Chicago Bears Playoff Chances 1

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%

0-0-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Chicago vs Cincinnati	+6.0*-0.4-6.0		+1.1-0.3-1.1		-1.1-0.3+1.1		+0.7+0.0-0.7
San Francisco vs Green Bay	+0.4*+0.4-0.4
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	+0.3*-0.1-0.3

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Chicago vs Minnesota	+6.8*-0.4-6.8		+1.1-0.3-1.1		-1.1-0.3+1.1		+0.8+0.0-0.8
Green Bay vs Washington	-0.4*-0.1+0.5
Arizona vs Detroit	+0.4*+0.0-0.4
Kansas City vs Dallas	+0.3*-0.3-0.3
Denver vs NY Giants	+0.3*+0.3-0.3
Buffalo vs Carolina	+0.3*+0.1-0.3
San Diego vs Philadelphia	+0.3*+0.0-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Chicago finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

16		16	-	0	-	0	In		97.6	%	100				0												No		960
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	In		76.0		96				4												No		25
15		15	-	1	-	0	99.7	%	67.6		98	0			2	0	0	0	0								No		2,371
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	99.6		62.5		96				4		0										No		285
14		14	-	2	-	0	99.2		52.7		93	1			4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0					No		18,106	*
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	98.7		46.2		91	2			4	2	1	0	0	0			0				No		2,060
13		13	-	3	-	0	97.1		36.2		83	5	0		7	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		No		84,224
		12	-	2	-	2	In		45.8		83	3			8	6											No		120
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	95.6		28.8		75	8	0		8	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0			No		9,013	*
12		12	-	4	-	0	91.9		22.6		62	14	1	0	10	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0	%	275,534
		11	-	3	-	2	93.4		21.7		63	16	0		9	6	4	1	1	0	1				0		No		411
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	88.3		16.7		49	19	2	0	11	7	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	No		26,535	*
11		11	-	5	-	0	82.2		12.2		32	24	6	0	11	8	6	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.0		658,705
		10	-	4	-	2	82.4		10.4		35	24	4	1	12	7	6	5	3	2	1	1	0	0		0	No		1,138
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	76.4		8.0		20	25	9	1	12	9	7	5	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0.0		58,001
		9	-	4	-	3	91.9		8.1		14	32	11		24	11	3		3		3						No		37
10		10	-	6	-	0	68.1		5.7		10	21	14	3	11	9	8	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0.0		1,208,704
		9	-	5	-	2	70.2		4.5		11	20	14	3	11	10	7	7	5	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0.0		2,353	*
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	60.1		3.5		4	14	16	5	11	10	9	7	6	5	4	3	2	1	1	0	0.1		97,224
		8	-	5	-	3	54.5		2.3		5	20	7	7	2	14	5	14	11		2	7	5		2		No		44
9		9	-	7	-	0	50.8		2.3		1	8	14	8	9	9	9	8	7	6	6	5	4	3	2	1	0.2		1,728,250
		8	-	6	-	2	50.9		1.8		2	8	15	8	9	9	9	8	8	6	6	5	3	2	1	0	0.1		3,573	*
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	41.6		1.2		0	3	11	10	8	9	9	9	8	8	7	6	5	4	2	1	0.3		125,087
		7	-	6	-	3	31.0		No			4	7	10	4	6	10	6	7	11	8	17	4	6			No		71	*
8		8	-	8	-	0	33.5		0.7		0	1	7	11	6	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	5	4	2	0.7		1,942,598
		7	-	7	-	2	33.5		0.5		0	1	7	11	7	8	9	8	9	9	8	7	6	5	3	2	0.6		3,963	*
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	25.1		0.3		0	0	3	10	5	6	7	8	9	9	9	9	8	7	6	3	1.1		125,032
		6	-	7	-	3	20.3		No				4	8	1	7	3	14	11	8	12	5	11	9	4	3	1.4		74
7		7	-	9	-	0	19.0		0.2		0	0	2	9	4	5	6	7	8	9	9	9	9	9	8	6	2.2		1,727,828
		6	-	8	-	2	18.0		0.1			0	1	8	3	5	6	7	9	10	9	10	10	9	7	5	1.6		3,496	*
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	12.9		0.1			0	0	6	2	4	5	6	7	8	10	10	11	11	10	8	3.3		97,486
		5	-	8	-	3	15.9		No					9	5	2	5	7	9	11	7	9	16	11	7	2	No		44
6		6	-	10	-	0	9.1		0.0			0	0	5	2	3	4	5	6	7	9	10	11	13	13	12	5.7		1,208,729
		5	-	9	-	2	7.8		No				0	4	1	2	3	4	6	7	10	10	12	13	14	12	5.4		2,287	*
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	5.3		0.0				0	3	1	2	3	4	5	6	8	10	12	14	16	17	8.0		58,038
		4	-	9	-	3	3.6		No							4		4		4	7	14	11	21	14	21	3.6		28
5		5	-	11	-	0	3.5		0.0				0	2	1	1	2	3	4	5	7	9	11	15	19	23	12.2		660,120
		4	-	10	-	2	2.5		No					2	0	1	1	3	4	5	6	11	11	16	20	21	10.2		1,143
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	1.7		No					1	0	1	1	2	3	4	5	7	11	15	21	29	16.4		26,562	*
4		4	-	12	-	0	1.1		No				0	1	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	6	9	14	22	37	22.7		274,672
		3	-	11	-	2	1.0		No					1			0	0	1	1	4	5	10	13	26	37	23.2		406
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	0.4		No					0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	5	8	13	23	44	28.9		8,697	*
3		3	-	13	-	0	0.3		No					0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	4	6	11	22	52	36.6		84,376
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No										1	1	1		10	7	21	58	42.9		98
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	0.1		No					0	0		0	0	0	1	1	2	5	9	21	61	45.5		2,012	*
2		2	-	14	-	0	0.0		No					0		0	0	0	0	0	1	2	4	7	19	68	52.6		18,280	*
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No												0	1	2	6	19	73	59.8		286
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No											0	0	0	1	4	13	82	68.3		2,327	*
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1	Out		No																5	95	95.0		20
0		0	-	16	-	0	Out		No													0		0	1	98	96.8		983

Total:							37.5	%	3.1	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.1	%	10,552,416

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Chicago vs Cincinnati	-1.6+0.0+1.6

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Chicago vs Minnesota	-1.6-0.0+1.6

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

16		16	-	0	-	0	98	2	1	0
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	76	16	4				4
15		15	-	1	-	0	68	17	8	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	62	20	7	4	4	1	0	1				0
14		14	-	2	-	0	53	20	10	6	4	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			0
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	46	20	12	8	5	4	2	2	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0				0
13		13	-	3	-	0	36	20	12	9	6	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0				0	0
		12	-	2	-	2	46	14	13	8	9	2	3	3	3	1
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	29	19	13	9	7	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0		0
12		12	-	4	-	0	23	16	12	10	8	6	5	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		11	-	3	-	2	22	17	13	11	7	7	3	4	5	3	3	1	1	1		1	0	1		0		0	0				0
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	17	14	11	10	8	7	6	5	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11		11	-	5	-	0	12	11	10	9	8	7	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	10	12	10	10	9	6	6	6	5	4	4	2	2	3	3	1	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	8	9	9	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	4	-	3	8	14	8	3	22		11	3	5	3	8	8		3	3								3
10		10	-	6	-	0	6	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	5	7	6	7	8	8	7	5	5	5	5	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	3	5	5	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3	2		5	7	7		9	7	5	7	5	2	2	7	2	5	2	11		5	2	2		2	2				2
9		9	-	7	-	0	2	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
		8	-	6	-	2	2	3	4	5	5	4	6	5	5	5	4	5	4	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	4	4	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	0
		7	-	6	-	3			4		3	4	3		3	6	7	4	3	3	4	4	4	3	3	8	8	7	3	4	1	3	6		1
8		8	-	8	-	0	1	1	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	1	1
		7	-	7	-	2	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	3	3	5	4	4	5	4	4	5	5	4	4	4	4	5	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	1
		6	-	7	-	3		1	1				1	4	1		3	7	4	5	1	3	1	4	11	8	8	3	4	5	5	5		4	1	4	1	1
7		7	-	9	-	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	3	2
		6	-	8	-	2	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	3	3	2
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	5	4	3
		5	-	8	-	3						2	2				2	7	5	2		2	5	5	2	7	7	2	9	5	7	7		2	11	5	5
6		6	-	10	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	6
		5	-	9	-	2			0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	6	6	7	7	6	5
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	9	9	8
		4	-	9	-	3							4						4							7	4		11	7	7	4	4	7	4	18	18	4
5		5	-	11	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
		4	-	10	-	2							0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	1	1	2	3	2	3	3	5	5	6	6	8	9	9	11	12	10
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	5	6	7	8	10	12	14	16
4		4	-	12	-	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	5	6	8	10	12	16	23
		3	-	11	-	2											0		0	0		1	0	1	0	1	2	1	1	3	4	6	4	10	9	16	15	23
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1							0	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	3	3	4	5	8	10	13	18	29
3		3	-	13	-	0			0				0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	6	8	12	20	37
		2	-	12	-	2																			1		2			3		5	1	6	5	12	21	43
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1												0					0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	4	5	8	12	19	46
2		2	-	14	-	0												0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	4	6	10	20	53
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																							0		0	1	1	2	5	12	18	60
1		1	-	15	-	0																						0	0	0	0	1	0	2	3	6	18	68
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1																															5	95
0		0	-	16	-	0																											0	0	0	1	2	97

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3