New England Patriots Playoff Chances 1

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%

0-0-0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
New England vs Buffalo	+6.8*-0.4-6.8		+1.1-0.3-1.1		-1.1-0.3+1.1		+0.8-0.0-0.8
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	-0.8*+0.2+0.8						-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Miami vs Cleveland	-0.4*-0.3+0.4
Chicago vs Cincinnati	+0.3*-0.4-0.3

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
New England vs NY Jets	+6.8*-0.2-6.8		+1.1-0.3-1.1		-1.1-0.3+1.1		+0.8+0.0-0.8
Buffalo vs Carolina	-0.7*+0.2+0.7						-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Miami vs Indianapolis	-0.4*-0.1+0.4
Denver vs NY Giants	-0.3*+0.2+0.3
Kansas City vs Dallas	-0.3*-0.1+0.3
San Diego vs Philadelphia	-0.3*-0.0+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the New England finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

16		16	-	0	-	0	In		97.5	%	100				0	0											No		993
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	In		66.7		94				6												No		18
15		15	-	1	-	0	99.9	%	67.9		98	0			2	0	0		0								No		2,467
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	In		58.1		96	0			2	1											No		289
14		14	-	2	-	0	99.3		52.3		93	1	0		4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			No		18,522	*
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	98.9		44.3		91	2			5	2	0	0	0	0	0						No		2,090
13		13	-	3	-	0	97.1		36.5		83	5	0		7	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		No		84,880
		12	-	2	-	2	98.2		36.3		85	4			4	5	1					1					No		113
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	95.5		29.0		75	8	0		8	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0		No		8,893	*
12		12	-	4	-	0	92.0		22.6		62	14	1	0	10	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	No		275,455
		11	-	3	-	2	92.4		22.9		67	13	1		7	4	4	1	1	1	0	0					No		423
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	88.5		16.6		49	20	2	0	11	7	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	No		26,767	*
11		11	-	5	-	0	82.3		12.2		33	24	6	0	11	8	6	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.0	%	659,336
		10	-	4	-	2	83.4		12.8		33	26	6	0	11	8	6	5	3	2	1	1	0	0		0	No		1,176
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	76.4		8.2		20	25	9	1	12	9	7	5	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0.0		58,656
		9	-	4	-	3	85.7		7.1		25	36	4		7	14		4	4	7							No		28
10		10	-	6	-	0	68.0		5.7		10	21	14	3	11	9	8	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0.0		1,208,607
		9	-	5	-	2	69.7		5.7		11	20	15	3	11	10	8	7	5	4	2	2	1	1	0	0	No		2,244	*
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	59.9		3.4		4	14	16	5	11	10	9	8	7	5	4	3	2	1	1	0	0.1		97,707
		8	-	5	-	3	59.1		3.0		2	11	14	3	17	14	11	5	6	5	6	5	3	2			No		66
9		9	-	7	-	0	50.7		2.3		1	8	14	8	9	9	9	8	7	6	5	5	4	3	2	1	0.2		1,725,583
		8	-	6	-	2	49.3		1.4		2	7	14	7	9	11	9	9	8	7	6	4	3	2	1	0	0.1		3,493
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	41.8		1.2		0	3	11	11	8	9	9	9	8	8	7	6	5	4	2	1	0.3		125,066
		7	-	6	-	3	34.7		No			5	4	9	9	7	17	16	5	7	7	7	3	1	1	1	No		75
8		8	-	8	-	0	33.5		0.7		0	1	7	11	6	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	5	4	2	0.7		1,943,516
		7	-	7	-	2	31.9		0.7		0	1	6	11	6	9	9	9	9	9	8	8	7	6	3	2	0.5		4,073	*
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	25.5		0.3		0	0	3	10	5	6	7	8	9	9	9	9	8	7	6	3	1.2		124,608
		6	-	7	-	3	26.9		3.0				3	10	3	10	7	12	7	4	16	7	9	3	4	1	No		67
7		7	-	9	-	0	19.0		0.2		0	0	2	9	4	5	6	7	8	9	9	9	9	9	8	6	2.2		1,727,185
		6	-	8	-	2	17.3		0.1				2	8	3	5	6	8	8	10	10	9	10	9	7	5	1.9		3,590	*
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	12.9		0.1			0	1	6	2	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	11	11	8	3.4		96,731
		5	-	8	-	3	7.1		No					2	2	4	4	2	16	5	20	13	7	9	11	7	3.6		56
6		6	-	10	-	0	9.1		0.0			0	0	5	2	3	4	5	6	7	9	10	11	13	13	12	5.7		1,208,536
		5	-	9	-	2	7.3		0.0				0	4	1	2	4	5	6	7	10	12	12	13	13	11	4.6		2,342
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	5.4		0.0				0	3	1	2	3	4	5	6	8	10	12	14	16	17	8.0		58,522
		4	-	9	-	3	3.7		No							4		4		7	15	7	7	7	11	37	7.4		27
5		5	-	11	-	0	3.6		0.0				0	2	1	1	2	3	4	5	7	9	11	15	19	23	12.3		660,150
		4	-	10	-	2	2.7		No				0	2	0	1	2	2	4	6	7	9	12	14	19	23	10.9		1,173
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	1.8		No				0	1	0	1	1	2	3	4	5	8	11	15	21	29	16.2		26,383	*
4		4	-	12	-	0	1.1		0.0					1	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	6	9	14	22	36	22.5		275,193
		3	-	11	-	2	1.2		No					1		0	0	1	2	3	4	4	9	15	24	37	23.5		422
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	0.5		No					0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	4	8	13	23	44	28.8		8,928	*
3		3	-	13	-	0	0.2		No					0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	4	6	11	22	52	36.3		84,252
		2	-	12	-	2	0.9		No					1						1	1	4	4	11	27	52	33.3		114
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	Out		No								0	0	0	1	1	3	5	9	23	60	43.6		2,104	*
2		2	-	14	-	0	0.1		No					0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	8	19	68	52.6		17,906	*
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No								0					0	2	5	18	74	61.5		283
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No											0	0	0	1	4	14	80	68.2		2,317	*
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1	Out		No													6		6	6	82	76.5		17
0		0	-	16	-	0	Out		No														0	0	1	99	97.3		974

Total:							37.5	%	3.1	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.1	%	10,552,416

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
New England vs Buffalo	-1.6+0.0+1.6

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
New England vs NY Jets	-1.6-0.0+1.6

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

16		16	-	0	-	0	97	2	0	0	0				0
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	67	17				11	6
15		15	-	1	-	0	68	17	8	3	1	1	0	0	0				0	0
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	58	21	9	6	3	0	0	0		1				0
14		14	-	2	-	0	52	20	11	6	3	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0									0
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	44	21	11	7	5	4	2	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0			0
13		13	-	3	-	0	36	20	13	9	6	5	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		12	-	2	-	2	36	19	11	12	6	5	3	3	2	2				1				1
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	29	18	13	9	7	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12		12	-	4	-	0	23	16	12	10	7	6	5	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		11	-	3	-	2	23	17	12	12	8	7	5	3	3	2	1	2	1	2	1	1	0			0	0
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	17	14	12	10	8	7	6	5	4	4	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11		11	-	5	-	0	12	11	10	9	8	7	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	13	11	9	8	9	8	6	6	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	8	9	9	8	8	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	4	-	3	7	18	4	14	7	7	4	7	7	7		4	4		4				4	4
10		10	-	6	-	0	6	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	6	6	6	6	7	6	6	6	6	5	4	5	4	3	4	4	2	3	1	2	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	3	5	5	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3	3	2	8	3	8	6	8	6	3	3	6	3	5	3	3	5	5	3	2	2	6	3	2	5	2
9		9	-	7	-	0	2	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
		8	-	6	-	2	1	2	3	5	5	4	5	5	5	5	5	4	5	4	4	4	4	4	3	4	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	0
		7	-	6	-	3		1		4	3	3	4	8	4	3	3	5	5	9	9	3	5	4	1	4	4	4	5		3	1	1			3
8		8	-	8	-	0	1	1	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	1	1
		7	-	7	-	2	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	1	1	1
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	4	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	1
		6	-	7	-	3	3			1	1	3	4	3	1		3	3	6	4	3	9	1	10	1	6	7	4	1	1	6	4	1	1		4	1
7		7	-	9	-	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	3	2
		6	-	8	-	2	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	3	3	2
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	5	5	5	3
		5	-	8	-	3					2		2		2		4	2	4		2	4	4		4	2	9	5	13	7	9		5	7	4	2	7	4
6		6	-	10	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	6
		5	-	9	-	2	0		0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	4	5	5	4	5	5	7	7	8	7	6	7	6	5
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	8	8	8	9	8
		4	-	9	-	3												4		4							11	4	7	7		4	11	7	11	7	15	7
5		5	-	11	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
		4	-	10	-	2							0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	7	7	8	8	8	9	13	11
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	5	6	7	8	10	12	14	16
4		4	-	12	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	5	6	8	10	12	16	22
		3	-	11	-	2										0		0	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	1	2	1	3	4	3	4	5	9	10	14	16	23
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1						0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	5	7	10	13	18	29
3		3	-	13	-	0						0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	6	9	12	20	36
		2	-	12	-	2																			1		1		2	1	2	2	6	4	12	20	17	33
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1													0			0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	4	5	7	13	21	44
2		2	-	14	-	0													0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	3	4	6	10	20	53
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																			1			0					1	2	6	7	21	61
1		1	-	15	-	0																			0	0		0	0	0	0	1	1	2	4	8	17	68
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1																											6		6		12	76
0		0	-	16	-	0																													0	0	2	97

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3