5	111,710	*
83		29	29		-	10	10.8		No			0	0	0	0	1	3	6	9	11	13	14	14	12	10	6	111,305	*
82		29	30		-	9	9.1		No				0	0	0	1	3	5	8	11	13	14	14	13	11	7	108,014	*
81		28	30		-	10	7.4		No				0	0	0	1	2	4	7	10	12	14	15	15	13	8	103,668	*
80		28	31		-	9	5.8		No				0	0	0	1	2	3	6	9	11	14	15	15	14	10	97,414	*
79		27	31		-	10	4.8		No				0	0	0	0	1	3	5	8	11	13	15	16	15	12	90,234	*
78		27	32		-	9	3.8		No				0	0	0	0	1	2	4	7	10	12	15	17	17	14	82,111	*
77		26	32		-	10	3.1		No					0	0	0	1	2	4	6	9	12	15	17	18	16	73,664	*
76		26	33		-	9	2.4		No					0	0	0	1	2	3	5	8	11	14	18	20	19	64,158	*
75		25	33		-	10	1.8		No					0	0	0	0	1	3	4	7	10	14	17	21	22	55,758	*
74		25	34		-	9	1.4		No					0	0	0	0	1	2	4	6	9	13	18	22	25	47,249	*
73		24	34		-	10	1.0		No					0	0	0	0	1	2	3	5	8	12	18	23	28	39,240	*
72		24	35		-	9	0.8		No					0	0	0	0	1	1	3	4	7	11	17	24	31	31,980	*
71		23	35		-	10	0.7		No					0	0	0	0	0	1	2	4	6	11	16	24	35	26,036	*
70		23	36		-	9	0.4		No					0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	6	9	16	24	38	20,551	*
69		22	36		-	10	0.3		No					0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	5	9	14	24	42	15,860	*
68		22	37		-	9	0.2		No					0		0	0	0	0	1	2	4	8	13	25	46	12,070	*
67		22	38		-	8	0.1		No							0	0	0	0	1	2	3	7	13	24	49	8,971	*
66		21	38		-	9	0.1		No					0			0	0	0	1	2	3	6	12	24	53	6,576	*
65		20	38		-	10	0.2		No					0		0	0	0	0	1	1	2	5	11	23	57	4,749	*
64		20	39		-	9	0.1		No									0	0	0	1	2	4	10	22	60	3,440	*
63		20	40		-	8	0.0		No								0		0	0	1	2	4	10	23	61	2,345	*
62		19	40		-	9	Out		No										0	0	1	1	3	6	20	68	1,548	*
61		19	41		-	8	Out		No											0	0	1	2	7	18	72	1,062	*
60		18	41		-	9	Out		No											0	0	0	2	6	18	73	679	*
59		18	42		-	8	Out		No												0	2	2	5	12	79	452	*
58		17	42		-	9	0.3		No									0			0	1	1	2	15	81	309	*
57		16	42		-	10	0.5		No									1					1	2	15	82	186	*
56		16	43		-	9	Out		No															3	9	89	79	*
55		16	44		-	8	Out		No															3	8	89	64	*
54		15	44		-	9	Out		No																3	97	39	*
53		14	44		-	10	Out		No															9	4	87	23	*
52		14	45		-	9	Out		No																11	89	9	*
50	-51						Out		No																	100	9	*
49		14	48		-	6	Out		No																50	50	2	*
15		0	68		-	0	Out		No																	100	174

Total:							18.9	%	0.0	%	0	0	0	1	2	3	5	8	9	10	11	11	11	11	10	9	2,110,440

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Winnipeg 5 Detroit 4	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Washington vs NY Islanders	-0.5-0.5-0.5+0.1+0.2+0.7
Carolina vs Philadelphia	+0.0+0.1*+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

151		68	0		-	0	100
120		47	10		-	11		100
119		49	13		-	6	50	50
118		48	13		-	7	33	33	33
117		47	13		-	8	25	50		25
116		44	11		-	13			67	33
115		45	13		-	10	6	18	24	47	6
114		45	14		-	9		8	24	36	24	4	4
113		45	15		-	8		5	16	38	24	11	5
112		44	15		-	9		4	16	31	21	17	9	1
111		44	16		-	8		1	7	20	26	24	13	6	1
110		43	16		-	9			3	10	25	26	23	9	3	0
109		43	17		-	8			1	4	15	27	24	20	8	2
108		42	17		-	9			0	2	11	19	26	23	12	5	1
107		42	18		-	8			0	2	5	12	24	27	18	9	3	0
106		41	18		-	9				0	2	7	17	26	27	15	5	1
105		41	19		-	8				0	0	3	10	22	30	22	10	2	0
104		40	19		-	9					0	1	6	16	27	28	16	5	1
103		40	20		-	8				0	0	0	2	10	21	32	24	8	1
102		39	20		-	9					0	0	1	5	15	30	31	15	3	0
101		38	20		-	10						0	0	2	9	24	34	24	6	0	0
100		38	21		-	9						0	0	1	5	18	34	31	11	1	0
99		37	21		-	10							0	0	2	10	29	37	18	3	0	0
98		37	22		-	9								0	1	6	23	39	25	7	1	0
97		36	22		-	10								0	0	3	15	37	32	11	2	0	0
96		36	23		-	9								0	0	1	9	31	37	18	4	0	0	0
95		35	23		-	10									0	0	5	23	37	25	8	1	0	0
94		35	24		-	9										0	2	15	34	31	13	3	0	0
93		34	24		-	10									0	0	1	9	28	34	20	6	1	0	0
92		34	25		-	9										0	0	5	20	33	26	12	3	0	0	0
91		33	25		-	10										0	0	2	13	28	30	18	6	1	0	0
90		33	26		-	9											0	1	7	21	30	25	12	3	1	0	0
89		32	26		-	10											0	0	3	13	26	29	19	7	2	0	0	0
88		32	27		-	9												0	1	7	19	28	25	14	5	1	0	0	0
87		31	27		-	10												0	0	3	12	23	28	20	10	3	1	0	0
86		31	28		-	9												0	0	1	6	16	25	26	17	7	2	0	0	0
85		30	28		-	10													0	0	2	9	19	26	23	13	5	1	0	0	0
84		30	29		-	9													0	0	1	4	12	22	26	20	11	3	1	0	0
83		29	29		-	10														0	0	1	6	15	24	25	18	8	3	1	0	0
82		29	30		-	9														0	0	0	2	8	17	25	24	15	6	2	0	0	0
81		28	30		-	10															0	0	1	3	10	20	25	22	13	5	1	0	0	0
80		28	31		-	9															0	0	0	1	4	12	21	26	20	10	3	1	0	0
79		27	31		-	10																0	0	0	2	6	15	24	25	18	8	2	0	0
78		27	32		-	9																	0	0	0	2	8	18	26	24	14	6	1	0	0
77		26	32		-	10																		0	0	1	3	11	21	27	22	11	3	1	0
76		26	33		-	9																			0	0	1	5	14	24	27	19	8	2	0	0
75		25	33		-	10																				0	0	2	7	18	27	26	14	4	0	0
74		25	34		-	9																				0	0	1	3	11	23	30	22	9	1	0
73		24	34		-	10																					0	0	1	6	17	28	29	15	3	0
72		24	35		-	9																					0	0	0	3	10	24	33	23	7	0
71		23	35		-	10																							0	1	6	18	32	30	12	1
70		23	36		-	9																							0	0	3	12	28	36	19	3
69		22	36		-	10																							0	0	1	7	22	38	27	5
68		22	37		-	9																								0	0	3	16	37	34	8
67		22	38		-	8																								0	0	2	10	33	42	13
66		21	38		-	9																										1	6	28	47	19
65		20	38		-	10																										0	4	22	50	24
64		20	39		-	9																											2	17	50	32
63		20	40		-	8																										0	1	11	46	41
62		19	40		-	9																											0	7	45	47
61		19	41		-	8																											0	5	40	55
60		18	41		-	9																											0	3	33	64
59		18	42		-	8																												1	30	69
58		17	42		-	9																												3	22	74
57		16	42		-	10																												1	24	75
56		16	43		-	9																													11	89
55		16	44		-	8																													6	94
54		15	44		-	9																													13	87
53		14	44		-	10																													9	91
52		14	45		-	9																													11	89
15	-51																																			100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	5	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	5	5	4	3	3	2	1