Kansas City Chiefs Playoff Chances 1

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Kansas City vs Jacksonville	+6.4*-0.0-6.4		+1.1-0.4-1.1		-1.1-0.2+1.1		+0.8+0.0-0.8
Indianapolis vs Oakland	+0.5*+0.1-0.5
Houston vs San Diego	+0.4*-0.2-0.4
Denver vs Baltimore	-0.4*+0.0+0.4
Chicago vs Cincinnati	+0.3*-0.0-0.3
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	-0.3*+0.1+0.3

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Kansas City vs Dallas	+6.0*-0.4-6.0		+1.1-0.4-1.1		-1.1-0.4+1.1		+0.7+0.0-0.7
San Diego vs Philadelphia	-0.8*-0.2+0.8						-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Denver vs NY Giants	-0.7*+0.3+0.7						-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Oakland vs Jacksonville	-0.4*+0.0+0.4
Buffalo vs Carolina	-0.3*+0.1+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Kansas City finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

16		16	-	0	-	0	In		97.1	%	100				0												No		965
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	In		88.9		94				6												No		18
15		15	-	1	-	0	99.9	%	67.3		98	0			2	0	0			0							No		2,317	*
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	In		61.1		96	0			3	1											No		314
14		14	-	2	-	0	99.2		52.6		93	1			4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0				No		18,279	*
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	98.7		42.8		91	2			5	2	1	0	0	0	0						No		2,026
13		13	-	3	-	0	97.2		36.4		83	5	0	0	7	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	No		84,622
		12	-	2	-	2	99.1		31.5		82	3	1		6	7	1										No		111
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	95.4		27.7		75	8	0		8	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0			No		8,873	*
12		12	-	4	-	0	92.0		22.5		62	14	1	0	10	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	No		274,418
		11	-	3	-	2	91.4		21.4		61	15	1		10	4	4	2	2	0	0						No		420
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	88.5		16.3		49	20	2	0	11	7	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	No		26,569	*
11		11	-	5	-	0	82.3		12.2		32	24	6	0	11	8	6	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.0	%	659,710
		10	-	4	-	2	82.9		10.8		32	24	6	0	13	8	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0		No		1,191
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	76.5		8.2		20	25	9	1	12	9	7	5	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0.0		58,070
		9	-	4	-	3	78.9		7.9		18	16	11		18	16	3	5	8	3			3				No		38
10		10	-	6	-	0	68.0		5.7		10	21	14	3	11	9	8	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0.0		1,208,795
		9	-	5	-	2	67.1		5.2		9	22	13	3	10	9	9	6	5	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	No		2,370
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	60.2		3.4		4	15	16	5	11	10	9	8	6	5	4	3	2	1	1	0	0.1		97,090
		8	-	5	-	3	58.2		3.6		4	11	11	5	13	15	11	9	4	5	4	4	4			2	No		55
9		9	-	7	-	0	50.8		2.3		1	8	14	8	9	9	9	8	7	6	6	5	4	3	2	1	0.2		1,727,146
		8	-	6	-	2	50.0		1.7		1	8	13	8	9	10	10	9	8	7	5	4	4	2	1	0	0.1		3,629
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	41.8		1.1		0	3	11	10	8	9	9	9	8	8	7	6	5	4	2	1	0.3		125,430
		7	-	6	-	3	35.9		1.3			3	8	14	8	4	12	13	6	6	8	8	5	3	3	1	No		78
8		8	-	8	-	0	33.4		0.7		0	1	7	11	6	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	5	4	2	0.7		1,944,810
		7	-	7	-	2	31.0		0.5		0	1	7	10	6	7	8	9	9	9	9	7	7	5	4	2	0.5		4,058	*
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	25.2		0.3		0	0	3	10	5	6	7	8	9	9	9	9	8	7	6	3	1.2		124,852
		6	-	7	-	3	26.7		No				5	11	5	5	5	9	7	12	8	11	9	7	4	1	1.3		75
7		7	-	9	-	0	19.0		0.2		0	0	2	9	4	5	6	7	8	9	9	9	9	9	8	6	2.3		1,726,425
		6	-	8	-	2	18.5		No			0	2	8	4	5	6	8	8	9	9	9	10	9	7	6	2.1		3,509
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	12.8		0.1			0	0	6	2	4	5	6	7	9	9	10	11	11	10	8	3.4		96,487
		5	-	8	-	3	9.5		No					6	2	2	6	6	5	6	5	10	16	13	8	16	7.9		63
6		6	-	10	-	0	9.1		0.0		0	0	0	5	2	3	4	5	6	7	9	10	11	13	13	12	5.7		1,207,856
		5	-	9	-	2	8.7		No				0	5	1	3	4	5	7	8	8	10	13	13	13	11	5.1		2,378
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	5.4		0.0				0	3	1	2	3	4	5	6	8	10	12	14	16	17	8.1		58,349
		4	-	9	-	3	12.5		No					9		3	6	3	3	9		6	13	19	6	22	9.4		32
5		5	-	11	-	0	3.6		0.0				0	2	1	1	2	3	4	5	7	9	11	15	19	23	12.2		659,965
		4	-	10	-	2	3.0		No					2	0	1	1	2	4	5	8	9	10	17	20	20	11.0		1,183
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	1.9		No				0	1	0	1	1	2	3	4	6	8	11	15	21	29	16.4		26,248	*
4		4	-	12	-	0	1.1		No					1	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	6	9	14	22	36	22.5		275,751
		3	-	11	-	2	0.7		No					1			1	1	0	2	2	5	11	14	26	37	21.9		457
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	0.5		No					0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	5	8	13	24	44	28.3		8,825	*
3		3	-	13	-	0	0.2		No					0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	6	11	22	52	36.4		84,446
		2	-	12	-	2	1.0		No						1				1		3	3	3	9	27	52	36.5		96
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	Out		No								0	0	0	1	1	2	4	9	22	61	43.6		2,091	*
2		2	-	14	-	0	0.0		No					0		0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	7	19	68	52.5		18,214	*
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No											0	0	0	3	5	14	77	63.0		300
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No								0			0	0	0	1	4	14	80	67.7		2,424	*
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1	Out		No																11	89	83.3		18
0		0	-	16	-	0	Out		No															0	1	99	97.1		970

Total:							37.5	%	3.1	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.1	%	10,552,416

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Kansas City vs Jacksonville	-1.6-0.0+1.6

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Kansas City vs Dallas	-1.6-0.0+1.6

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

16		16	-	0	-	0	97	2	1		0
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	89	6		6
15		15	-	1	-	0	67	19	7	3	2	1	1	0	0	0			0	0	0
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	61	19	7	4	5	1	0	1	1		0
14		14	-	2	-	0	53	20	10	6	4	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	43	23	13	7	5	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0
13		13	-	3	-	0	36	20	13	9	6	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0
		12	-	2	-	2	32	23	12	11	6	6	5	2		2	1		1
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	28	19	13	11	7	5	4	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12		12	-	4	-	0	23	16	12	10	8	6	5	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		11	-	3	-	2	21	14	15	11	8	5	5	6	3	2	1	1	2	1	1	1	0	0		0	0	0
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	16	14	12	10	8	7	6	5	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11		11	-	5	-	0	12	11	10	9	8	7	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	11	13	9	8	8	8	6	6	5	5	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0			0
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	8	9	8	8	8	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	4	-	3	8	5	13	13	3		5	13	3	13		5	5	3	3		3				3							3
10		10	-	6	-	0	6	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	5	6	6	7	7	6	6	5	6	6	4	4	4	4	4	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	3	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3	4	4		5	4	11	2		13	5	5	5	4	7	13		2	2		2	5			2		2	2		2
9		9	-	7	-	0	2	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
		8	-	6	-	2	2	3	4	4	4	4	5	4	5	5	6	5	4	4	5	4	4	4	4	4	3	2	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	1	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	0
		7	-	6	-	3	1		3	3	3	1	5	6	5	1	6	6	3	9	1	9	3	1	3	6	1	4	5	4	3	3	3		1		1
8		8	-	8	-	0	1	1	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	1	1
		7	-	7	-	2	0	1	1	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	4	4	4	5	5	5	4	4	3	4	3	3	3	2	2	1	1
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	4	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	1
		6	-	7	-	3			1	4	1		1	4	3	1	3	5	3	7	5	7	3	5	3	1	8	5	9	3	3	1	8	1		1	1	1
7		7	-	9	-	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	3	2
		6	-	8	-	2		0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	5	5	4	4	4	3	2
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	5	5	3
		5	-	8	-	3												2	2	3	3	6	2	6	3	3	6	10	2	10		2	10	5	11	6	2	8
6		6	-	10	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	6
		5	-	9	-	2		0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	2	1	1	2	3	2	3	3	3	4	3	5	5	5	5	5	7	7	6	6	7	6	5
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	9	9	8
		4	-	9	-	3					3	3					3		3		3			9	3	3	3		3	9		6	13		6	9	9	9
5		5	-	11	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
		4	-	10	-	2					0	0		0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	8	9	10	11	11	11
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	5	6	7	8	10	12	14	16
4		4	-	12	-	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	5	6	8	10	12	16	23
		3	-	11	-	2											0	0	0	1		0		1	1	1	1	2	2	4	4	4	5	7	10	16	19	22
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1		0	0						0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	3	3	4	5	7	10	13	19	28
3		3	-	13	-	0			0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	6	9	13	20	36
		2	-	12	-	2																1		1			2			4	3	2	3	8	8	13	18	36
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1															0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	3	5	7	11	23	44
2		2	-	14	-	0									0					0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	4	6	10	20	52
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																				0				1	1	2	2	2	3	9	17	63
1		1	-	15	-	0																			0	0	0			0	0	0	1	2	3	7	19	68
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1																														6	11	83
0		0	-	16	-	0																											0		0	1	2	97

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3