Ottawa Senators Playoff Chances 2013-2014

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.5 to 95.7%
20 points   10 4-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
NY Rangers 4 Anaheim 1 -0.1
+0.5
Winnipeg 5 Detroit 4 +0.3
+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
Columbus vs Ottawa-1.0*-0.1-0.3+0.2+0.3+0.8
-3.0-0.8-0.6+2.2+2.0+2.0
-0.2-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.2
Montreal vs St. Louis-0.2*-0.0*-0.1*+0.1*+0.0+0.1
+0.3*+0.0*+0.0*-0.0*-0.1-0.1
Boston vs Dallas-0.1*-0.0*-0.0*+0.1*+0.1+0.1
San Jose vs Buffalo+0.1*+0.0*+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs Calgary*-0.0-0.3-0.4*-0.2-0.3+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Ottawa finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy12345678910111213141516Count
138-156InYes100253*
137578-3InYes97372*
136568-4In99.4%100161*
135558-5In99.79910301*
134559-4In99.89910512*
133549-5In99.398020872*
132539-6In99.6980101,338*
1315310-5In98.79702002,125*
1305210-6In98.6970203,175*
1295211-5100.0%97.7971200004,922*
1285111-6100.096.4951300006,989*
1275112-5100.094.1942300009,920*
1265012-6100.090.9933400000013,670*
1255013-5100.086.7914041000017,974*
1244913-6100.081.288605100000024,020*
1234914-599.973.68490510000000030,640*
1224814-699.965.680120061000000038,735*
1214815-599.955.87516106200000000047,235*
1204715-699.945.0682120720000000056,716*
1194716-599.934.3622530721000000066,689*
1184616-699.824.7533050831000000076,380*
1174617-599.816.246347083100000000086,269*
1164517-699.79.7383810183100000000095,285*
1154518-599.65.23039141942100000000103,223*
1144418-699.42.52339193942100000000109,166*
1134318-799.21.11737244952100000000113,737*
1124319-699.00.31134287953110000000115,708*
1114219-798.60.18293210963210000000115,656*
1104220-698.20.05243414964210000000113,709*
1094120-797.50.031934181074311000000110,028*
1084121-696.90.02143423975321000000103,724*
1074021-796.10.0110312897542100000096,834*
1064022-695.0No07283398653110000088,085*
1053922-793.6No04243688753210000079,605*
1043923-692.1No03204088764211000069,559*
1033823-790.5No02164288875311000059,850*
1023824-688.3No01134478875321000050,703*
1013724-785.9No0194478986421100042,920*
1003725-683.4No0074468997521100035,035*
993625-780.4No0543679108532100028,735*
983626-677.6No0442579109642110022,549*
973526-773.6No0033947101110743210017,700*
963527-669.7No02374691111853210013,568*
953427-767.3No01363691111864211010,201*
943428-662.6No0133359121297432107,594*
933328-758.1No01293591211108632105,525*
923329-654.7No1282581111109742104,010*
913229-750.4No0242581113118753212,780*
903230-644.7No0212371114129864211,985*
893130-742.0No0222379121310974211,341*
883131-638.0No0191351014121266642866*
873031-731.9No1613391014101110752583*
863032-632.0No15126991111139663372*
852932-726.8No9114111112131111772254*
842933-623.6No61899111117111061148*
832833-721.3No14187714156121167108*
822834-611.5No2253101581620351161*
812734-710.0No835131310102081340*
802634-84.8No51055241410141421*
792736-58.3No8882517881712*
782535-8OutNo13131313508*
772536-7OutNo67333*
762537-650.0No50502
752437-7OutNo67333*
742640-2OutNo50502*
20068-0OutNo100174
Total:95.7%11.9%232018168543211000002,110,440

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday100.0*Lottery seed
Winnipeg 5 Detroit 4 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Columbus vs Ottawa+0.5+0.1+0.1-0.4-0.3-0.4
Carolina vs Philadelphia-0.1*-0.0*+0.0*+0.0+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
137-156100
136568-4991
135558-51000
134559-41000
133549-5991
132539-61000
1315310-5991
1305210-69910
1295211-5982
1285111-69640
1275112-59460
1265012-69190
1255013-5871300
1244913-6811810
1234914-5742420
1224814-666295000
1214815-556358100
1204715-6454013200
1194716-5344219410
1184616-625402681000
1174617-5163631143000
1164517-61029332071000
1154518-55213226123100
1144418-631327301872000
1134318-718202925124100
1124319-6041325281982000
1114219-7027192825145100
1104220-6014122328219200
1094120-70016172726166100
1084121-600031022282311300
1074021-70001515262817610
1064022-60002921302411200
1053922-7001514273018500
1043923-600282132261010
1033823-701415293216300
1023824-60029233525600
1013724-70151734321110
1003725-600210293817300
993625-7016224024610
983626-600315383211200
973526-700193237174000
963527-60052438248100
953427-70216343113300
943428-60110283319610
933328-70520322712310
923329-6002142730187200
913229-701620302512410
903230-603122430199300
893130-71616272417611
883131-60382327221241
873031-7004122325211041
863032-611713272317741
852932-702822242213710
842933-6125112428179211
832833-7121522271810411
822834-67162123151072
812734-73151020202553
802634-851952929105
792837-32582542
782636-625381325
772536-76733
762537-6100
752437-7333333
742640-2100
20068-0100
Total:1211101099887652100000000000000