Arizona Coyotes Playoff Chances 2018-2019

Lost to Vegas Golden Knights 1-3, playoff odds down 8.8 to 51.2%

22 points 10 8-2

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Colorado Avalanche vs Arizona Coyotes	-4.4-0.7-0.5+5.2+4.8+5.2		-0.2*-0.0-0.1+0.3+0.2+0.3		-0.4-0.0-0.0+0.5+0.5+0.5
Edmonton Oilers vs Anaheim Ducks	+0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.8*-0.0				+0.0-0.0*-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0
Calgary Flames vs Vegas Golden Knights					+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.0
Vancouver Canucks vs San Jose Sharks					+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1*-0.0+0.0
Winnipeg Jets vs Minnesota Wild					+0.0-0.0-0.1*-0.0-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Arizona Coyotes finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

122	-146						In		Yes		100																204	*
121		48	11		-	3	In		88.9	%	89	11															9	*
120		47	11		-	4	In		93.8		100																16	*
119		46	11		-	5	In		93.0		98	2															43	*
118		46	12		-	4	In		77.1		96	4															70	*
117		46	13		-	3	In		72.0		95	4	1														107	*
116		45	13		-	4	In		73.1		94	6	1														171	*
115		44	13		-	5	In		61.6		89	11	0														310	*
114		44	14		-	4	In		53.1		86	13	1														529	*
113		43	14		-	5	In		42.4		76	22	2														841	*
112		43	15		-	4	In		32.7		72	26	2		0												1,325	*
111		42	15		-	5	In		23.0		61	35	4	0													2,112	*
110		41	15		-	6	In		15.7		53	41	6	0	0												3,010	*
109		41	16		-	5	In		9.4		45	47	7	1	0												4,437	*
108		41	17		-	4	In		5.5		36	52	10	1	0												6,356	*
107		40	17		-	5	In		2.9		27	57	12	3	1	0											8,898	*
106		39	17		-	6	In		1.3		20	60	14	5	1	0	0										12,209	*
105		39	18		-	5	In		0.5		14	61	16	8	2	0	0										16,117	*
104		38	18		-	6	In		0.2		8	60	16	13	3	0	0	0									21,343	*
103		38	19		-	5	In		0.0		5	56	16	19	4	1	0										27,555	*
102		37	19		-	6	In		0.0		2	50	14	25	6	1	0	0									35,076	*
101		37	20		-	5	In		0.0		1	43	11	32	8	3	1	0									43,671	*
100		36	20		-	6	100.0	%	No		0	36	8	38	10	6	1	0	0								53,066	*
99		36	21		-	5	100.0		No		0	28	5	42	11	10	2	0	0	0							62,907	*
98		35	21		-	6	99.9		No		0	21	3	43	11	17	4	1	0								73,672	*
97		35	22		-	5	99.7		No		0	16	2	42	10	23	6	2	0	0	0						85,292	*
96		34	22		-	6	99.2		No		0	11	1	37	8	31	8	4	1	0							96,040	*
95		34	23		-	5	97.8		No			7	0	32	5	37	10	7	2	0	0						106,592	*
94		33	23		-	6	94.9		No			4	0	25	3	40	11	11	4	1	0	0					115,143	*
93		33	24		-	5	89.5		No			2	0	19	2	41	10	16	9	2	0	0					123,114	*
92		32	24		-	6	81.0		No			1	0	13	1	38	9	19	14	4	0	0					129,013	*
91		32	25		-	5	69.3		No			1	0	8	0	33	7	20	21	8	1	0	0				132,900	*
90		31	25		-	6	55.3		No			0		5	0	27	4	19	26	14	4	0	0	0			135,196	*
89		31	26		-	5	40.6		No			0		3	0	20	3	16	29	21	7	1	0	0			134,270	*
88		30	26		-	6	27.4		No			0		1	0	14	1	11	28	28	13	3	0	0			130,490	*
87		30	27		-	5	16.8		No			0		1		9	1	7	24	32	20	6	1	0			124,627	*
86		29	27		-	6	9.4		No			0		0		5	0	4	18	32	27	11	2	0	0		117,422	*
85		29	28		-	5	4.8		No			0		0		3	0	2	12	29	32	18	5	1	0		108,256	*
84		28	28		-	6	2.2		No					0		1	0	1	7	22	33	25	9	1	0		98,344	*
83		28	29		-	5	1.0		No					0		1	0	0	3	15	31	31	15	3	0		87,631	*
82		27	29		-	6	0.4		No					0		0	0	0	2	9	25	34	22	6	0		76,400	*
81		27	30		-	5	0.1		No							0		0	1	5	19	34	29	11	1		66,241	*
80		26	30		-	6	0.0		No							0		0	0	3	13	30	35	17	2		55,751	*
79		26	31		-	5	0.0		No							0			0	1	8	25	38	24	5		46,482	*
78		25	31		-	6	0.0		No							0			0	0	4	18	37	32	8		37,491	*
77		25	32		-	5	Out		No										0	0	2	13	33	39	13		30,355	*
76		24	32		-	6	0.0		No							0			0	0	1	8	29	43	19		23,774	*
75		24	33		-	5	Out		No												0	5	23	46	26		18,442	*
74		23	33		-	6	Out		No										0		0	2	17	46	34		14,060	*
73		23	34		-	5	Out		No												0	1	12	43	44		10,340	*
72		22	34		-	6	Out		No												0	1	8	40	52		7,536	*
71		22	35		-	5	Out		No													0	5	34	61		5,274	*
70		21	35		-	6	Out		No													0	3	30	67		3,912	*
69		21	36		-	5	Out		No													0	2	24	74		2,655	*
68		21	37		-	4	Out		No														1	19	80		1,904	*
67		20	37		-	5	Out		No														1	16	84		1,183	*
66		19	37		-	6	Out		No														0	11	88		831	*
65		19	38		-	5	Out		No														0	8	91		481	*
64		18	38		-	6	Out		No															10	90		292	*
63		18	39		-	5	Out		No															5	95		174	*
62		18	40		-	4	Out		No															1	99		96	*
61		17	40		-	5	Out		No															3	97		68	*
22	-60						Out		No																100		274	*

Total:							51.2	%	0.2	%	1	8	1	12	2	16	3	7	10	10	9	8	6	4	2		2,502,400

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Colorado Avalanche vs Arizona Coyotes	+0.9*+0.1+0.1-1.0-1.0-1.0
Edmonton Oilers vs Anaheim Ducks	-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.2+0.0
Vancouver Canucks vs San Jose Sharks	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0
New York Rangers vs Philadelphia Flyers	+0.0+0.0-0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.0
Calgary Flames vs Vegas Golden Knights	-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.0
Winnipeg Jets vs Minnesota Wild	-0.0+0.1+0.1*+0.0+0.0+0.0
Ottawa Senators vs Dallas Stars	+0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0
Nashville Predators vs St. Louis Blues	+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1*+0.0-0.0
Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres	+0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1*+0.0+0.0
Florida Panthers vs Carolina Hurricanes	+0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

122	-146						100
121		48	11		-	3	89		11
120		47	11		-	4	94	6
119		46	11		-	5	93	5	2
118		46	12		-	4	77	19	4
117		46	13		-	3	72	23	4		1
116		45	13		-	4	73	20	6		1
115		44	13		-	5	62	27	10	1	0
114		44	14		-	4	53	33	12	1	1
113		43	14		-	5	42	34	21	1	2
112		43	15		-	4	33	39	24	2	2	0			0
111		42	15		-	5	23	38	30	4	4	0	0
110		41	15		-	6	16	37	33	8	5	0	0		0
109		41	16		-	5	9	35	36	11	7	1	1		0
108		41	17		-	4	5	31	35	17	8	2	1	0	0
107		40	17		-	5	3	24	34	24	9	3	3		1		0
106		39	17		-	6	1	19	30	30	10	4	4	0	1	0	0		0
105		39	18		-	5	1	13	26	36	9	6	7	0	2	0	0		0
104		38	18		-	6	0	8	19	41	8	8	12	1	3	0	0		0		0
103		38	19		-	5	0	5	13	42	6	10	17	2	4	0	1		0
102		37	19		-	6	0	2	8	42	4	10	22	4	6	1	1		0		0
101		37	20		-	5	0	1	5	38	2	9	25	8	7	1	3	0	1	0	0
100		36	20		-	6		0	3	33	1	7	25	13	8	2	6	0	1	0	0		0
99		36	21		-	5		0	1	27	0	5	24	18	7	4	10	0	2	0	0		0	0
98		35	21		-	6		0	1	21	0	3	19	24	6	5	16	0	4	0	1		0
97		35	22		-	5		0	0	15	0	2	14	27	4	5	22	1	5	1	2	0	0	0	0
96		34	22		-	6		0	0	11	0	1	9	28	2	5	28	3	7	1	4	0	1	0
95		34	23		-	5			0	7	0	0	5	26	1	4	31	6	8	2	7	0	2	0	0
94		33	23		-	6			0	4		0	3	22	0	3	30	10	7	3	11	0	4	1	0	0
93		33	24		-	5			0	2		0	1	17	0	2	26	15	6	4	15	1	9	2	0	0
92		32	24		-	6			0	1		0	0	13	0	1	20	18	4	5	17	2	14	4	1	0
91		32	25		-	5				1		0	0	8	0	0	13	20	2	5	16	4	21	8	2	0	0
90		31	25		-	6				0			0	5	0	0	8	19	1	3	13	6	25	15	4	1	0	0
89		31	26		-	5				0			0	3	0	0	4	16	0	2	8	7	26	22	9	2	0	0
88		30	26		-	6				0				1		0	2	12	0	1	4	7	22	28	16	5	1	0	0	0
87		30	27		-	5				0			0	1			1	8	0	1	2	5	15	28	24	12	3	1	0	0
86		29	27		-	6				0				0			0	5	0	0	0	3	8	22	28	20	9	3	1	0	0	0
85		29	28		-	5				0				0			0	3		0	0	2	3	14	25	26	17	7	2	0	0	0
84		28	28		-	6								0			0	1		0	0	1	1	7	17	25	24	15	6	2	0	0
83		28	29		-	5								0			0	1		0	0	0	0	2	9	19	25	23	14	6	2	0	0
82		27	29		-	6								0				0		0		0	0	1	3	10	20	26	21	12	5	1	0	0	0
81		27	30		-	5												0				0	0	0	1	5	12	21	25	20	11	4	1	0	0
80		26	30		-	6												0				0		0	0	1	5	13	22	26	19	9	3	1	0	0
79		26	31		-	5												0						0	0	0	2	7	16	24	25	17	7	2	0	0	0
78		25	31		-	6												0							0	0	1	3	8	18	25	24	15	5	1	0	0
77		25	32		-	5																				0	0	1	4	11	21	27	22	12	4	1	0
76		24	32		-	6												0								0	0	0	1	5	14	24	26	19	8	2	0
75		24	33		-	5																						0	0	2	7	18	27	26	15	4	0
74		23	33		-	6																						0	0	1	3	11	23	29	23	9	1
73		23	34		-	5																								0	1	5	16	29	29	15	3
72		22	34		-	6																								0	0	3	10	25	32	23	6
71		22	35		-	5																									0	1	6	18	33	31	12
70		21	35		-	6																									0	0	2	11	29	39	18
69		21	36		-	5																										0	1	7	24	41	27
68		21	37		-	4																										0	0	4	17	41	37
67		20	37		-	5																											0	3	11	38	48
66		19	37		-	6																												1	8	34	57
65		19	38		-	5																												0	5	29	66
64		18	38		-	6																													3	27	70
63		18	39		-	5																													2	18	80
62		18	40		-	4																													1	11	88
61		17	40		-	5																														16	84
60		16	40		-	6																														10	90
22	-59																																				100

Total:							0	1	1	6	0	1	4	8	1	1	9	7	2	1	5	2	8	8	6	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0