Washington Nationals Playoff Chances 2018
Beat Braves 721-386, playoff odds up 35.9 to 69.4%
3-2 .600
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How are these numbers calculated?
Big Games
How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain
| Week of 5/6 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Braves 386 Nationals 721 | +4.4 | +0.4 | ||
| Phillies 1072 Rangers 1358 | +4.4 | +0.2 | ||
| Mets 986 Marlins 825 | +2.1 | +0.1 | ||
| Dodgers 942 Padres 1077 | +0.7 | |||
| Cubs 1069 Rockies 1166 | +0.5 | |||
| Cardinals 518 Brewers 1308 | -0.2 | |||
| Giants 903 Diamondbacks 1233 | -0.2 | |||
| Reds 960 Pirates 915 | *-0.1 | |||
| If winner is:HomeAway | ||||
| Week of 5/13 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Nationals vs Brewers | +8.3-7.1 | +0.5-0.5 | ||
| Phillies vs Cubs | -4.1+3.0 | -0.1+0.1 | ||
| Marlins vs Pirates | -1.4+1.9 | -0.1+0.1 | ||
| Mets vs Reds | -0.7+0.3 | |||
| Dodgers vs Tigers | -0.2+0.4 | |||
| Diamondbacks vs Indians | -0.1+0.1 | |||
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.
What If
Chances based on how well the Nationals finish out the regular season. Explain
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||||
| If finish: | Chance in | Chance will finish regular season at seed | |||||||||||||||||||||
| TW | W | - | L | playoffs | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | Count | |||
| 19 | 16 | - | 0 | In | 100 | 0 | 3,279 | ||||||||||||||||
| 18 | 15 | - | 1 | In | 94 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 29,123 | ||||||||||||||
| 17 | 14 | - | 2 | 100.0 | % | 72 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 128,424 | ||||||||||||
| 16 | 13 | - | 3 | 100.0 | 37 | 49 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 347,367 | |||||||||||||
| 15 | 12 | - | 4 | 99.2 | 9 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 638,967 | |||||||||||
| 14 | 11 | - | 5 | 92.3 | 1 | 19 | 67 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 847,553 | ||||||||||
| 13 | 10 | - | 6 | 70.2 | 0 | 3 | 64 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 838,338 | |||||||||
| 12 | 9 | - | 7 | 39.7 | 0 | 39 | 1 | 8 | 27 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 630,598 | |||||||||
| 11 | 8 | - | 8 | 15.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 37 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 366,369 | ||||||||
| 10 | 7 | - | 9 | 3.2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 37 | 30 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 164,521 | ||||||||
| 9 | 6 | - | 10 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 31 | 35 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 56,591 | ||||||||
| 8 | 5 | - | 11 | Out | 0 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 37 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 15,128 | ||||||||||
| 7 | 4 | - | 12 | Out | 0 | 2 | 17 | 36 | 32 | 12 | 1 | 3,054 | |||||||||||
| 6 | 3 | - | 13 | Out | 0 | 2 | 12 | 34 | 40 | 11 | 459 | ||||||||||||
| 5 | 2 | - | 14 | Out | 4 | 12 | 41 | 43 | 51 | ||||||||||||||
| 4 | 1 | - | 15 | Out | 100 | 2 | |||||||||||||||||
| 3 | 0 | - | 16 | Out | 4 | 96 | 336 | ||||||||||||||||
| Total: | 69.4 | % | 8 | 17 | 42 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4,070,160 | |||||
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs
Lottery
Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.
Big Games
| Week of 5/6 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| Braves 386 Nationals 721 | -0.6 | |
| Phillies 1072 Rangers 1358 | -0.2 | |
| Mets 986 Marlins 825 | -0.1 | |
| Cardinals 518 Brewers 1308 | +0.0 | |
| If winner is:HomeAway | ||
| Week of 5/13 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| Nationals vs Brewers | -1.0+0.9 | |
| Phillies vs Cubs | +0.1-0.1 | |
| Marlins vs Pirates | +0.1-0.1 | |
| Red Sox vs Astros | -0.1+0.0 | |
What If
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||
| If finish: | Chance will finish season at seed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TW | W | - | L | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | |
| 19 | 16 | - | 0 | 93 | 7 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 18 | 15 | - | 1 | 72 | 25 | 2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 17 | 14 | - | 2 | 35 | 43 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 16 | 13 | - | 3 | 7 | 26 | 35 | 23 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 15 | 12 | - | 4 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 28 | 30 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 14 | 11 | - | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 30 | 29 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 13 | 10 | - | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 35 | 9 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
| 12 | 9 | - | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 34 | 2 | 11 | 20 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
| 11 | 8 | - | 8 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 27 | 21 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
| 10 | 7 | - | 9 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 28 | 25 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 9 | 6 | - | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 23 | 28 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 8 | 5 | - | 11 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 24 | 27 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | 4 | - | 12 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 24 | 27 | 20 | 9 | 2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | 3 | - | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 29 | 26 | 12 | 4 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | 2 | - | 14 | 10 | 16 | 29 | 33 | 12 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | 1 | - | 15 | 50 | 50 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | 0 | - | 16 | 4 | 96 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total: | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Updated Tuesday, 2023-11-7 2:44 PM Eastern (GMT-05:00)
