Philadelphia Phillies Playoff Chances 2018
Lost to Rangers 1072-1358, playoff odds down 24 to 25.9%
2-3 .400
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How are these numbers calculated?
Big Games
How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain
| Week of 5/6 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Phillies 1072 Rangers 1358 | -11.2 | -0.7 | ||
| Mets 986 Marlins 825 | +2.7 | +0.1 | ||
| Braves 386 Nationals 721 | -2.0 | -0.1 | ||
| Dodgers 942 Padres 1077 | +0.7 | |||
| Cubs 1069 Rockies 1166 | +0.4 | |||
| Cardinals 518 Brewers 1308 | -0.2 | |||
| Giants 903 Diamondbacks 1233 | -0.2 | |||
| Reds 960 Pirates 915 | *-0.1 | |||
| If winner is:HomeAway | ||||
| Week of 5/13 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Phillies vs Cubs | +8.4-6.3 | +0.6-0.5 | ||
| Nationals vs Brewers | -3.8+3.3 | -0.1+0.1 | ||
| Marlins vs Pirates | -0.6+0.8 | -0.0+0.1 | ||
| Dodgers vs Tigers | -0.4+0.6 | |||
| Diamondbacks vs Indians | -0.2+0.2 | |||
| Mets vs Reds | -0.2+0.1 | |||
| Rockies vs White Sox | -0.1+0.0 | |||
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.
What If
Chances based on how well the Phillies finish out the regular season. Explain
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||||
| If finish: | Chance in | Chance will finish regular season at seed | |||||||||||||||||||||
| TW | W | - | L | playoffs | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | Count | |||
| 19 | 17 | - | 0 | In | 98 | 2 | 731 | ||||||||||||||||
| 18 | 16 | - | 1 | In | 87 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 4,840 | ||||||||||||||
| 17 | 15 | - | 2 | 100.0 | % | 57 | 37 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 28,953 | ||||||||||||
| 16 | 14 | - | 3 | 99.4 | 19 | 49 | 23 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 109,502 | ||||||||||||
| 15 | 13 | - | 4 | 91.1 | 2 | 26 | 47 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 282,039 | |||||||||||
| 14 | 12 | - | 5 | 63.3 | 0 | 5 | 47 | 11 | 25 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 529,422 | ||||||||||
| 13 | 11 | - | 6 | 29.7 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 20 | 36 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 748,010 | |||||||||
| 12 | 10 | - | 7 | 9.8 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 32 | 41 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 816,391 | |||||||||
| 11 | 9 | - | 8 | 2.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 37 | 39 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 698,115 | ||||||||
| 10 | 8 | - | 9 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 34 | 38 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 466,640 | ||||||||
| 9 | 7 | - | 10 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 39 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 244,422 | ||||||||
| 8 | 6 | - | 11 | Out | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 38 | 31 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 99,767 | |||||||||
| 7 | 5 | - | 12 | Out | 0 | 1 | 11 | 35 | 38 | 14 | 1 | 31,902 | |||||||||||
| 6 | 4 | - | 13 | Out | 0 | 0 | 8 | 33 | 43 | 15 | 7,624 | ||||||||||||
| 5 | 3 | - | 14 | Out | 0 | 8 | 43 | 48 | 1,302 | ||||||||||||||
| 4 | 2 | - | 15 | Out | 1 | 18 | 81 | 157 | |||||||||||||||
| 3 | 1 | - | 16 | Out | 100 | 7 | |||||||||||||||||
| 2 | 0 | - | 17 | Out | 0 | 100 | 336 | ||||||||||||||||
| Total: | 25.9 | % | 1 | 4 | 17 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 18 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4,070,160 | |||||
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs
Lottery
Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.
Big Games
| Week of 5/6 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| Phillies 1072 Rangers 1358 | +1.5 | |
| Mets 986 Marlins 825 | -0.1 | |
| Braves 386 Nationals 721 | +0.1 | |
| Dodgers 942 Padres 1077 | -0.1 | |
| Cardinals 518 Brewers 1308 | +0.0 | |
| Giants 903 Diamondbacks 1233 | +0.0 | |
| If winner is:HomeAway | ||
| Week of 5/13 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| Phillies vs Cubs | -1.4+1.0 | |
| Nationals vs Brewers | +0.1-0.1 | |
| Marlins vs Pirates | +0.0-0.1 | |
What If
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||
| If finish: | Chance will finish season at seed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TW | W | - | L | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | |
| 19 | 17 | - | 0 | 92 | 8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 18 | 16 | - | 1 | 68 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 17 | 15 | - | 2 | 27 | 43 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 16 | 14 | - | 3 | 3 | 16 | 32 | 30 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 15 | 13 | - | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 29 | 27 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 14 | 12 | - | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 27 | 18 | 20 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
| 13 | 11 | - | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 7 | 22 | 25 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | 10 | - | 7 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 25 | 28 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
| 11 | 9 | - | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 23 | 30 | 22 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
| 10 | 8 | - | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 27 | 27 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
| 9 | 7 | - | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 27 | 25 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 8 | 6 | - | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 28 | 24 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | 5 | - | 12 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 25 | 30 | 21 | 8 | 1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | 4 | - | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 36 | 22 | 5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | 3 | - | 14 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 44 | 34 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | 2 | - | 15 | 2 | 22 | 76 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | 1 | - | 16 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | 0 | - | 17 | 0 | 100 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total: | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Updated Tuesday, 2023-11-7 2:44 PM Eastern (GMT-05:00)
