Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Jacksonville Jaguars Playoff Chances 1

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%

0-0-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Kansas City vs Jacksonville	-6.3*+0.2+6.3		-1.1-0.2+1.1		+1.1-0.3-1.1		-0.8+0.0+0.8
Houston vs San Diego	-0.4+0.7+0.4
Tennessee vs Pittsburgh	-0.4*-0.1+0.4
Indianapolis vs Oakland	-0.4*+0.0+0.4
Chicago vs Cincinnati	+0.3*-0.2-0.3
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	-0.3*-0.0+0.3

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Oakland vs Jacksonville	-6.3-0.7+6.3		-1.1-0.5+1.1		+1.1-0.4-1.1		-0.8-0.0+0.8
Miami vs Indianapolis	+0.4*+0.2-0.4
Buffalo vs Carolina	-0.3*-0.0+0.3
Denver vs NY Giants	-0.3*-0.2+0.3
San Diego vs Philadelphia	-0.3*+0.0+0.3
Kansas City vs Dallas	-0.3*+0.2+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Jacksonville finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

16		16	-	0	-	0	In		97.1	%	100				0												No		966
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	In		73.3		93					7											No		15
15		15	-	1	-	0	99.9	%	67.1		98	0			1	0	0										No		2,513	*
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	In		64.8		96				4												No		293
14		14	-	2	-	0	99.2		52.2		93	1	0		4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			No		18,277	*
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	98.7		45.4		90	2			6	2	1	0	0		0						No		2,044	*
13		13	-	3	-	0	97.1		36.7		83	5	0		7	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		No		84,551
		12	-	2	-	2	97.8		35.5		81	6			9	2	1			1							No		93
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	95.5		28.9		75	8	0		8	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0		0		No		8,809	*
12		12	-	4	-	0	92.0		22.6		62	14	1	0	10	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	No		275,540
		11	-	3	-	2	92.1		21.5		62	13	0		11	6	3	2	2	1		0					No		428
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	88.3		16.7		49	20	2	0	11	7	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	No		26,614	*
11		11	-	5	-	0	82.3		12.2		33	24	6	0	11	8	6	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.0	%	658,625
		10	-	4	-	2	84.2		12.7		33	25	6	0	13	7	6	4	3	1	1	1	0	0	0		No		1,170	*
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	76.6		8.4		20	26	9	1	12	9	7	5	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0.0		57,994
		9	-	4	-	3	70.8		4.2		21	21	13		8	8	13	8	4			4					No		24
10		10	-	6	-	0	68.0		5.7		10	21	14	3	11	9	8	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0.0		1,207,681
		9	-	5	-	2	68.3		4.6		9	22	14	3	11	9	7	7	5	4	3	2	2	1	0	0	No		2,287
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	60.0		3.4		4	14	16	5	11	10	9	7	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	0	0.0		97,644
		8	-	5	-	3	48.3		3.4		3	9	10	9	9	9	14	9	9	12	3	2	2	2			No		58
9		9	-	7	-	0	50.8		2.3		1	8	14	8	9	9	9	8	7	6	6	5	4	3	2	1	0.2		1,728,235
		8	-	6	-	2	51.5		1.7		2	8	15	8	9	9	9	9	8	7	5	4	3	2	1	0	0.1		3,619	*
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	41.7		1.1		0	3	11	11	8	9	9	9	8	8	7	6	5	4	2	1	0.3		125,198
		7	-	6	-	3	44.4		1.0		1	5	4	19	5	10	10	13	14	6	1	4	1	2	3	1	No		99	*
8		8	-	8	-	0	33.5		0.7		0	1	7	11	6	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	5	4	2	0.7		1,941,839
		7	-	7	-	2	32.2		0.4		0	1	6	10	7	7	9	9	9	9	7	7	6	5	4	2	0.5		3,890	*
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	25.3		0.3		0	0	3	10	5	6	7	8	9	9	9	9	8	7	6	3	1.1		124,522
		6	-	7	-	3	22.1		No					14	5	3	6	6	10	12	5	10	13	8	5	1	1.3		77
7		7	-	9	-	0	19.0		0.2		0	0	2	9	4	5	6	7	8	9	9	9	9	9	8	6	2.3		1,729,674
		6	-	8	-	2	17.4		0.1			0	1	8	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	9	10	8	5	1.9		3,540	*
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	12.8		0.1			0	0	6	2	4	5	6	7	8	10	10	11	11	10	8	3.4		97,294
		5	-	8	-	3	10.5		No					4	7		2	5	9	5	18	9	11	5	14	12	1.8		57
6		6	-	10	-	0	9.1		0.0		0	0	0	5	2	3	4	5	6	7	9	10	11	13	13	12	5.7		1,207,383
		5	-	9	-	2	7.8		No				0	4	1	3	4	5	7	8	9	10	12	12	14	12	5.1		2,350	*
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	5.3		0.0				0	3	1	2	3	4	5	6	8	10	12	14	16	17	8.2		58,520
		4	-	9	-	3	Out		No										4	7	22	15	4	19	15	15	7.4		27
5		5	-	11	-	0	3.5		0.0				0	2	1	1	2	3	4	5	7	9	11	15	19	23	12.3		660,569
		4	-	10	-	2	2.7		No					1	0	1	2	2	4	5	7	9	11	14	21	23	11.4		1,203
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	1.7		No					1	0	0	1	2	2	4	5	8	11	15	21	29	16.4		26,073	*
4		4	-	12	-	0	1.1		No				0	1	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	6	9	14	22	36	22.6		275,027
		3	-	11	-	2	1.0		No					0		0	1	1	2	2	4	7	10	15	21	36	22.4		415
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	0.4		No					0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	5	8	13	23	44	28.0		8,662
3		3	-	13	-	0	0.3		No					0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	4	6	11	22	52	36.4		84,314
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No											2		2	9	14	27	46	31.8		107
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	0.0		No					0			0	0	0	1	1	3	4	10	20	60	44.1		2,067	*
2		2	-	14	-	0	0.1		No					0		0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	7	19	68	52.8		18,292	*
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No												0	1	1	6	16	76	64.4		298
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No								0					0	2	3	14	81	68.8		2,437	*
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1	Out		No														6		17	78	61.1		18
0		0	-	16	-	0	Out		No															0	1	99	97.7		984

Total:							37.5	%	3.1	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.1	%	10,552,416

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Kansas City vs Jacksonville	+1.6-0.1-1.6

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Oakland vs Jacksonville	+1.6+0.1-1.6

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

16		16	-	0	-	0	97	2	0	1	0
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	73	7	13			7
15		15	-	1	-	0	67	19	8	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	65	15	9	7	2	1	1	0		0
14		14	-	2	-	0	52	20	11	6	4	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0								0
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	45	21	12	6	5	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
13		13	-	3	-	0	37	19	12	9	6	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			0
		12	-	2	-	2	35	23	12	6	9	1	5	2	1		1	1	1	1			1
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	29	18	12	10	8	5	4	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12		12	-	4	-	0	23	16	12	10	8	6	5	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		11	-	3	-	2	21	18	13	8	8	4	7	7	3	2	2	2	1	0	1		1	0		0	0						0
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	17	14	12	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11		11	-	5	-	0	12	11	10	9	8	7	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	13	11	10	10	7	7	7	6	5	5	4	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0		0
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	8	9	9	8	8	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	4	-	3	4	4	8	8	4	4	17	4	4		13		4	8		4	4			8
10		10	-	6	-	0	6	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	5	6	7	8	7	7	6	5	5	4	5	4	3	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	3	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3	3	7	5	3	2	3	5	5	7		9		7	5	9	5	2	3	2	7	3		2		2		2		2
9		9	-	7	-	0	2	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
		8	-	6	-	2	2	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	1	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	5	4	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	0
		7	-	6	-	3	1	6	3	1	3	3	3	3	3	8	5	5	6	4	6	6	3	6	6	6	2		1	1	4	1		1		1	1
8		8	-	8	-	0	1	1	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	1	1
		7	-	7	-	2	0	1	1	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	5	4	4	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	4	2	2	3	2	2	1	0
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	4	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	1
		6	-	7	-	3		1	1				3	3	5	1	1	1	1	3	8	4	3	3	5	5	10	4	6	6	6	5	3	3	4		3	1
7		7	-	9	-	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	3	2
		6	-	8	-	2	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	4	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	4	6	5	5	5	4	5	5	4	4	3	2
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	5	5	5	3
		5	-	8	-	3							2	2	2		2	2	2		4	2	5		4	7	5	4	5		9	9	7	4	9	12	4	2
6		6	-	10	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	6
		5	-	9	-	2			0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	3	2	3	3	3	4	5	4	5	5	5	6	7	6	7	7	7	6	5
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	8	8	9	9	8
		4	-	9	-	3																			7		15	4	11	11		7	4	22	7		4	7
5		5	-	11	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
		4	-	10	-	2					0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	2	3	4	4	4	5	6	7	8	10	11	11	11
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	5	6	7	8	10	12	14	16
4		4	-	12	-	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	5	6	8	10	12	16	23
		3	-	11	-	2													0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	4	5	4	6	8	8	13	17	22
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1								0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	3	3	4	5	7	10	13	19	28
3		3	-	13	-	0			0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	6	9	12	20	36
		2	-	12	-	2																			1			1		1	1	3	8	10	6	18	20	32
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1																	0		0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	4	5	7	11	22	44
2		2	-	14	-	0										0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	4	6	10	20	53
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																				0			0	0		1	1	4	5	5	19	64
1		1	-	15	-	0																			0				0	0	0	0	1	2	3	8	17	69
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1																										6				6	28	61
0		0	-	16	-	0																											0			1	2	98

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3