Chicago Cubs Playoff Chances 2018

Lost to Rockies 1069-1166, playoff odds down 8.9 to 68.4%
4-1   .800

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 5/6100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Cubs 1069 Rockies 1166 -9.4
-0.6
Dodgers 942 Padres 1077 +1.7
Cardinals 518 Brewers 1308 -1.2
-0.1
Reds 960 Pirates 915 -0.5
Giants 903 Diamondbacks 1233 -0.4
-0.0
Phillies 1072 Rangers 1358 +0.4
Mets 986 Marlins 825 +0.3
Braves 386 Nationals 721 -0.2
If winner is:HomeAway
Week of 5/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Phillies vs Cubs-9.1+6.8
-0.5+0.3
Dodgers vs Tigers-1.5+2.7
-0.0+0.1
Nationals vs Brewers+2.0-1.7
+0.1-0.1
Diamondbacks vs Indians-0.9+1.0
Mets vs Reds+1.3-0.6
Marlins vs Pirates-0.1+0.2

What If

Chances based on how well the Cubs finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-Lplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
2016-0In1003,800
1915-1In991032,833
1814-2In93602140,656
1713-3100.0%7319080367,757
1612-499.3393532210655,410
1511-592.811341038700851,090
1410-669.4115153928300826,499
139-732.10210204619200612,983
128-87.1034294219300351,887
117-90.801062640235000156,132
106-100.100421382781053,554
95-110.00021533331420014,080
84-12Out018253623612,735
73-13Out12183434102370
62-14Out94144634
51-15Out25754
40-16Out11683336
Total:68.4%19187241784210000004,070,160
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/6100.0*Lottery seed
Cubs 1069 Rockies 1166 +1.2
Dodgers 942 Padres 1077 -0.1
Rays 842 Red Sox 973 -0.1
Royals 995 Indians 968 -0.1
Phillies 1072 Rangers 1358 -0.1
Cardinals 518 Brewers 1308 +0.1
Giants 903 Diamondbacks 1233 +0.0
If winner is:HomeAway
Week of 5/13100.0*Lottery seed
Phillies vs Cubs+1.0-0.8
Dodgers vs Tigers+0.1-0.1
Nationals vs Brewers-0.1+0.1
Red Sox vs Astros-0.1+0.0
Mets vs Reds-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
2016-0991
1915-19370
1814-27523200
1713-34042152000
1612-410313418510010
1511-5161929241020700
1410-600281823154264000
139-700016131131269200
128-80016825322171000
117-901021024312182000
106-1000018202925134100
95-1100014122428209300
84-120151425261810200
73-13051326272261
62-14312413212
51-155050
40-16021682
Total:91111111086312753211000000000000000