Philadelphia Flyers Playoff Chances 2018-2019

Lost to Buffalo Sabres 1-2, playoff odds down 3.6 to 78.3%

24 points 11 8-2

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
New York Rangers vs Philadelphia Flyers	-4.9-0.6-0.7+4.8+4.7+5.5		-0.2-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2		-0.5*-0.1-0.1+0.5+0.4+0.5
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Boston Bruins	-0.2-0.1-0.2-0.0+0.3+0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Philadelphia Flyers finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

123	-146						In		Yes		100																225	*
122		46	9		-	6	In		95.7	%	96		4														23	*
121		47	11		-	3	In		91.5		98		2														47	*
120		46	11		-	4	In		93.0		95	1	3														86	*
119		46	12		-	3	In		86.7		93	1	6														143	*
118		45	12		-	4	In		82.0		86	2	12														217	*
117		44	12		-	5	In		76.4		84	6	9														402	*
116		44	13		-	4	In		67.5		76	9	15		0												664	*
115		43	13		-	5	In		60.6		72	9	18		0												1,036	*
114		43	14		-	4	In		51.9		64	14	22		0												1,652	*
113		42	14		-	5	In		41.9		58	15	27	0	1												2,429	*
112		42	15		-	4	In		31.7		48	19	31	0	1		0										3,697	*
111		41	15		-	5	In		22.9		40	20	37	1	2		0										5,352	*
110		41	16		-	4	In		16.1		32	22	42	1	3		0										7,562	*
109		40	16		-	5	In		9.5		25	22	46	2	5		0										10,608	*
108		40	17		-	4	In		5.3		18	22	49	3	8		0										14,540	*
107		39	17		-	5	In		2.6		13	20	50	6	11	0	1										19,132	*
106		39	18		-	4	In		1.2		8	18	50	8	15	0	1										25,001	*
105		38	18		-	5	In		0.4		5	16	47	11	19	0	1										32,200	*
104		38	19		-	4	In		0.2		3	13	43	14	25	0	3										40,469	*
103		37	19		-	5	In		0.0		2	10	36	17	30	0	4	0									49,775	*
102		37	20		-	4	In		0.0		1	7	30	19	36	0	6	0									59,750	*
101		36	20		-	5	In		0.0		0	5	23	21	41	1	9	0									70,723	*
100		35	20		-	6	In		No		0	4	16	21	44	2	13	0									81,897	*
99		35	21		-	5	In		No		0	2	11	20	45	3	18	0									93,272	*
98		34	21		-	6	100.0	%	No		0	1	7	18	44	5	24	1	0								103,874	*
97		34	22		-	5	100.0		No		0	1	4	15	41	8	30	1	0								114,012	*
96		33	22		-	6	100.0		No		0	0	2	12	36	11	36	2	0								122,259	*
95		33	23		-	5	99.9		No			0	1	9	30	14	42	4	0	0							129,385	*
94		32	23		-	6	99.6		No			0	0	7	23	15	47	7	0	0	0						134,017	*
93		32	24		-	5	99.0		No			0	0	5	17	17	50	11	1	0	0						135,800	*
92		31	24		-	6	97.6		No			0	0	3	11	16	51	17	2	0	0						134,846	*
91		31	25		-	5	95.0		No			0	0	2	7	15	48	23	5	0	0						133,044	*
90		30	25		-	6	90.2		No			0	0	1	4	13	43	30	8	1	0	0					128,041	*
89		30	26		-	5	82.7		No			0		1	2	10	35	35	14	3	0	0					120,378	*
88		29	26		-	6	72.1		No				0	0	1	7	27	37	21	6	1	0					111,085	*
87		29	27		-	5	59.2		No					0	0	5	18	35	28	11	2	0	0				101,042	*
86		28	27		-	6	45.0		No					0	0	3	11	30	32	17	5	1	0				90,527	*
85		28	28		-	5	31.1		No					0	0	2	6	23	33	24	9	2	0	0	0		80,091	*
84		27	28		-	6	19.4		No					0	0	1	3	15	30	30	16	4	1	0	0		68,743	*
83		27	29		-	5	10.7		No					0	0	1	1	9	24	32	23	9	2	0	0		58,302	*
82		26	29		-	6	5.3		No							0	1	4	17	30	29	15	4	1	0		48,600	*
81		26	30		-	5	2.3		No							0	0	2	10	25	32	22	8	2	0	0	39,542	*
80		25	30		-	6	0.8		No							0	0	1	5	17	30	28	14	4	1	0	31,881	*
79		25	31		-	5	0.3		No							0	0	0	2	10	24	32	22	8	1	0	24,750	*
78		24	31		-	6	0.1		No							0	0	0	1	6	18	30	29	13	3	0	19,222	*
77		24	32		-	5	0.0		No							0	0	0	0	3	11	25	32	21	7	1	14,689	*
76		23	32		-	6	0.0		No									0	0	1	7	19	32	28	12	2	10,933	*
75		23	33		-	5	Out		No										0	0	3	13	29	33	18	4	8,056	*
74		22	33		-	6	Out		No											0	1	8	22	35	26	7	5,742	*
73		22	34		-	5	Out		No											0	0	4	16	34	33	13	4,060	*
72		21	34		-	6	Out		No												0	2	12	28	38	19	2,889	*
71		21	35		-	5	Out		No												0	1	7	25	41	26	1,956	*
70		20	35		-	6	Out		No												0	0	3	17	44	35	1,289	*
69		20	36		-	5	Out		No													0	2	13	40	45	845	*
68		19	36		-	6	Out		No														1	8	36	55	529	*
67		19	37		-	5	Out		No															6	27	67	357	*
66		19	38		-	4	Out		No															3	28	69	212	*
65		18	38		-	5	Out		No															1	19	80	113	*
64		17	38		-	6	Out		No															1	13	86	91	*
63		18	40		-	3	Out		No																20	80	46	*
62		17	40		-	4	Out		No																9	91	23	*
24	-61						Out		No																	100	227	*

Total:							78.3	%	0.4	%	1	2	7	7	17	7	25	12	8	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	2,502,400

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
New York Rangers vs Philadelphia Flyers	+0.9+0.1+0.1-0.9-0.9-1.0
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Boston Bruins	+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1
Florida Panthers vs Carolina Hurricanes	-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Columbus Blue Jackets	-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

123	-146						100
122		46	9		-	6	96				4
121		47	11		-	3	91	6			2
120		46	11		-	4	93	2	1		3
119		46	12		-	3	87	6	1		6
118		45	12		-	4	82	4	2		12
117		44	12		-	5	76	8	6		9
116		44	13		-	4	67	8	9		15	0			0
115		43	13		-	5	61	11	9		18	0			0
114		43	14		-	4	52	13	14		22	0			0
113		42	14		-	5	42	16	15		27	0	0		1
112		42	15		-	4	32	17	19	0	30	1	0		1				0
111		41	15		-	5	23	17	20	0	35	2	1		2				0
110		41	16		-	4	16	16	21	1	38	3	1		3				0
109		40	16		-	5	10	16	21	1	41	5	2		5				0
108		40	17		-	4	5	13	20	2	41	8	3		8	0			0
107		39	17		-	5	3	10	18	3	39	12	6	0	10	0	0		1
106		39	18		-	4	1	7	15	3	34	16	8	0	14	0	0		1	0
105		38	18		-	5	0	5	12	4	28	20	11	0	18	1	0		1
104		38	19		-	4	0	3	8	4	20	22	14	0	22	3	0		3	0
103		37	19		-	5	0	2	5	4	13	23	17	1	25	5	0		4	0	0
102		37	20		-	4	0	1	3	4	8	22	18	1	27	9	0		6	0	0
101		36	20		-	5	0	0	2	3	4	19	18	2	27	14	1	0	9	0	0
100		35	20		-	6		0	1	3	2	15	17	4	24	20	2	0	12	1	0
99		35	21		-	5		0	0	2	1	11	14	6	19	26	3	0	16	2	0	0
98		34	21		-	6		0	0	1	0	7	11	7	14	30	5	0	19	5	1	0	0
97		34	22		-	5		0	0	1	0	4	7	8	9	33	7	1	21	9	1	0	0
96		33	22		-	6		0	0	0	0	2	5	8	4	32	9	2	22	14	2	0	0
95		33	23		-	5			0	0		1	2	7	2	28	10	3	20	22	3	0	0	0
94		32	23		-	6			0	0		0	1	6	1	22	10	5	17	30	5	1	0	0	0
93		32	24		-	5				0		0	0	4	0	16	9	8	12	38	8	3	1	0	0
92		31	24		-	6				0		0	0	3	0	11	6	10	8	43	10	7	2	0	0	0	0
91		31	25		-	5				0		0	0	2	0	7	4	11	4	44	11	13	4	1	0	0	0
90		30	25		-	6				0		0	0	1		4	2	11	2	41	9	21	6	3	1	0	0	0
89		30	26		-	5				0			0	1		2	1	9	1	35	6	29	8	6	3	1	0	0	0
88		29	26		-	6						0		0		1	0	7	0	27	3	33	8	10	6	3	1	0	0	0
87		29	27		-	5								0		0	0	5	0	18	1	34	7	12	12	7	3	1	0	0
86		28	27		-	6								0		0	0	3	0	11	0	30	4	11	16	14	7	2	0	0	0
85		28	28		-	5								0		0	0	2		6	0	23	2	8	16	20	14	7	2	0	0	0
84		27	28		-	6								0		0		1		3	0	15	1	4	12	20	21	14	6	2	0	0	0
83		27	29		-	5								0		0		1		1		9	0	1	6	16	23	22	13	5	2	0	0	0
82		26	29		-	6												0		1		4	0	0	3	9	18	25	21	12	5	1	0	0
81		26	30		-	5												0		0		2		0	1	4	11	21	25	20	11	4	1	0	0
80		25	30		-	6												0		0		1		0	0	1	5	12	22	26	19	10	3	1	0	0
79		25	31		-	5												0		0		0			0	0	2	6	14	24	25	18	8	2	0	0	0
78		24	31		-	6												0		0		0			0	0	0	2	7	16	25	24	16	6	2	0
77		24	32		-	5												0		0		0					0	1	3	9	20	27	23	13	4	1	0
76		23	32		-	6																0					0	0	1	4	13	23	27	21	9	2	0
75		23	33		-	5																						0	0	2	6	16	27	26	16	5	1
74		22	33		-	6																							0	0	3	9	21	30	25	10	2
73		22	34		-	5																								0	1	4	15	26	31	18	4
72		21	34		-	6																									0	2	7	21	33	27	8
71		21	35		-	5																									0	1	4	16	31	33	14
70		20	35		-	6																										0	2	10	29	38	21
69		20	36		-	5																										0	1	5	23	39	32
68		19	36		-	6																											0	3	13	40	44
67		19	37		-	5																												1	12	32	55
66		19	38		-	4																												1	6	31	62
65		18	38		-	5																													4	23	73
64		17	38		-	6																													1	19	80
63		17	39		-	5																													2	22	76
62		17	40		-	4																														17	83
24	-61																																				100

Total:							0	1	1	1	3	4	4	3	6	11	4	4	8	17	3	9	2	2	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0