Anaheim Ducks Playoff Chances 2013-2014

Lost to NY Rangers 1-4, playoff odds down 0.04 to 99.5%

20 points 10 6-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
NY Rangers 4 Anaheim 1	-0.2		-3.8		-0.2
Winnipeg 5 Detroit 4			+0.5

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Columbus vs Ottawa			+0.4-0.0-0.0-0.3-0.5-0.2
Minnesota vs Calgary			+0.0-0.3-0.3-0.3*-0.2+0.2
Carolina vs Philadelphia			+0.2+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.1-0.1
Montreal vs St. Louis			+0.2+0.0+0.2-0.2-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Anaheim finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

135	-152						In		Yes		100																762	*
134		55	7		-	4	In		Yes		99				0	0											555	*
133		54	7		-	5	In		99.6	%	100	0			0												831	*
132		54	8		-	4	In		99.5		100	0			0												1,493	*
131		53	8		-	5	In		98.6		99	0			0												2,406	*
130		53	9		-	4	In		97.9		99	1			0	0											3,831	*
129		52	9		-	5	100.0	%	97.4		99	1			0	0	0		0								5,669	*
128		52	10		-	4	100.0		95.5		98	2	0		0	0	0			0							8,461	*
127		51	10		-	5	In		93.0		96	3	0		0	0	0	0									11,871	*
126		51	11		-	4	100.0		89.9		96	4	0		1	0	0		0	0	0						16,494	*
125		50	11		-	5	100.0		85.1		94	6	0		1	0	0	0	0			0	0				22,180	*
124		50	12		-	4	100.0		79.4		91	8	0	0	1	0	0	0	0			0					29,104	*
123		49	12		-	5	In		72.4		88	11	0		1	0	0	0									36,992	*
122		49	13		-	4	100.0		63.4		83	15	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0						46,456	*
121		48	13		-	5	100.0		53.1		78	19	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0		0	0				56,690	*
120		47	13		-	6	100.0		42.6		72	24	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0				67,160	*
119		47	14		-	5	100.0		32.1		66	29	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0				77,605	*
118		46	14		-	6	100.0		22.8		58	34	5	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0			88,133	*
117		46	15		-	5	100.0		14.9		51	39	8	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0					98,432	*
116		45	15		-	6	100.0		8.8		43	42	11	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0			106,707	*
115		45	16		-	5	99.9		4.8		35	45	15	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			113,384	*
114		44	16		-	6	99.9		2.2		28	46	20	2	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			117,952	*
113		44	17		-	5	99.9		0.9		22	45	25	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			119,845	*
112		43	17		-	6	99.9		0.3		16	43	30	6	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0				120,035	*
111		43	18		-	5	99.9		0.1		12	39	35	8	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0				117,500	*
110		42	18		-	6	99.8		0.0		8	35	39	12	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			112,588	*
109		42	19		-	5	99.8		0.0		5	30	42	16	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			106,199	*
108		41	19		-	6	99.7		No		4	24	43	20	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			98,493	*
107		41	20		-	5	99.6		No		2	19	44	25	5	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0			88,864	*
106		40	20		-	6	99.5		No		1	15	43	30	5	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0			78,653	*
105		40	21		-	5	99.3		No		1	11	41	34	5	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0			68,540	*
104		39	21		-	6	99.1		No		1	9	38	39	5	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0			59,093	*
103		39	22		-	5	98.7		No		0	6	34	43	5	4	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0			49,663	*
102		38	22		-	6	98.4		No		0	4	30	47	6	5	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0			40,446	*
101		38	23		-	5	97.9		No		0	3	27	50	6	6	5	2	1	1	0	0	0	0			33,114	*
100		37	23		-	6	97.2		No		0	2	23	52	5	6	5	3	2	1	0	0	0	0			26,315	*
99		37	24		-	5	96.6		No		0	1	19	54	6	6	6	4	2	1	0	0	0	0			20,483	*
98		36	24		-	6	95.6		No		0	1	16	55	6	7	7	4	3	1	0	0	0	0			15,677	*
97		36	25		-	5	94.2		No		0	1	14	55	6	7	8	5	3	2	1	0	0	0			11,801	*
96		35	25		-	6	93.1		No			0	11	55	5	7	8	6	4	2	1	0	0	0			8,809	*
95		35	26		-	5	91.3		No			0	9	54	5	7	10	8	4	2	1	1	0	0			6,484	*
94		34	26		-	6	88.7		No		0	0	6	54	5	7	10	7	5	4	2	1	0	0			4,666	*
93		34	27		-	5	87.6		No				6	52	5	7	10	9	6	4	2	1	0	0			3,210	*
92		33	27		-	6	85.2		No			0	4	48	5	8	11	9	7	4	2	1	0	0			2,268	*
91		33	28		-	5	83.1		No				3	46	4	7	13	9	7	5	3	1	1				1,509	*
90		32	28		-	6	78.1		No				3	42	3	8	11	12	9	6	3	3	1	0			1,048	*
89		32	29		-	5	79.2		No				1	43	4	10	12	10	8	5	4	2	1	0			638	*
88		31	29		-	6	74.2		No				1	41	2	8	12	10	10	8	2	4	1				422	*
87		31	30		-	5	68.1		No				1	36	2	5	13	11	14	6	5	4	2	1			288	*
86		30	30		-	6	60.4		No					28	2	4	11	15	12	10	8	7	2	1			182	*
85		29	30		-	7	63.4		No				1	26	2	7	14	14	15	8	6	5	2				123	*
84		29	31		-	6	51.6		No					20	2	3	14	13	11	17	9	6	3	2			64	*
83		28	31		-	7	34.5		No					10		10	7	7	17	14	21	10	3				29	*
82		28	32		-	6	75.0		No					35		20		20	5	5	10	5					20	*
81		27	32		-	7	55.6		No							22	11	22	22			11	11				9	*
80		27	33		-	6	70.0		No					30			10	30		10	10			10			10	*
79		27	34		-	5	33.3		No								33		33		33						3	*
78		27	35		-	4	33.3		No									33			33	33					3	*
77		25	34		-	7	33.3		No									33		33			33				3
76		25	35		-	6	Out		No										100								1
20		0	66		-	0	Out		No															100			174

Total:							99.5	%	13.5	%	29	27	23	13	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0			2,110,440

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
NY Rangers 4 Anaheim 1	+0.5
Winnipeg 5 Detroit 4	-0.1

Tuesday	None

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

134	-152						100
133		54	7		-	5	100	0
132		54	8		-	4	99	1
131		53	8		-	5	99	1
130		53	9		-	4	98	2
129		52	9		-	5	97	3
128		52	10		-	4	96	4	0
127		51	10		-	5	93	7	0
126		51	11		-	4	90	10	0	0
125		50	11		-	5	85	14	1	0
124		50	12		-	4	79	19	2	0
123		49	12		-	5	72	25	3	0	0
122		49	13		-	4	63	31	5	0	0
121		48	13		-	5	53	37	9	1	0	0
120		47	13		-	6	43	41	14	2	0	0	0
119		47	14		-	5	32	42	20	5	1	0	0
118		46	14		-	6	23	40	27	9	2	0	0	0
117		46	15		-	5	15	35	32	15	4	1	0	0
116		45	15		-	6	9	27	34	21	7	2	0	0	0
115		45	16		-	5	5	20	32	26	13	4	1	0	0
114		44	16		-	6	2	12	27	30	19	7	2	0	0
113		44	17		-	5	1	7	20	29	25	13	4	1	0	0
112		43	17		-	6	0	3	12	25	29	20	8	2	0	0
111		43	18		-	5	0	1	7	18	28	26	14	5	1	0	0	0
110		42	18		-	6	0	0	3	11	23	28	21	9	2	0	0
109		42	19		-	5	0	0	1	6	16	27	27	16	6	1	0	0
108		41	19		-	6		0	0	3	10	22	29	23	11	3	0	0
107		41	20		-	5		0	0	1	5	15	27	28	17	6	1	0
106		40	20		-	6			0	0	2	9	21	30	25	11	2	0	0
105		40	21		-	5			0	0	1	4	14	27	30	18	5	0	0
104		39	21		-	6				0	0	2	8	21	32	25	10	1	0
103		39	22		-	5				0	0	1	4	15	29	32	16	3	0	0
102		38	22		-	6					0	0	2	9	24	35	24	6	1	0
101		38	23		-	5						0	1	5	17	34	32	11	1	0
100		37	23		-	6						0	0	2	10	29	37	18	3	0	0
99		37	24		-	5						0	0	1	6	22	39	25	6	1	0
98		36	24		-	6							0	0	3	15	36	33	12	2	0	0
97		36	25		-	5								0	1	9	30	37	18	4	0	0
96		35	25		-	6									0	5	23	38	25	8	1	0
95		35	26		-	5									0	2	15	35	31	14	3	0	0
94		34	26		-	6									0	1	9	27	33	21	7	1	0
93		34	27		-	5										0	4	20	33	28	11	3	0
92		33	27		-	6										0	1	13	27	31	19	7	2	0
91		33	28		-	5											1	6	19	28	26	15	4	1
90		32	28		-	6											0	3	10	26	29	21	8	2	1	0
89		32	29		-	5											0	0	5	18	27	24	18	5	2	0
88		31	29		-	6												0	3	9	21	27	24	10	5	1	0
87		31	30		-	5												0	1	5	9	22	28	20	10	2	1
86		30	30		-	6													1		9	16	24	22	19	6	3	1
85		29	30		-	7															6	13	16	22	25	13	4		1
84		29	31		-	6																3	6	13	34	25	14	5
83		29	32		-	5																10	14	17	10	17	17	7	7
82		28	32		-	6																		5	10	15	25	20	15	10
81		27	32		-	7																			11	33	11	22	11	11
80		27	33		-	6																				20	40	10	20	10
79		27	34		-	5																						67		33
78		27	35		-	4																							33		67
77		25	34		-	7																							67		33
76		25	35		-	6																												100
20		0	66		-	0																														100

Total:							13	13	12	11	10	9	8	7	6	5	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			0		0