Colorado Avalanche Playoff Chances 2013-2014

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.2 to 55.9%
13 points   6 6-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs
Winnipeg 5 Detroit 4 -0.6
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs
Florida vs Edmonton+0.6*-0.1*+0.0*+0.0*-0.1-0.4
San Jose vs Buffalo-0.4*-0.1*-0.1*-0.0*+0.2+0.4
Boston vs Dallas+0.4*+0.1*+0.2*-0.0*+0.0-0.4
Phoenix vs Vancouver-0.3*-0.2*-0.2*+0.2*+0.3+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy12345678910111213141516Count
123-151InYes100175*
1204911-9InNo1001
1195114-4InNo50502*
1184913-7In27.3%27551811*
1174813-895.0%15.0402510155520*
1164713-9In8.35417171324*
1154714-8In7.0282312261157*
1144614-9In3.72040728582*
1134716-699.32.0152614132931148*
1124616-7In0.4112522426921237*
1114516-8In0.372419535811375*
1104416-9InNo318227351221623*
1094417-899.6No214208361441000932*
1084317-999.4No2112011361541001,417*
1074318-899.3No171914361651002,128*
1064218-999.2No1616163616621003,053*
1054219-898.7No04141637196210004,361*
1044119-998.5No02121736208310006,026*
1034120-898.1No0291835229410008,265*
1024020-997.7No0171735231052100011,193*
1014021-896.7No00517332412521000014,735*
1003921-995.9No041632251363100019,178*
993922-895.0No0315312514731000024,590*
983822-993.5No00214292615842100030,647*
973823-891.8No0212272616952100037,481*
963723-990.3No01112526171062100045,143*
953724-887.9No01102325181263110053,651*
943624-985.7No0182025191374210062,026*
933524-1082.9No0071923191495210070,894*
923525-980.5No0061723201595310079,978*
913425-1077.3No00515212015106421087,758*
903426-973.7No00513202016127421095,314*
893427-870.1No004121820171285310101,766*
883327-966.5No003101719171396310106,314*
873328-862.2No03916181714107421109,768*
863228-958.1No002714171715118521110,234*
853128-1054.0No02612161715129631110,653*
843129-949.7No025111517161310631107,827*
833029-1045.6No0014101416161411842102,950*
823030-941.6No00148131616151295297,992*
813031-837.1No001371215161513106390,462*
802931-933.7No01261114161614117382,125*
792932-829.7No0125913151615128474,656*
782832-926.2No00148121416161310565,375*
772833-822.8No00137111416161411656,905*
762733-919.9No00136101315161513748,275*
752734-817.1No0012591215171614940,246*
742634-914.5No0024811141717161133,521*
732635-812.3No0024711141618171227,069*
722535-910.3No001369131619191421,144*
712536-88.5No001258121619211716,500*
702436-96.8No001247111519221912,578*
692437-85.9No00114610141923239,533*
682337-94.6No0001359132023257,148*
672338-83.6No0001258131925275,254*
662238-92.7No0001247121826313,681*
652239-82.3No0001236111727342,578*
642240-71.8No0012591726391,839*
632140-80.8No0012491624431,177*
622040-91.8No001157152447774*
612041-81.2No1147152746494*
602042-70.9No01126142550333*
591942-8OutNo123112460224*
581842-90.7No124102559142*
571843-8OutNo1149236299*
561743-9OutNo211206755*
551744-8OutNo5296721*
541543-11OutNo8316213*
531544-10OutNo29717*
521545-9OutNo1004*
511647-6OutNo50502*
13-50OutNo100177*
Total:55.9%0.0%000410141414121086532,110,440

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday100.0*Lottery seed
Winnipeg 5 Detroit 4 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Washington vs NY Islanders*+0.0*+0.0*+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0
Carolina vs Philadelphia+0.0*+0.1+0.0*+0.0*-0.0-0.0
Florida vs Edmonton-0.0*+0.0*+0.1*-0.0*+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
123-151100
1204911-9100
1195114-45050
1184913-72745999
1174813-81530251515
1164814-783317338
1154714-8733262112
1144614-941134331062
1134716-628172928951
1124616-7051228281681
1114516-801615272715610
1104416-90392029221340
1094417-80241624271510200
1084317-900291925261441
1074318-801411222922920
1064218-901715282815510
1054219-8001392329221120
1044119-901515272917500
1034120-800282232251010
1024020-900141428321730
1014021-80029243424610
1003921-90151633331110
993922-800211293817300
983822-9016224026610
973823-800315363311200
963723-90193137184000
953724-80052338248100
943624-900215353113300
933524-100192834206100
923525-9005203327113000
913425-10002132931186100
903426-9017213124123100
893427-80031427291872000
883327-900172028241341000
873328-800312242820931000
863228-900161626251672000
853128-100039202623135100
843129-9001412222620103100
833029-10000261524251782000
823030-9000281825241562000
813031-80013102026221251000
802931-9001513222520103100
792932-80026152425178200
782832-900038172524156100
772833-800141121272211310
762733-90001514242719820
752734-80002818272614410
742634-9001311233022910
732635-800161628291530
722535-90021024322381
712536-80015173131132
702436-9002112736203
692437-800162138286
682337-900315353610
672338-80110314216
662238-9016264621
652239-803214827
642240-72134837
632140-8194447
622040-9073855
612041-853461
602042-732671
591942-812574
581842-911980
571843-81387
561743-92080
551744-81981
541543-11892
13-53100
Total:000000001125788887766554332210