Anaheim Ducks Playoff Chances 2013-2014 50/50

Lost to NY Rangers 1-4, playoff odds down 1.8 to 69.6%

20 points 10 6-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
NY Rangers 4 Anaheim 1	-3.5		-1.6		-0.4

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
San Jose vs Buffalo	-0.5-0.2+0.1-0.0+0.1+0.5
Florida vs Edmonton	+0.4-0.2-0.1+0.1-0.2-0.3
Boston vs Dallas	+0.3-0.2+0.3-0.2+0.1-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Anaheim finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

122	-152						In		99.2	%	100																124	*
121		47	12		-	7	In		97.8		98				2												45	*
120		47	13		-	6	In		Yes		98				2												84	*
119		46	13		-	7	In		97.6		98				2												126	*
118		46	14		-	6	In		97.2		97	1			2	0											253	*
117		45	14		-	7	In		98.0		98	0			2	0											348	*
116		44	14		-	8	99.8	%	95.7		97	1			2	0			0								529	*
115		44	15		-	7	In		92.8		96	2			2	0											773	*
114		43	15		-	8	In		90.7		94	2	0		4	0											1,190	*
113		43	16		-	7	In		87.1		93	3			4	0	0										1,593	*
112		42	16		-	8	In		82.4		91	5	0		4	1		0									2,239	*
111		42	17		-	7	99.9		76.5		88	6	0		5	1	0	0	0	0		0					3,051	*
110		41	17		-	8	99.9		65.7		84	8	0		6	1	0	0		0							4,146	*
109		41	18		-	7	99.9		57.4		79	11	0	0	7	1	0	0	0		0	0					5,490	*
108		40	18		-	8	99.9		46.3		74	15	1		7	2	1	0	0	0	0	0					6,884	*
107		40	19		-	7	99.8		35.8		67	19	1	0	9	3	1	0	0	0	0						8,955	*
106		39	19		-	8	99.8		25.3		61	23	2	0	9	3	1	0	0	0	0	0					11,049	*
105		39	20		-	7	99.5		16.0		53	27	3	0	10	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0			13,664	*
104		38	20		-	8	99.2		9.0		44	30	5	0	11	5	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0			16,185	*
103		38	21		-	7	98.9		4.0		37	32	8	0	12	6	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0			19,302	*
102		37	21		-	8	98.3		1.7		29	33	11	1	12	7	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0			22,275	*
101		37	22		-	7	97.3		0.5		21	33	14	2	13	8	5	3	1	1	0	0	0	0			25,221	*
100		36	22		-	8	96.3		0.1		16	31	17	3	13	8	6	3	2	1	1	0	0	0			28,149	*
99		36	23		-	7	94.7		0.0		11	27	20	4	12	9	7	4	3	2	1	0	0	0			30,913	*
98		35	23		-	8	92.3		No		7	23	22	6	12	10	8	5	4	2	1	1	0	0			32,861	*
97		35	24		-	7	89.9		No		4	18	23	8	11	10	9	6	4	3	2	1	0	0			34,746	*
96		34	24		-	8	86.5		No		2	14	22	10	10	11	10	8	6	4	2	1	1	0			36,215	*
95		34	25		-	7	82.7		No		1	10	20	12	9	11	10	9	7	5	3	2	1	0			37,026	*
94		33	25		-	8	77.9		No		1	6	18	14	8	10	11	10	8	6	4	2	1	0			37,265	*
93		33	26		-	7	72.4		No		0	4	15	15	7	10	11	11	9	7	5	4	2	1			36,554	*
92		32	26		-	8	66.9		No		0	2	12	15	6	9	11	11	10	9	7	4	2	1			35,344	*
91		31	26		-	9	61.0		No		0	1	8	15	5	8	11	11	11	10	8	6	3	1			33,773	*
90		31	27		-	8	54.8		No		0	1	6	15	4	7	10	12	11	11	10	7	4	2			31,758	*
89		31	28		-	7	47.6		No			0	4	14	3	6	9	11	12	12	11	9	6	3			28,954	*
88		30	28		-	8	41.6		No			0	3	12	3	5	8	11	12	12	12	11	8	4			25,970	*
87		29	28		-	9	35.6		No			0	2	11	2	4	7	10	12	13	13	12	9	5			23,182	*
86		29	29		-	8	29.3		No			0	1	9	1	3	6	9	11	13	14	14	12	7			20,489	*
85		29	30		-	7	24.2		No		0	0	1	7	1	3	5	7	11	13	15	15	14	9			17,305	*
84		28	30		-	8	19.3		No				0	6	1	2	4	7	9	12	15	17	16	12			14,761	*
83		28	31		-	7	15.7		No				0	4	0	2	3	6	8	11	15	17	19	14			12,301	*
82		27	31		-	8	12.4		No				0	4	0	1	3	4	7	10	14	17	21	18			9,822	*
81		26	31		-	9	8.3		No				0	2	0	1	2	4	6	9	14	18	23	23			8,041	*
80		26	32		-	8	5.8		No				0	2	0	1	1	2	5	8	12	18	24	27			6,413	*
79		25	32		-	9	4.2		No				0	1	0	0	1	2	4	6	12	17	27	30			4,919	*
78		25	33		-	8	3.4		No					1	0	0	1	2	3	5	10	16	25	36			3,685	*
77		25	34		-	7	2.3		No					1	0	0	0	1	2	4	9	15	27	41			2,755	*
76		24	34		-	8	1.0		No					1			0	0	1	4	6	14	27	47			2,022	*
75		23	34		-	9	1.5		No					0		0	1	1	1	3	5	13	23	53			1,493	*
74		23	35		-	8	0.6		No					0				0	1	2	4	10	24	59			1,074	*
73		22	35		-	9	0.4		No					0				0	1	1	4	8	20	66			671	*
72		22	36		-	8	Out		No											1	2	9	20	68			459	*
71		22	37		-	7	0.3		No					0						1	2	7	17	73			367	*
70		21	37		-	8	Out		No												1	3	17	79			214	*
69		20	37		-	9	Out		No												3	1	11	86			166	*
68		20	38		-	8	1.1		No									1		1			19	79			94	*
67		20	39		-	7	2.2		No								2						4	93			45	*
66		19	39		-	8	Out		No														3	98			40	*
65		20	41		-	5	Out		No														4	96			27	*
20	-64						Out		No															100			81	*

Total:							69.6	%	4.1	%	12	12	11	8	7	7	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	3			703,480

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
NY Rangers 4 Anaheim 1	+1.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Montreal vs St. Louis	-0.0+0.1-0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

123	-152						100
122		47	11		-	8	96	4
121		47	12		-	7	98	2
120		47	13		-	6	100
119		46	13		-	7	98	2
118		46	14		-	6	97	3
117		45	14		-	7	98	2	0
116		45	15		-	6	96	4
115		44	15		-	7	93	7	0
114		43	15		-	8	91	9	0
113		43	16		-	7	87	12	1
112		42	16		-	8	82	16	1	0
111		42	17		-	7	76	21	3	0
110		41	17		-	8	66	29	4	1
109		41	18		-	7	57	34	8	1	0
108		40	18		-	8	46	39	13	2	0
107		40	19		-	7	36	41	18	4	1	0
106		39	19		-	8	25	40	25	9	2	0	0	0
105		39	20		-	7	16	35	30	14	4	1	0
104		38	20		-	8	9	27	32	21	9	2	0	0
103		38	21		-	7	4	18	29	27	15	5	1	0	0
102		37	21		-	8	2	9	23	28	22	11	4	1	0	0	0
101		37	22		-	7	0	4	13	24	27	19	9	3	1	0	0
100		36	22		-	8	0	1	6	15	24	25	17	8	3	1	0	0
99		36	23		-	7	0	0	2	8	16	23	23	16	8	3	1	0	0
98		35	23		-	8		0	0	2	7	16	23	22	16	8	3	1	0	0
97		35	24		-	7		0	0	0	2	7	15	22	23	17	9	4	1	0	0	0
96		34	24		-	8		0	0	0	0	2	6	13	20	23	18	11	5	1	0	0	0
95		34	25		-	7				0	0	0	1	5	11	19	23	20	13	6	2	0	0	0	0
94		33	25		-	8						0	0	1	4	9	16	22	21	15	8	3	1	0	0	0
93		33	26		-	7							0	0	1	2	7	14	20	22	18	11	4	1	0	0	0
92		32	26		-	8								0	0	0	2	5	11	18	23	20	13	6	2	1	0	0	0
91		31	26		-	9								0	0	0	0	1	3	8	15	21	21	16	9	4	1	0	0
90		31	27		-	8											0	0	1	2	6	13	19	22	18	11	5	2	0	0	0
89		31	28		-	7												0	0	0	1	4	10	18	22	21	14	7	2	1	0	0
88		30	28		-	8													0	0	0	1	3	8	16	22	22	16	8	3	1	0	0
87		29	28		-	9															0	0	1	2	7	14	21	23	18	9	3	1	0	0
86		29	29		-	8															0	0	0	0	2	6	13	21	23	19	11	4	1	0	0
85		29	30		-	7																	0	0	0	2	5	12	20	25	20	11	4	1	0
84		28	30		-	8																		0	0	0	2	6	13	21	25	20	10	3	0	0
83		28	31		-	7																				0	0	2	6	14	24	26	18	8	2	0
82		27	31		-	8																			0		0	1	2	7	17	26	26	16	5	1
81		26	31		-	9																						0	1	3	10	21	29	25	11	2
80		26	32		-	8																							0	1	5	14	27	30	18	5
79		25	32		-	9																							0	0	2	8	19	34	28	9
78		25	33		-	8																								0	1	3	14	31	37	15
77		25	34		-	7																									0	1	9	26	41	24
76		24	34		-	8																										0	4	18	43	34
75		23	34		-	9																										1	2	14	39	44
74		23	35		-	8																											1	9	37	53
73		22	35		-	9																											0	5	34	61
72		22	36		-	8																												3	26	70
71		22	37		-	7																												1	20	79
70		21	37		-	8																												0	14	86
69		20	37		-	9																													11	89
68		20	38		-	8																													7	93
67		20	39		-	7																													2	98
20	-66																																			100

Total:							4	4	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1