Oakland Raiders Playoff Chances 1

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%

0-0-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Indianapolis vs Oakland	-6.3*-0.5+6.3		-1.1-0.3+1.1		+1.1*-0.2-1.1		-0.8-0.0+0.8
Kansas City vs Jacksonville	-0.5*+0.3+0.5
Denver vs Baltimore	-0.4*+0.2+0.4
Houston vs San Diego	+0.4*+0.3-0.4
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	-0.3*+0.2+0.3
Chicago vs Cincinnati	+0.3*+0.1-0.3

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Oakland vs Jacksonville	+6.3*-0.2-6.3		+1.1-0.3-1.1		-1.1-0.3+1.1		+0.8+0.0-0.8
Denver vs NY Giants	-0.8*+0.3+0.8						-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Kansas City vs Dallas	-0.7*-0.3+0.7						-0.1*-0.0+0.1
San Diego vs Philadelphia	-0.7*+0.2+0.7						-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Buffalo vs Carolina	-0.3*-0.0+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Oakland finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

15.5	-16						In		96.4	%	100																No		990	*
15		15	-	1	-	0	99.6	%	67.9		98	0			1	0	0	0		0		0					No		2,416
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	99.3		57.8		96	0			2	1			0	0							No		287
14		14	-	2	-	0	99.2		51.9		93	1			4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0				No		17,938
		13	-	1	-	2	93.3		33.3		80				13		7										No		15
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	99.0		44.5		91	1			5	2	1	0	0		0						No		2,079
13		13	-	3	-	0	97.2		36.4		83	5	0		7	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	No		84,756
		12	-	2	-	2	In		41.7		89	3			7	1											No		96
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	95.7		28.8		75	8	0		8	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0		No		8,868	*
12		12	-	4	-	0	91.9		22.6		62	14	1	0	10	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0	%	275,113
		11	-	3	-	2	93.5		20.3		66	13	1		9	3	2	1	1	1	0	0					No		413
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	88.4		16.1		49	20	2	0	11	7	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0		No		26,357	*
11		11	-	5	-	0	82.3		12.3		33	24	6	0	11	8	6	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.0		659,932
		10	-	4	-	2	82.7		10.4		34	22	6	0	11	9	7	4	2	1	1	1	0	0	0		No		1,174	*
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	76.6		8.1		20	25	10	1	12	9	7	5	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0.0		58,657
		9	-	4	-	3	77.8		11.1		25	17	6	3	17	11	8	6		6		3					No		36
10		10	-	6	-	0	68.1		5.8		10	21	14	3	11	9	8	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0.0		1,207,987
		9	-	5	-	2	69.0		5.6		10	19	15	3	12	10	8	7	5	3	3	2	1	1	0	0	No		2,278
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	59.8		3.3		4	14	16	5	11	10	9	8	6	5	4	3	2	1	1	0	0.1		97,296
		8	-	5	-	3	50.7		3.0		1	13	9	9	12	6	10	13	9	6	3	3	1	3			No		67
9		9	-	7	-	0	50.7		2.3		1	8	14	8	9	9	9	8	7	6	5	5	4	3	2	1	0.2		1,725,089
		8	-	6	-	2	51.2		1.7		1	8	14	8	10	10	9	9	7	7	5	5	3	2	1	1	0.1		3,534
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	41.6		1.1		0	3	11	11	8	9	9	9	8	8	7	6	5	4	2	1	0.3		124,889
		7	-	6	-	3	36.9		No			3	9	9	6	9	11	3	18	9	12	5	3			2	1.5		65
8		8	-	8	-	0	33.4		0.7		0	1	7	11	6	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	5	4	2	0.7		1,944,468
		7	-	7	-	2	31.9		0.6		0	1	6	11	6	8	9	9	9	9	8	8	6	5	4	2	0.5		4,098
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	25.1		0.3		0	0	3	10	5	6	7	8	9	9	9	9	8	7	6	3	1.1		124,950
		6	-	7	-	3	18.1		No				5	4	5	5	10	7	11	4	17	7	11	8	2	5	3.6		83
7		7	-	9	-	0	19.0		0.2		0	0	2	9	4	5	6	7	8	9	9	9	9	9	8	6	2.3		1,727,337
		6	-	8	-	2	17.4		0.1			0	1	8	3	5	6	8	8	8	10	10	10	10	8	5	2.0		3,486
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	12.9		0.1		0	0	0	6	2	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	11	10	8	3.4		96,926
		5	-	8	-	3	13.2		No					6	4	4	6		8	8	9	13	8	13	11	11	9.4		53
6		6	-	10	-	0	9.1		0.0			0	0	5	2	3	4	5	6	7	9	10	11	13	13	12	5.7		1,209,553
		5	-	9	-	2	8.6		No				0	4	2	3	4	5	7	7	9	11	11	14	13	11	4.8		2,431
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	5.3		0.0				0	3	1	2	3	4	5	6	8	10	12	14	16	17	8.0		58,442
		4	-	9	-	3	7.7		No					3		5	5			3	8	21	15	10	23	8	2.6		39
5		5	-	11	-	0	3.6		0.0				0	2	1	1	2	3	4	5	7	9	11	15	19	23	12.3		659,862
		4	-	10	-	2	3.1		No					2	1	1	1	2	4	6	7	9	13	17	19	19	10.7		1,197	*
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	1.8		No					1	0	1	1	2	2	4	6	8	11	15	21	29	16.4		26,528	*
4		4	-	12	-	0	1.1		No				0	1	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	6	9	14	22	36	22.6		274,891
		3	-	11	-	2	0.5		No						0	0	1	1	2	2	5	7	8	16	22	36	19.3		436
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	0.6		No					0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	5	7	14	23	44	29.1		8,751	*
3		3	-	13	-	0	0.2		No					0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	4	6	12	22	52	36.3		84,524
		2	-	12	-	2	0.8		No					1					1	1	3	4	10	13	23	45	30.6		124
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	0.1		No					0					0	1	1	3	4	8	22	60	43.9		1,985	*
2		2	-	14	-	0	0.1		No					0		0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	8	19	68	51.9		18,243	*
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No													1	2	5	18	75	62.6		286
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No								0		0		0	0	1	5	13	81	68.5		2,420	*
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1	Out		No																18	82	64.7		17
0		0	-	16	-	0	Out		No																1	99	97.8		954

Total:							37.5	%	3.1	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.1	%	10,552,416

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Indianapolis vs Oakland	+1.6+0.0-1.6

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Oakland vs Jacksonville	-1.6-0.0+1.6

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

16		16	-	0	-	0	97	2	1	0		0
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	53	35	6	6
15		15	-	1	-	0	68	18	7	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0		0		0			0
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	58	20	11	3	3	1	1	1						1
14		14	-	2	-	0	52	20	11	6	4	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	45	22	11	7	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0
13		13	-	3	-	0	36	20	13	8	6	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0	0
		12	-	2	-	2	42	25	6	6	10	3	4	1	2
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	29	19	14	9	7	5	4	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0
12		12	-	4	-	0	23	16	12	10	8	6	5	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		11	-	3	-	2	20	16	15	14	7	6	4	2	3	4	2	2	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	16	14	12	10	8	6	6	5	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11		11	-	5	-	0	12	11	10	9	8	7	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	10	11	12	9	9	6	6	7	5	4	3	4	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0		0	0
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	8	9	9	8	8	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	4	-	3	11	11	6	8	6	17		6	3		3		11	6	3	3			3		3	3
10		10	-	6	-	0	6	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	6	6	6	8	6	6	6	5	5	6	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	3	5	5	5	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3	3	6		4	3	6	7	10	6	3	7	3	9		7	3	3	4	3	1	1	1	1	1			3
9		9	-	7	-	0	2	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
		8	-	6	-	2	2	2	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	6	5	5	4	5	5	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	1	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	5	4	5	4	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	0
		7	-	6	-	3			5	3	2	3	5	2	3	5	3	8	3	9	3	2	5	8	8	8	5	3	6		3							2
8		8	-	8	-	0	1	1	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1
		7	-	7	-	2	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	4	2	2	1	1	1
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	1
		6	-	7	-	3				1	2			1	4	1	6	2	2	6	6	1	10	2	5	4	4	2	5	8	6	8	1	2	4	1		4
7		7	-	9	-	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	3	2
		6	-	8	-	2	0	0	1	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	4	5	6	4	4	4	3	2
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	3
		5	-	8	-	3				2		2					4	2	2	2	2	2	9	4	4	4	4	8	6		4	9		8	13	2		9
6		6	-	10	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	6
		5	-	9	-	2		0	0		0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	6	5	6	7	7	7	7	6	5
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	8
		4	-	9	-	3									3		3	3	3		3		3			3		8	10	5	8	8	5	5	10	10	10	3
5		5	-	11	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
		4	-	10	-	2				0		0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	3	4	3	4	4	5	5	7	9	9	8	10	9	11
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	5	6	7	8	10	12	14	16
4		4	-	12	-	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	5	6	8	10	12	16	23
		3	-	11	-	2									0	0		0	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	1	2	2	2	3	4	6	5	9	11	11	17	19
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1				0	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	5	7	10	13	18	29
3		3	-	13	-	0			0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	6	9	13	20	36
		2	-	12	-	2																	1			1	1	2	2	3	3	5	8	3	10	11	19	31
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1														0		0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	2	4	4	7	12	21	44
2		2	-	14	-	0										0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	4	6	10	21	52
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																					0				1		2	3	4	8	20	63
1		1	-	15	-	0																			0				0	0	0	1	1	2	3	6	18	69
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1																															35	65
0		0	-	16	-	0																													0	1	2	98

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3