Washington Capitals Playoff Chances 2018-2019

Lost to Chicago Blackhawks 2-6, playoff odds down 4.4 to 10.2%

16 points 6 11-4

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Detroit Red Wings vs Washington Capitals	-3.8-0.7-0.8+3.1+3.1+3.4		-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.1		-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.4+0.4+0.4
New York Rangers vs Philadelphia Flyers	-0.1-0.3-0.6-0.4-0.3-0.2				-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0*-0.0-0.0
New York Islanders vs New Jersey Devils	-0.2-0.5-0.4-0.5*-0.4-0.2
Nashville Predators vs St. Louis Blues	-0.2-0.5-0.0-0.2*-0.3-0.2
Calgary Flames vs Vegas Golden Knights	-0.2-0.5-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.1
Florida Panthers vs Carolina Hurricanes	-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.5*-0.3-0.3
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Columbus Blue Jackets	-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.2*-0.1
Edmonton Oilers vs Anaheim Ducks	-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.2*-0.3-0.2
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Boston Bruins	-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.3-0.4*+0.1
Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres	-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Washington Capitals finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

138		61	0		-	0	In		Yes		100																200
113		47	11		-	3	In		No			100															1
111		46	12		-	3	In		50.0	%	50	50															2	*
110		43	10		-	8	In		20.0		50	10	40														10	*
109		44	12		-	5	In		No			18	73		9												11	*
108		43	12		-	6	In		5.3		26	26	37	5	5												19	*
107		43	13		-	5	In		4.0		22	26	38	4	10												50	*
106		43	14		-	4	In		No		14	22	49	6	9												81	*
105		42	14		-	5	In		0.8		6	13	55	9	15		2										127	*
104		42	15		-	4	In		0.5		3	15	44	10	23	0	3										210	*
103		41	15		-	5	In		No		4	13	37	16	26		4										348	*
102		40	15		-	6	In		No		1	8	31	20	33	1	7	0									563	*
101		40	16		-	5	In		No		0	6	23	19	38	1	13	0									893	*
100		39	16		-	6	In		No			4	17	19	42	2	15	2									1,328	*
99		39	17		-	5	In		No		0	3	11	18	42	3	21	2									2,109	*
98		38	17		-	6	99.9	%	No		0	1	7	17	41	5	25	4	0								3,116	*
97		38	18		-	5	100.0		No			1	4	14	38	6	32	6	0								4,356	*
96		37	18		-	6	99.8		No			0	2	10	31	9	37	10	0								6,441	*
95		37	19		-	5	99.3		No			0	1	8	24	10	42	15	1	0							9,050	*
94		36	19		-	6	98.2		No			0	0	5	18	11	44	20	2	0							12,320	*
93		36	20		-	5	96.1		No			0	0	3	12	11	43	27	4	0							16,309	*
92		35	20		-	6	92.5		No			0	0	2	7	10	39	34	7	1	0						21,892	*
91		35	21		-	5	86.3		No			0	0	1	4	8	33	40	12	2	0	0					27,654	*
90		34	21		-	6	77.4		No				0	0	2	6	26	43	18	4	0	0					35,051	*
89		34	22		-	5	65.6		No					0	1	5	19	41	26	7	1	0	0				43,751	*
88		33	22		-	6	52.2		No					0	0	3	12	37	32	13	3	0	0				52,705	*
87		33	23		-	5	38.3		No					0	0	2	7	30	36	20	6	1	0				63,366	*
86		32	23		-	6	25.4		No					0	0	1	4	21	35	27	10	2	0	0			74,205	*
85		32	24		-	5	15.4		No					0	0	0	2	13	30	32	17	5	1	0	0		85,308	*
84		31	24		-	6	8.3		No					0	0	0	1	8	24	33	24	9	2	0	0		96,967	*
83		31	25		-	5	4.1		No						0	0	0	4	16	31	30	15	4	0	0		107,243	*
82		30	25		-	6	1.7		No							0	0	2	9	25	33	22	8	1	0	0	115,685	*
81		30	26		-	5	0.6		No					0		0	0	1	5	18	31	28	13	3	0	0	123,819	*
80		29	26		-	6	0.2		No							0	0	0	2	11	27	33	20	6	1	0	130,297	*
79		29	27		-	5	0.0		No							0	0	0	1	6	20	32	27	11	2	0	134,481	*
78		28	27		-	6	0.0		No									0	0	3	13	29	32	18	5	0	135,626	*
77		28	28		-	5	0.0		No									0	0	1	8	23	34	25	9	1	134,523	*
76		27	28		-	6	0.0		No									0	0	0	4	16	31	31	14	2	130,568	*
75		27	29		-	5	Out		No										0	0	2	10	27	35	21	5	124,956	*
74		26	29		-	6	Out		No											0	1	6	21	36	28	8	118,287	*
73		26	30		-	5	Out		No											0	0	3	15	34	35	13	108,812	*
72		25	30		-	6	Out		No											0	0	2	10	29	40	20	97,857	*
71		25	31		-	5	Out		No											0	0	1	6	24	43	27	87,674	*
70		24	31		-	6	Out		No												0	0	3	18	43	36	76,514	*
69		24	32		-	5	Out		No												0	0	2	13	41	45	65,298	*
68		23	32		-	6	Out		No													0	1	8	37	54	55,177	*
67		23	33		-	5	Out		No													0	0	5	31	63	45,582	*
66		22	33		-	6	Out		No													0	0	3	26	71	36,988	*
65		22	34		-	5	Out		No													0	0	2	20	78	29,424	*
64		21	34		-	6	Out		No														0	1	16	83	22,571	*
63		21	35		-	5	Out		No														0	1	12	88	17,569	*
62		20	35		-	6	Out		No															0	8	91	13,211	*
61		20	36		-	5	Out		No															0	6	94	9,708	*
60		19	36		-	6	Out		No															0	4	96	6,936	*
59		19	37		-	5	Out		No																2	98	5,028	*
58		18	37		-	6	Out		No																2	98	3,369	*
57		18	38		-	5	Out		No																1	99	2,390	*
56		17	38		-	6	Out		No																1	99	1,490	*
55		17	39		-	5	Out		No																1	99	1,033	*
54		16	39		-	6	Out		No																0	100	643	*
53		16	40		-	5	Out		No																0	100	419	*
16	-52						Out		No																	100	779	*

Total:							10.2	%	0.0	%	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	6	7	9	10	12	13	13	13	13	2,502,400

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Detroit Red Wings vs Washington Capitals	+0.9+0.1+0.2-0.8-0.8-0.8
New York Rangers vs Philadelphia Flyers	+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1*+0.0+0.0
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Boston Bruins	+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0
Edmonton Oilers vs Anaheim Ducks	+0.0+0.1*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Calgary Flames vs Vegas Golden Knights	+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0
Ottawa Senators vs Dallas Stars	+0.1+0.1+0.1*+0.0+0.0-0.0
Florida Panthers vs Carolina Hurricanes	+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning	+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0
Colorado Avalanche vs Arizona Coyotes	+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1*+0.0+0.0
Nashville Predators vs St. Louis Blues	+0.0+0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.0
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Columbus Blue Jackets	+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0
New York Islanders vs New Jersey Devils	+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1*+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

138		61	0		-	0	100
113		47	11		-	3			100
111		46	12		-	3	50		50
110		43	10		-	8	20	30	10		30	10
109		44	12		-	5			18		64	9			9
108		43	12		-	6	5	21	26		37		5		5
107		43	13		-	5	4	18	20	6	26	12	4		10
106		43	14		-	4		14	17	5	33	16	6		9
105		42	14		-	5	1	6	12	2	29	26	9		14	1			2
104		42	15		-	4	0	3	9	7	20	24	10		20	3	0		3
103		41	15		-	5		4	7	6	16	22	16		22	4			4
102		40	15		-	6		1	4	4	9	23	19	1	23	9	1		7	0	0
101		40	16		-	5		0	3	3	4	19	17	2	26	12	1		12	1	0
100		39	16		-	6			1	3	1	15	16	3	22	20	2		13	1	2
99		39	17		-	5		0	1	2	1	11	14	5	16	27	3		18	3	2
98		38	17		-	6		0	0	1	0	6	10	7	12	29	4	0	20	5	4	0	0
97		38	18		-	5			0	1	0	3	6	7	8	30	6	0	23	9	5	0	0
96		37	18		-	6				0	0	2	4	7	4	27	8	1	23	15	10	1	0
95		37	19		-	5				0		1	2	6	2	23	7	2	20	22	14	2	1	0
94		36	19		-	6				0		0	1	4	0	17	7	4	16	28	16	4	2	0
93		36	20		-	5				0		0	0	3	0	12	5	5	10	33	20	8	4	0
92		35	20		-	6				0		0	0	2	0	7	4	6	6	33	20	14	6	1	0
91		35	21		-	5				0		0	0	1	0	4	2	6	2	31	17	23	10	3	1	0	0
90		34	21		-	6						0	0	0		2	1	5	1	25	12	31	13	7	2	0	0	0
89		34	22		-	5							0	0	0	1	0	4	0	19	6	35	14	12	6	2	0	0
88		33	22		-	6								0		0	0	3	0	12	3	34	12	16	12	6	2	0	0
87		33	23		-	5								0		0	0	2	0	7	1	29	8	16	19	12	5	1	0	0	0
86		32	23		-	6								0		0	0	1		4	0	21	4	13	20	20	12	5	1	0	0
85		32	24		-	5								0		0		0		2	0	13	1	7	16	23	20	11	4	1	0	0	0
84		31	24		-	6								0		0		0		1	0	8	0	3	10	20	24	19	10	3	1	0	0	0
83		31	25		-	5										0		0		0	0	4	0	1	4	13	22	25	18	9	3	1	0	0
82		30	25		-	6												0		0		2	0	0	1	6	15	24	25	17	8	2	0	0	0
81		30	26		-	5								0				0		0		1	0	0	0	2	8	17	25	24	15	6	2	0	0
80		29	26		-	6												0		0		0		0	0	1	3	9	19	26	23	13	5	1	0	0
79		29	27		-	5												0		0		0		0	0	0	1	4	11	22	26	21	11	3	1	0	0
78		28	27		-	6																0			0	0	0	1	5	14	24	26	19	8	2	0	0
77		28	28		-	5																0				0	0	0	2	7	17	26	26	15	5	1	0
76		27	28		-	6																0					0	0	1	3	10	21	28	23	11	3	0
75		27	29		-	5																					0	0	0	1	5	15	26	28	18	6	1
74		26	29		-	6																						0	0	0	2	8	20	30	26	11	2
73		26	30		-	5																							0	0	1	4	13	27	31	19	4
72		25	30		-	6																								0	0	2	8	21	33	27	8
71		25	31		-	5																									0	1	4	15	32	34	14
70		24	31		-	6																								0	0	0	2	10	27	39	22
69		24	32		-	5																								0		0	1	5	22	42	30
68		23	32		-	6																										0	0	3	16	41	40
67		23	33		-	5																										0	0	1	11	38	50
66		22	33		-	6																											0	1	7	33	60
65		22	34		-	5																											0	0	4	27	69
64		21	34		-	6																												0	2	22	76
63		21	35		-	5																											0	0	1	17	82
62		20	35		-	6																													1	12	87
61		20	36		-	5																													0	9	91
60		19	36		-	6																													0	6	94
59		19	37		-	5																													0	4	96
58		18	37		-	6																														3	97
57		18	38		-	5																														2	98
56		17	38		-	6																													0	1	99
55		17	39		-	5																														1	99
54		16	39		-	6																														1	99
53		16	40		-	5																														0	100
50	-52																																				100
49		14	42		-	5																														2	98
16	-48																																				100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	1	5	1	2	3	4	4	5	6	6	7	8	8	9	9	9	9