Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

New England Patriots Playoff Chances 1 50/50

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%

0-0-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
New England vs Buffalo	+8.1*+0.1-8.2		+1.4*-0.4-1.4		-1.3-0.5+1.4		+1.0+0.0-1.0
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	-0.9*+0.1+0.9						-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Miami vs Cleveland	-0.6*-0.1+0.6
Chicago vs Cincinnati	+0.4*+0.4-0.4

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
New England vs NY Jets	+8.2*-0.4-8.2		+1.4*-0.4-1.4		-1.4-0.4+1.4		+1.0-0.0-1.0
Buffalo vs Carolina	-0.8*+0.1+0.8						-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Miami vs Indianapolis	-0.5*-0.1+0.5
Kansas City vs Dallas	-0.4*-0.1+0.4						-0.0*-0.0+0.1
San Diego vs Philadelphia	-0.4*+0.0+0.4
Denver vs NY Giants	-0.3*+0.5+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the New England finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

15.5	-16						In		Yes		100																No		346	*
15		15	-	1	-	0	In		89.9	%	99	0			0	0											No		835
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	In		80.0		100																No		90
14		14	-	2	-	0	99.9	%	77.7		98	1			1	0	0	0	0	0							No		5,947	*
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	In		67.2		96	2	0		2												No		664
13		13	-	3	-	0	99.7		56.0		91	6	0		3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			No		28,186
		12	-	2	-	2	In		48.5		97	3															No		33
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	99.7		44.8		85	10	0		3	1	0	0	0	0							No		2,930	*
12		12	-	4	-	0	98.8		32.2		69	19	2	0	7	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			No		91,441
		11	-	3	-	2	In		31.4		72	17			7	4											No		137
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	97.3		21.3		54	26	4	0	9	4	2	1	0	0	0			0			No		8,860	*
11		11	-	5	-	0	93.7		13.9		34	31	9	1	12	6	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	No		219,751
		10	-	4	-	2	93.3		12.9		34	30	7	1	14	7	4	1	1	1							No		372
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	88.9		7.7		19	30	15	2	14	9	5	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0		No		19,231
		9	-	4	-	3	93.8		6.3		13	50	6		13	13	6										No		16
10		10	-	6	-	0	79.7		4.2		8	22	20	6	14	11	8	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	No		402,633
		9	-	5	-	2	81.7		4.1		8	21	21	5	16	10	8	6	2	1	1	0	0	0			No		796
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	68.8		1.6		2	12	19	9	14	13	10	7	5	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0.0	%	32,352
		8	-	5	-	3	83.3		4.2		4	4	33	8	21	13	4		4	4		4					No		24
9		9	-	7	-	0	55.6		0.8		1	5	14	13	11	12	11	10	8	6	4	3	2	1	0	0	0.0		575,747
		8	-	6	-	2	58.4		0.7		1	5	14	14	10	15	12	10	7	6	3	3	2	1			No		1,067
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	41.4		0.3		0	1	8	13	9	11	11	11	10	9	7	5	3	2	1	0	0.0		41,811
		7	-	6	-	3	30.8		No				23	4		4	12	4	15	27	4		4	4			No		26
8		8	-	8	-	0	29.2		0.1		0	0	4	11	6	8	10	11	11	10	9	8	6	4	2	1	0.1		648,655
		7	-	7	-	2	29.0		No			0	3	12	6	8	10	11	11	11	9	6	5	4	2	1	No		1,323
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	18.1		0.0			0	1	8	3	6	8	10	11	11	11	10	9	6	4	1	0.2		41,597
		6	-	7	-	3	20.0		No					12	4	4	8	8	24	16	8	4	4	8			No		25
7		7	-	9	-	0	11.0		0.0			0	0	5	2	4	5	7	9	11	12	12	12	10	7	3	0.9		576,631
		6	-	8	-	2	9.9		No				0	5	2	3	5	8	10	10	12	12	13	10	7	3	1.0		1,189	*
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	5.3		No				0	3	1	2	3	5	7	9	11	13	14	14	12	6	1.8		32,193
		5	-	8	-	3	Out		No									20	7	20		20	13	7		13	6.7		15
6		6	-	10	-	0	2.9		No				0	2	0	1	2	3	5	7	9	12	15	16	16	12	4.2		402,579
		5	-	9	-	2	2.7		No					2	0	1	1	2	4	6	10	11	14	19	19	12	4.6		827	*
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	1.1		No				0	1	0	0	1	1	3	4	7	10	14	19	21	19	7.6		19,441
		4	-	9	-	3	Out		No									10		10		10	10	10	30	20	20.0		10
5		5	-	11	-	0	0.5		No				0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	4	7	12	18	25	28	13.9		219,826
		4	-	10	-	2	Out		No									0	2	1	5	8	12	16	26	30	14.5		359
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	0.2		No					0		0	0	0	1	1	2	4	9	16	27	40	21.8		8,918	*
4		4	-	12	-	0	0.1		No					0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	6	12	26	50	32.0		91,422
		3	-	11	-	2	Out		No												1	1	9	7	26	55	32.9		152
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	Out		No									0	0	0	0	1	3	8	25	61	43.5		2,868	*
3		3	-	13	-	0	0.0		No					0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	6	19	72	56.0		28,220
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No														3	8	13	78	65.0		40
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	Out		No										0				1	3	14	82	69.3		665
2		2	-	14	-	0	Out		No								0				0	0	0	1	11	88	77.1		5,972	*
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No															1	7	92	86.5		104
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No									0				0		0	3	96	91.6		813
0	-0.5						Out		No																	100	99.4		333	*

Total:							37.5	%	3.1	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.1	%	3,517,472

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
New England vs Buffalo	-1.9-0.1+1.9

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
New England vs NY Jets	-1.9+0.0+1.9

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

15.5	-16						100
15		15	-	1	-	0	90	7	2	0						0		0
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	80	14	3	2
14		14	-	2	-	0	78	15	5	1	1	0	0		0			0	0	0			0			0
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	67	19	8	3	1	1	0	0
13		13	-	3	-	0	56	23	10	5	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0					0		0		0
		12	-	2	-	2	48	21	21	3	3	3
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	45	26	12	7	5	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0		0
12		12	-	4	-	0	32	23	15	10	7	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			0		0	0
		11	-	3	-	2	31	23	15	10	6	7	4	4			1
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	21	20	16	12	9	6	5	4	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0				0				0
11		11	-	5	-	0	14	16	14	12	10	8	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	13	14	13	11	11	10	7	7	4	2	2	2	1	2	0	0		0	0
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	8	11	12	11	10	9	8	7	5	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0		0
		9	-	4	-	3	6	13	19	13	6	6	13		13				13
10		10	-	6	-	0	4	7	8	9	9	9	8	7	6	6	5	4	4	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	4	7	7	10	9	9	10	7	8	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0			0		0
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	2	3	5	6	7	7	8	7	7	7	6	6	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3	4			4	8	13	13	8	4		8	8	13	4		4			4				4
9		9	-	7	-	0	1	2	3	4	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
		8	-	6	-	2	1	1	2	4	5	6	6	6	7	8	7	6	6	6	5	4	4	4	2	2	1	1	1	2	1	1	0	0
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	0	1	1	2	3	3	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
		7	-	6	-	3				8		4		8	4	4	4	4	12			12		8	19			4		8		4
8		8	-	8	-	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	0	0
		7	-	7	-	2		0	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	5	5	5	6	5	7	6	5	5	5	6	4	5	4	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	0
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	4	3	3	2	1	1	0
		6	-	7	-	3					4						4	4	8	4	8	16	4	8	8		4	8		4			8	8
7		7	-	9	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	4	3	2	1
		6	-	8	-	2					0	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	5	5	6	5	6	7	7	6	6	7	4	5	3	3	2	1
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	5	4	2
		5	-	8	-	3														7	7	7		13			20		7	7	7		13		7			7
6		6	-	10	-	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	6	6	7	8	8	9	9	8	7	4
		5	-	9	-	2						0		0		0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	4	3	6	7	8	9	10	10	9	10	7	5
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1		0	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	5	5	7	8	9	10	11	11	11	8
		4	-	9	-	3																				10		10		10	20		10			10	10	20
5		5	-	11	-	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	5	6	8	10	12	14	16	14
		4	-	10	-	2													0			1	1		1	1	2	1	3	6	6	5	6	10	14	13	16	14
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1									0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	3	4	6	9	12	16	21	22
4		4	-	12	-	0			0				0	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	3	4	7	10	15	23	32
		3	-	11	-	2																				1				1	1	2	4	6	13	13	27	33
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1																0		0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	4	7	14	25	44
3		3	-	13	-	0														0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	5	10	23	56
		2	-	12	-	2																												5	5	5	20	65
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1																						0			0	0	0	1	3	8	17	69
2		2	-	14	-	0																		0	0	0		0	0			0	0	1	1	4	16	77
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																														2	12	87
1		1	-	15	-	0																			0	0								0	0	1	7	92
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1																																100
0		0	-	16	-	0																															1	99

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3