SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sometimes I
forget the point

Houston Texans Playoff Chances 1

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%

0-0-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Houston vs San Diego	+6.4*+0.1-6.4		+1.1-0.3-1.1		-1.1-0.4+1.1		+0.8+0.1-0.8
Tennessee vs Pittsburgh	-0.5*+0.2+0.5
Indianapolis vs Oakland	-0.4*+0.2+0.4
Kansas City vs Jacksonville	+0.4*+0.4-0.4
Chicago vs Cincinnati	+0.3*+0.2-0.3
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	-0.3*+0.1+0.3

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Houston vs Tennessee	+6.8*-0.4-6.8		+1.1-0.4-1.1		-1.1-0.4+1.1		+0.8+0.0-0.8
Miami vs Indianapolis	+0.4*+0.1-0.4
Oakland vs Jacksonville	+0.4*+0.5-0.4
Buffalo vs Carolina	-0.3*+0.1+0.3
Kansas City vs Dallas	-0.3*+0.3+0.3
San Diego vs Philadelphia	-0.3*+0.2+0.3
Denver vs NY Giants	-0.3*+0.3+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Houston finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

16		16	-	0	-	0	In		96.8	%	100				0												No		965
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	In		88.2		100																No		17
15		15	-	1	-	0	99.9	%	67.9		97	0			2	0	0			0							No		2,398
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	In		62.8		97	0			2	1											No		288
14		14	-	2	-	0	99.3		51.8		93	1	0		4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0					No		18,461	*
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	98.9		43.8		91	2			5	2	0	0	0								No		2,075	*
13		13	-	3	-	0	97.1		36.6		83	5	0		7	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0			No		84,506
		12	-	2	-	2	97.3		43.8		83	4			6	4	1	1			1						No		112
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	95.9		29.1		76	8	0		9	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0				No		8,847	*
12		12	-	4	-	0	91.9		22.4		62	14	1	0	10	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	No		276,152
		11	-	3	-	2	94.7		21.1		64	14	1		10	6	3	1	0	0	0						No		436
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	88.5		16.5		49	19	2	0	11	7	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.0	%	26,651	*
11		11	-	5	-	0	82.3		12.3		33	24	6	0	11	8	6	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.0		658,575
		10	-	4	-	2	84.8		11.8		35	25	6	0	12	7	5	3	3	2	1	1	1	0			No		1,200
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	76.4		8.0		20	25	9	1	12	9	7	5	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0.0		58,708
		9	-	4	-	3	73.5		11.8		26	24	6	3	9	6	6	9	3	3	3	3					No		34
10		10	-	6	-	0	67.9		5.7		10	21	14	3	11	9	8	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0.0		1,208,287
		9	-	5	-	2	70.0		5.6		10	21	14	2	11	11	8	6	5	3	3	2	1	1	0	0	No		2,349	*
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	59.9		3.3		4	14	16	5	11	10	9	7	7	5	4	3	2	2	1	0	0.1		97,148
		8	-	5	-	3	57.8		4.4		4	13	13	11	7	9	7	4	16	9		7					No		45
9		9	-	7	-	0	50.8		2.3		1	8	14	8	9	9	9	8	7	6	5	5	4	3	2	1	0.2		1,727,167
		8	-	6	-	2	49.5		1.8		1	8	14	8	9	10	10	9	8	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	0.2		3,533	*
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	41.8		1.2		0	3	11	11	8	9	9	9	8	8	7	6	5	4	2	1	0.3		125,102
		7	-	6	-	3	38.1		3.2		2		10	10	6	11	6	16	3	10	3	10	3	8	3		No		63
8		8	-	8	-	0	33.5		0.7		0	1	7	11	6	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	5	4	2	0.7		1,943,316
		7	-	7	-	2	31.8		0.7		0	1	7	10	6	8	8	9	9	9	8	7	7	6	3	2	0.9		4,000	*
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	25.3		0.3		0	0	3	10	5	6	7	8	9	9	9	9	8	7	6	4	1.2		124,534
		6	-	7	-	3	22.5		No				6	10	4	3	13	14	7	6	11	6	10	6	3	3	1.4		71
7		7	-	9	-	0	19.0		0.2		0	0	2	9	4	5	6	7	8	9	9	9	9	9	8	6	2.3		1,726,488
		6	-	8	-	2	17.0		0.1			0	1	8	3	5	7	7	9	9	10	9	10	9	8	5	1.9		3,529
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	13.0		0.0			0	0	6	2	4	5	6	7	9	9	10	11	11	10	8	3.3		97,219
		5	-	8	-	3	14.0		No					2	4	8	2	8		24	10	4	10	12	10	6	4.0		50
6		6	-	10	-	0	9.1		0.0			0	0	5	2	3	4	5	6	7	9	10	11	13	13	12	5.7		1,208,889
		5	-	9	-	2	7.1		0.0				0	4	1	2	4	4	6	8	10	10	11	14	13	11	5.2		2,329	*
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	5.4		0.0				0	3	1	2	3	4	5	7	8	10	12	14	16	17	8.1		58,106
		4	-	9	-	3	9.4		No					3		6	3		6	6	3	19	16	13	19	6	No		32
5		5	-	11	-	0	3.6		0.0				0	2	1	1	2	3	4	5	7	9	11	15	19	23	12.2		660,128
		4	-	10	-	2	2.6		No					1	1	1	1	3	4	6	6	8	13	15	21	21	10.7		1,196	*
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	1.9		No				0	1	0	1	1	2	3	4	5	8	11	15	21	29	16.6		26,376	*
4		4	-	12	-	0	1.1		No					1	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	6	9	14	22	37	22.5		275,296
		3	-	11	-	2	0.5		No					0		0	0	1	1	2	3	9	8	15	24	37	20.1		438
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	0.4		No					0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	5	8	14	22	44	29.5		8,685	*
3		3	-	13	-	0	0.2		No					0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	6	11	22	52	36.4		84,604
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No												3	5	8	16	15	53	35.6		118
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	0.1		No					0		0	0		0	0	1	2	5	10	22	58	42.4		2,006	*
2		2	-	14	-	0	0.0		No					0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	7	19	68	51.9		18,188	*
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	0.4		No					0								1		3	16	79	62.9		280
1		1	-	15	-	0	0.1		No					0		0	0			0	0	1	1	4	14	81	67.9		2,402	*
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1	Out		No														10		24	67	61.9		21
0		0	-	16	-	0	Out		No															1	2	98	95.9		996

Total:							37.5	%	3.1	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.1	%	10,552,416

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Houston vs San Diego	-1.6-0.1+1.6

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Houston vs Tennessee	-1.6+0.0+1.6

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

16		16	-	0	-	0	97	3	0	0
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	88	12
15		15	-	1	-	0	68	17	6	5	2	1	0	0	0	0				0	0	0
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	63	17	8	7	2	1	1	1	0		0
14		14	-	2	-	0	52	20	10	7	4	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	44	22	13	7	4	4	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13		13	-	3	-	0	37	20	12	9	6	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0
		12	-	2	-	2	44	13	11	9	10	4	3	2	2	1		1	1									1
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	29	17	13	10	7	6	4	3	3	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			0
12		12	-	4	-	0	22	16	12	10	8	6	5	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		11	-	3	-	2	21	17	12	9	9	8	6	5	3	2	2	3	1	0	1	0	0	0
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	17	14	12	10	8	7	6	5	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0
11		11	-	5	-	0	12	11	10	9	8	7	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	12	13	11	11	8	7	6	5	5	3	4	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	8	9	9	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	4	-	3	12	9	9	21	6	6			6	3	6		6	3	3		3			3	3		3
10		10	-	6	-	0	6	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	6	6	8	7	7	7	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	3	5	5	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3	4	7	2	4	4	11	7	2	2	2	7	4	2	4	4	9	4	2	9		2	2				2
9		9	-	7	-	0	2	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
		8	-	6	-	2	2	2	3	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	3	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	1	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	4	5	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	0
		7	-	6	-	3	3	3	5	2	2	3	3	2	8	2	3	5	3	8	3	6	5	2	2	5	3		3	5	2	6	3	2	3
8		8	-	8	-	0	1	1	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	1	1
		7	-	7	-	2	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	5	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	1	1	1
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	1
		6	-	7	-	3				3		1	1	1	1	4	7	1	4	13	1	1	6	4	4	4	3	7	10	4	4		4	4	1		1	1
7		7	-	9	-	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	3	2
		6	-	8	-	2	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	4	5	6	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	3	2
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	5	5	4	3
		5	-	8	-	3						2			2		2		2		10	2	10		4	6	8	6	2	4	4	8	10	10	2	2		4
6		6	-	10	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	6
		5	-	9	-	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	4	4	3	4	4	5	6	5	6	7	6	7	7	6	6	5
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	9	9	8
		4	-	9	-	3												3		9		3		3	6	3	6	6		3	9	9	3	9	16	6	3
5		5	-	11	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
		4	-	10	-	2			0		0			0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	3	2	4	4	4	6	6	6	7	9	10	9	12	11
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	5	6	7	8	10	12	14	17
4		4	-	12	-	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	5	6	8	10	12	16	23
		3	-	11	-	2												0		0	0		0	1	1	1	2	1	4	2	5	3	7	8	12	12	20	20
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1							0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	6	7	10	13	18	29
3		3	-	13	-	0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	6	9	13	20	36
		2	-	12	-	2																	1						2	2		7	6	6	8	19	15	36
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1												0		0			0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	3	4	5	8	13	20	42
2		2	-	14	-	0										0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	4	6	10	21	52
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																			0				0	0	0		1	2	4	6	22	63
1		1	-	15	-	0													0					0	0			0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	7	19	68
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1																												5	10		24	62
0		0	-	16	-	0																												0	0	1	3	96

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3