Carolina Panthers Playoff Chances 1

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%

0-0-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Seattle vs Carolina	-6.3*-0.3+6.3		-1.1-0.3+1.1		+1.1-0.4-1.1		-0.8+0.0+0.8
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	+0.7*-0.1-0.7						+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Chicago vs Cincinnati	-0.3*-0.1+0.3

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Buffalo vs Carolina	-6.0*+0.3+6.0		-1.1-0.3+1.1		+1.1-0.4-1.1		-0.7+0.1+0.7
Atlanta vs St. Louis	-0.4*+0.4+0.4
Denver vs NY Giants	+0.4*-0.2-0.4
San Diego vs Philadelphia	+0.3*-0.4-0.3
Kansas City vs Dallas	+0.3*+0.3-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Carolina finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

16		16	-	0	-	0	In		97.0	%	100					0											No		958
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	In		60.0		93				7												No		15
15		15	-	1	-	0	99.8	%	67.3		98	0			2	0	0	0	0	0							No		2,411	*
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	In		61.4		98				2												No		272
14		14	-	2	-	0	99.2		52.2		93	1	0		4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0				No		18,100	*
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	98.5		45.4		89	2			5	2	1	0	0	0							No		2,014
13		13	-	3	-	0	97.1		36.3		83	5	0		7	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		No		84,669
		12	-	2	-	2	95.9		32.0		81	5			7	2	1	1		2							No		97
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	95.9		29.0		76	8	0		8	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0			No		8,821	*
12		12	-	4	-	0	91.8		22.5		61	14	1	0	10	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0	%	274,352
		11	-	3	-	2	94.9		21.3		65	14	1		10	5	2	1	1	0	0	0					No		447
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	88.5		16.6		49	20	2	0	11	7	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.0		26,262	*
11		11	-	5	-	0	82.3		12.3		32	24	6	0	11	8	6	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.0		658,983
		10	-	4	-	2	82.9		10.2		34	24	6	0	11	7	6	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	No		1,188
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	76.4		8.0		20	25	9	1	12	9	7	5	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0.0		58,346
		9	-	4	-	3	73.5		2.9		6	26	18		15	9	12	6	3		3				3		No		34
10		10	-	6	-	0	68.0		5.8		10	21	14	3	11	9	8	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0.0		1,208,149
		9	-	5	-	2	68.0		5.6		10	21	13	3	11	10	8	7	6	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	No		2,291
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	60.0		3.3		4	14	16	5	11	10	9	8	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	0	0.1		96,820
		8	-	5	-	3	53.3		No		7	9	24	2	2	9	13	7	4	9	4	4	4				No		45
9		9	-	7	-	0	50.8		2.3		1	8	14	8	9	9	9	8	7	6	5	5	4	3	2	1	0.2		1,728,628
		8	-	6	-	2	51.1		1.8		1	9	14	8	9	10	9	9	7	6	5	4	4	3	1	1	0.1		3,564
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	41.8		1.1		0	3	11	11	8	9	9	9	8	8	7	6	5	4	2	1	0.3		125,337
		7	-	6	-	3	40.8		1.4			6	7	11	8	8	8	10	7	10	8	4	6	4		1	1.4		71
8		8	-	8	-	0	33.4		0.7		0	1	7	11	6	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	5	4	2	0.7		1,943,489
		7	-	7	-	2	32.0		0.4		0	1	6	10	7	7	9	10	9	8	9	7	5	5	4	2	0.6		3,986
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	25.2		0.3		0	0	3	11	5	6	7	8	9	9	9	9	8	7	6	3	1.1		125,009
		6	-	7	-	3	23.8		1.3			1	3	10	8	3	10	11	9	9	3	8	10	5	6	6	1.3		80
7		7	-	9	-	0	19.0		0.2		0	0	2	9	4	5	6	7	8	9	9	9	9	9	8	6	2.3		1,727,890
		6	-	8	-	2	17.6		0.1			0	1	7	4	5	7	8	8	9	10	10	10	9	8	5	1.7		3,547
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	12.9		0.1			0	0	6	2	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	11	10	8	3.4		97,582
		5	-	8	-	3	12.7		No					5	5	2	5	4	11	5	2	11	13	13	16	7	3.6		55
6		6	-	10	-	0	9.1		0.0			0	0	5	2	3	4	5	6	7	9	10	11	13	13	12	5.7		1,208,695
		5	-	9	-	2	7.3		No				0	4	1	2	4	5	7	7	10	11	12	12	13	12	5.5		2,358	*
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	5.3		0.0				0	3	1	2	2	4	5	6	8	10	12	14	17	16	8.1		58,223
		4	-	9	-	3	Out		No									3	8	3	8	11	8	16	24	21	10.5		38
5		5	-	11	-	0	3.6		0.0				0	2	1	1	2	3	4	5	7	9	11	15	19	23	12.2		659,471
		4	-	10	-	2	3.2		No					2	0	1	1	2	4	6	7	8	12	16	19	21	11.1		1,221	*
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	1.9		No				0	1	0	1	1	2	3	4	6	8	11	15	21	29	16.4		26,660	*
4		4	-	12	-	0	1.1		No				0	1	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	6	9	14	22	36	22.5		274,930
		3	-	11	-	2	1.0		No					1		0	0	1	1	3	3	8	9	15	23	35	20.0		404
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	0.4		No					0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	5	8	13	24	44	28.5		8,599	*
3		3	-	13	-	0	0.3		No					0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	6	11	22	52	36.6		84,406
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No										1	2	4	4	8	11	25	46	29.4		102
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	0.0		No						0				0	1	1	3	4	10	22	60	44.3		2,049	*
2		2	-	14	-	0	0.1		No					0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	8	19	67	51.7		18,109	*
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No												0	1	1	4	17	77	58.2		273
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No											0	0	0	1	3	14	81	67.5		2,376
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1	Out		No														5	5	5	86	68.2		22
0		0	-	16	-	0	Out		No													0	0	0	1	99	97.4		968

Total:							37.5	%	3.1	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.1	%	10,552,416

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Seattle vs Carolina	+1.6-0.0-1.6

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Buffalo vs Carolina	+1.6-0.1-1.6

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

16		16	-	0	-	0	97	2	1	0	0
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	60	33			7
15		15	-	1	-	0	67	18	8	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0				0			0
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	61	18	10	6	3	0	0			0				0
14		14	-	2	-	0	52	20	10	6	4	3	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	45	19	13	8	4	3	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0				0
13		13	-	3	-	0	36	20	12	9	6	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		12	-	2	-	2	32	27	7	6	9	5	4	2		1	1	1	1	1					1	1
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	29	19	13	10	7	5	4	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						0
12		12	-	4	-	0	23	16	12	10	8	6	5	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		11	-	3	-	2	21	16	15	11	10	5	4	4	3	3	1	2	2	1	0	0	0	0					0				0
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	17	14	11	10	8	7	6	5	4	4	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11		11	-	5	-	0	12	11	10	9	8	7	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	10	11	9	10	9	7	7	5	5	4	4	3	3	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0		0	0
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	8	9	9	8	8	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	4	-	3	3	6	12	3	9	9	12	6	3	6		6		6	3	6	6					3			3
10		10	-	6	-	0	6	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	6	6	6	7	8	5	7	5	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	3	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3		4	7	7	7	2	9	4	7		7	4	2	11	2	9		2		4		7	2	2
9		9	-	7	-	0	2	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
		8	-	6	-	2	2	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	3	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	0
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	1	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	4	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	0
		7	-	6	-	3	1			7	3	7	3	4	3	4	6	4	6		4	7	4	4	4	4	6		4	1	4	4		1		1		1
8		8	-	8	-	0	1	1	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	1	1
		7	-	7	-	2	0	1	1	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	5	5	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	1	1	1
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	1
		6	-	7	-	3	1		1		3	3	1	3	4	3	4	3	5	4	8	6	4	3	4	4	3	1	5	6		8		4	5	6	1	1
7		7	-	9	-	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	3	2
		6	-	8	-	2	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	5	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	2
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	3
		5	-	8	-	3					4		2		2	5			4	5	2	4	4	4	2	4	5			2	7	4	9	7	11	5	5	4
6		6	-	10	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	6
		5	-	9	-	2		0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	2	3	4	4	3	5	5	6	6	6	7	6	6	7	7	6	6
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	8	8	8	9	8
		4	-	9	-	3															3	5		3	3	3	8	3	5		5		13	3	18	11	8	11
5		5	-	11	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
		4	-	10	-	2					0	0		0		0	1	1	1	0	2	1	2	2	3	3	4	5	4	4	7	6	6	10	9	11	10	11
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	4	4	5	6	7	8	10	11	14	16
4		4	-	12	-	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	5	6	8	10	12	16	23
		3	-	11	-	2							0		0			0	0			0	1	1	0	1	2	1	3	2	5	4	6	9	11	12	18	20
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1						0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	5	7	10	14	19	28
3		3	-	13	-	0			0	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	6	9	13	19	37
		2	-	12	-	2																		1	1		2	4	2	2	3	4	1	5	14	13	20	29
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1																0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	3	5	8	13	20	44
2		2	-	14	-	0												0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	4	6	10	20	52
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																				0				0		1	1	1	4	11	23	58
1		1	-	15	-	0																							0	0	0	0	1	2	4	8	18	67
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1																										5	5				23	68
0		0	-	16	-	0																			0								0	0	0	0	2	97

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3