Philadelphia Flyers Playoff Chances 2013-2014 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.2 to 61.2%

18 points 8 3-2

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Winnipeg 5 Detroit 4	+0.6				+0.1
NY Rangers 4 Anaheim 1	-0.5				-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Carolina vs Philadelphia	-4.5-0.6-1.0+1.2*+0.5+4.5		-1.6*-0.3-0.4+1.3+1.1+1.3		-0.5-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.1+0.5

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Philadelphia finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

123	-156						In		Yes		100																172	*
122		48	13		-	8	In		Yes		99						1										82	*
121		48	14		-	7	In		99.3	%	99				1												143	*
120		48	15		-	6	In		99.5		98				2		0										215	*
119		47	15		-	7	In		99.4		97	1			2	0											316	*
118		46	15		-	8	In		98.3		97	1			2												462	*
117		46	16		-	7	99.9	%	97.8		96	1			3	0	0		0								756	*
116		45	16		-	8	In		96.8		95	2			3	0	0										1,017	*
115		45	17		-	7	In		96.0		93	2			5	0	0	0									1,426	*
114		44	17		-	8	99.9		92.7		92	3	0		4	1	0		0		0						1,994	*
113		44	18		-	7	100.0		87.0		86	6	0		6	1	0	0	0								2,731	*
112		43	18		-	8	99.9		84.0		85	7	0		6	1	0	0	0								3,702	*
111		43	19		-	7	99.8		77.8		81	9	0		7	2	0	0	0	0							4,908	*
110		42	19		-	8	99.7		69.3		75	12	0		8	2	1	0	0	0	0	0					6,268	*
109		42	20		-	7	99.6		59.9		70	16	1	0	8	3	1	1	0	0	0	0					8,038	*
108		41	20		-	8	99.4		48.9		62	19	2	0	10	4	2	1	0	0	0		0	0			10,107	*
107		41	21		-	7	98.9		38.2		54	23	3	0	11	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0				12,414	*
106		40	21		-	8	98.4		27.2		46	27	4	0	12	5	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0			14,844	*
105		39	21		-	9	97.7		17.0		38	29	6	0	12	6	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0		17,557	*
104		39	22		-	8	96.9		9.5		29	31	9	1	13	7	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	20,314	*
103		38	22		-	9	95.3		4.9		22	30	12	1	12	8	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0		23,492	*
102		38	23		-	8	93.5		1.8		16	29	15	2	12	9	6	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0		26,220	*
101		37	23		-	9	91.1		0.6		11	26	17	3	12	10	8	5	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	29,044	*
100		37	24		-	8	87.8		0.1		7	21	20	5	11	10	8	6	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	31,318	*
99		36	24		-	9	84.2		0.0		4	17	20	7	10	10	9	7	5	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	33,435	*
98		36	25		-	8	80.3		No		2	13	20	9	10	10	9	8	6	5	4	2	1	1	0	0	34,701	*
97		35	25		-	9	75.2		No		1	9	18	11	8	10	10	9	8	6	4	3	2	1	1	0	35,726	*
96		35	26		-	8	70.0		No		1	6	15	12	8	9	10	10	8	7	5	4	3	2	1	0	36,216	*
95		34	26		-	9	63.7		No		0	3	12	13	6	8	10	10	9	8	7	5	4	2	1	0	35,929	*
94		34	27		-	8	57.4		No		0	2	10	13	5	8	10	10	10	9	8	6	5	3	2	1	35,511	*
93		33	27		-	9	51.1		No		0	1	7	13	4	7	9	10	10	9	8	7	6	4	2	1	34,390	*
92		33	28		-	8	44.1		No		0	1	5	12	4	6	8	9	10	11	10	9	7	5	3	1	32,280	*
91		32	28		-	9	37.7		No			0	3	11	3	5	7	9	10	10	11	10	8	7	4	2	30,072	*
90		32	29		-	8	32.2		No			0	2	10	2	4	6	8	9	11	11	10	10	8	6	3	27,683	*
89		31	29		-	9	26.2		No			0	1	8	2	3	5	7	9	10	11	12	11	10	7	4	25,023	*
88		31	30		-	8	21.7		No			0	1	7	1	3	4	6	8	9	11	12	12	12	9	6	22,129	*
87		30	30		-	9	16.8		No				0	5	1	2	4	5	7	9	10	12	13	13	11	7	19,366	*
86		30	31		-	8	12.7		No			0	0	4	0	1	3	4	6	8	10	12	14	14	13	10	16,604	*
85		29	31		-	9	10.2		No				0	3	0	1	2	4	5	7	9	12	14	15	16	12	14,084	*
84		29	32		-	8	7.5		No				0	2	0	1	2	3	4	6	8	10	14	17	18	15	11,634	*
83		28	32		-	9	5.6		No				0	2	0	0	1	2	3	5	7	10	13	17	21	18	9,510	*
82		28	33		-	8	4.4		No				0	1	0	0	1	2	2	4	6	9	12	17	22	23	7,705	*
81		27	33		-	9	2.6		No					1	0	0	1	1	2	3	5	8	11	16	24	27	6,021	*
80		27	34		-	8	2.0		No					1	0	0	0	1	2	2	4	6	9	16	26	32	4,699	*
79		26	34		-	9	1.7		No					0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	6	10	15	25	37	3,655	*
78		26	35		-	8	0.7		No					0		0	0	0	1	1	3	4	9	14	26	42	2,758	*
77		25	35		-	9	0.5		No					0			0	0	0	1	2	4	6	13	26	47	1,988	*
76		25	36		-	8	Out		No										1	1	1	3	4	13	25	52	1,497	*
75		24	36		-	9	0.1		No									0	0	0	1	2	5	9	22	60	1,030	*
74		24	37		-	8	0.1		No									0	0	0	0	2	3	10	18	66	728	*
73		24	38		-	7	0.2		No									0			1	1	3	7	20	68	494	*
72		23	38		-	8	Out		No										1		0	1	2	5	15	76	366	*
71		22	38		-	9	Out		No											0	0	1	1	3	17	78	263	*
70		22	39		-	8	Out		No												1			1	13	85	151	*
69		22	40		-	7	Out		No														1	3	12	84	98	*
68		21	40		-	8	Out		No													2	2	2	8	86	49	*
67		21	41		-	7	Out		No															9	3	88	32	*
66		18	39		-	12	Out		No																11	89	27	*
65		21	43		-	5	Out		No																7	93	14	*
18	-64						Out		No																	100	72	*

Total:							61.2	%	6.4	%	11	10	9	7	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	3	703,480

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday	None

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Carolina vs Philadelphia	+1.1+0.1+0.2-0.9-0.7-0.9
Phoenix vs Vancouver	+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.1
San Jose vs Buffalo	-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

122	-156						100
121		48	14		-	7	99	1
120		48	15		-	6	100	0
119		47	15		-	7	99	1
118		46	15		-	8	98	2
117		46	16		-	7	98	2
116		45	16		-	8	97	3	0
115		45	17		-	7	96	4
114		44	17		-	8	93	7	0	0
113		44	18		-	7	87	12	1
112		43	18		-	8	84	15	1	0
111		43	19		-	7	78	20	2	0
110		42	19		-	8	69	26	4	0
109		42	20		-	7	60	32	7	1	0
108		41	20		-	8	49	38	11	2	0
107		41	21		-	7	38	40	17	4	0	0
106		40	21		-	8	27	40	24	8	1	0	0
105		39	21		-	9	17	35	30	13	4	1	0
104		39	22		-	8	9	28	33	20	8	2	0	0	0
103		38	22		-	9	5	18	30	26	14	5	1	0	0
102		38	23		-	8	2	10	23	29	21	11	4	1	0	0
101		37	23		-	9	1	5	14	24	26	18	9	3	1	0	0
100		37	24		-	8	0	1	7	16	24	24	17	8	3	1	0	0	0
99		36	24		-	9	0	0	2	7	16	24	23	16	8	3	1	0	0
98		36	25		-	8		0	1	2	8	16	23	23	16	8	3	1	0	0
97		35	25		-	9		0	0	1	3	7	15	22	23	17	9	4	1	0	0	0
96		35	26		-	8			0	0	0	2	6	13	21	23	18	11	4	1	0	0	0
95		34	26		-	9				0	0	0	2	5	11	19	22	20	13	6	2	1	0	0
94		34	27		-	8						0	0	1	3	9	17	22	21	15	8	3	1	0	0
93		33	27		-	9							0	0	1	2	7	13	20	22	17	10	5	1	0	0	0
92		33	28		-	8									0	0	1	5	11	18	22	20	13	6	2	1	0	0
91		32	28		-	9								0	0	0	0	1	3	8	15	21	22	16	9	3	1	0	0
90		32	29		-	8										0	0	0	0	2	6	12	19	22	19	11	5	2	0	0	0
89		31	29		-	9										0		0	0	0	1	4	10	17	22	21	14	7	2	1	0	0
88		31	30		-	8													0	0	0	1	3	9	16	21	22	16	8	3	1	0		0
87		30	30		-	9															0	0	1	2	7	14	21	23	18	9	4	1	0	0	0
86		30	31		-	8																0	0	0	2	6	13	21	23	19	11	4	1	0	0
85		29	31		-	9																0	0	0	0	2	5	13	21	25	20	10	4	1	0
84		29	32		-	8																		0	0	0	2	5	13	22	25	19	10	3	0	0
83		28	32		-	9																				0	0	2	6	14	23	26	19	7	2	0
82		28	33		-	8																					0	0	2	7	16	27	27	15	5	1
81		27	33		-	9																						0	1	3	10	21	29	24	10	2
80		27	34		-	8																						0	0	1	5	14	26	31	18	4
79		26	34		-	9																								0	2	8	22	34	26	8
78		26	35		-	8																									1	5	15	33	33	14
77		25	35		-	9																									0	2	10	25	41	22
76		25	36		-	8																									0	1	4	20	44	31
75		24	36		-	9																										0	2	14	42	41
74		24	37		-	8																											2	11	40	47
73		24	38		-	7																											1	3	35	62
72		23	38		-	8																											0	3	23	74
71		22	38		-	9																												2	25	72
70		22	39		-	8																												1	17	82
69		22	40		-	7																												1	10	89
68		21	40		-	8																													8	92
18	-67																																			100

Total:							6	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1