Dallas Stars Playoff Chances 2018-2019

Beat Pittsburgh Penguins 3-1, playoff odds up 2.2 to 94.6%

31 points 15 6-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Ottawa Senators vs Dallas Stars	-3.3-0.6-0.7+2.6+2.7+2.6		-2.2-0.6-0.6+1.8+1.7+1.7		-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Colorado Avalanche vs Arizona Coyotes	-0.0-0.5-0.1-0.2+0.2+0.3				-0.0*-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Winnipeg Jets vs Minnesota Wild	+0.1-0.1-0.3-0.4+0.0*+0.1
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning			-0.2-0.1-0.2+0.1+0.2+0.4		-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Boston Bruins			+0.2-0.1+0.1-0.2-0.3-0.1
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Columbus Blue Jackets			+0.2+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Dallas Stars finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

125	-151						In		99.0	%	100																1,763	*
124		45	12		-	3	In		97.6		100		0														1,027	*
123		44	12		-	4	In		97.1		100		0														1,604	*
122		44	13		-	3	In		94.4		99		1														2,524	*
121		43	13		-	4	In		92.1		99	0	1														3,794	*
120		42	13		-	5	In		90.1		99	0	1														5,602	*
119		42	14		-	4	In		85.5		98	0	2														8,061	*
118		41	14		-	5	In		81.4		96	0	3		0												11,241	*
117		41	15		-	4	In		75.7		95	0	5		0												15,362	*
116		40	15		-	5	In		67.9		93	1	7		0												20,755	*
115		40	16		-	4	In		60.3		90	1	9		0												27,088	*
114		39	16		-	5	In		51.7		86	2	12		0												34,683	*
113		39	17		-	4	In		42.3		81	2	16		0												43,883	*
112		38	17		-	5	In		32.9		75	3	21	0	1		0										53,272	*
111		38	18		-	4	In		24.3		69	4	26	0	2		0										64,034	*
110		37	18		-	5	In		17.3		61	5	31	0	3		0										76,115	*
109		37	19		-	4	In		11.0		52	6	37	0	5		0										87,323	*
108		36	19		-	5	In		6.4		44	8	42	0	7		0	0									99,073	*
107		36	20		-	4	In		3.4		35	8	46	0	10		0										109,501	*
106		35	20		-	5	In		1.6		26	9	48	1	15	0	1	0									118,816	*
105		35	21		-	4	In		0.7		19	9	49	1	20	0	1	0									126,945	*
104		34	21		-	5	In		0.2		13	9	48	2	26	0	3	0									133,047	*
103		34	22		-	4	100.0	%	0.1		8	8	44	4	32	0	5	0	0								137,238	*
102		33	22		-	5	100.0		0.0		5	7	38	5	38	0	7	0	0								137,788	*
101		33	23		-	4	100.0		0.0		2	5	31	7	43	1	11	1	0								135,753	*
100		32	23		-	5	100.0		No		1	4	23	8	46	1	16	1	0								131,732	*
99		32	24		-	4	100.0		No		0	2	16	9	46	3	22	2	0								125,908	*
98		31	24		-	5	99.9		No		0	1	10	9	43	5	28	4	0	0							117,485	*
97		31	25		-	4	99.7		No		0	1	5	8	38	7	34	7	0	0							107,978	*
96		30	25		-	5	99.2		No		0	0	3	6	30	10	39	11	1	0							97,308	*
95		30	26		-	4	98.1		No		0	0	1	4	22	12	42	17	2	0	0						86,006	*
94		29	26		-	5	95.7		No			0	0	3	15	13	42	23	4	0	0	0					74,720	*
93		29	27		-	4	91.2		No			0	0	2	8	12	38	30	8	1	0	0					63,246	*
92		28	27		-	5	83.6		No			0	0	1	4	11	32	36	14	3	0	0					53,095	*
91		28	28		-	4	72.2		No			0	0	0	2	8	24	38	21	6	1	0	0				43,736	*
90		27	28		-	5	58.0		No					0	1	6	16	35	28	11	3	0	0				35,529	*
89		27	29		-	4	42.1		No					0	0	4	9	29	33	19	6	1	0				27,792	*
88		26	29		-	5	28.4		No					0	0	2	5	21	33	26	11	2	0				21,891	*
87		26	30		-	4	16.4		No					0	0	1	2	13	29	31	18	5	1	0			16,690	*
86		25	30		-	5	8.7		No							1	1	7	21	33	25	10	2	0			12,458	*
85		25	31		-	4	3.9		No							0	0	3	14	29	31	16	5	0	0		9,234	*
84		24	31		-	5	1.8		No							0	0	2	8	23	32	25	10	1	0		6,484	*
83		24	32		-	4	0.6		No							0		0	4	16	30	31	16	3	0		4,724	*
82		23	32		-	5	0.1		No									0	2	9	25	33	23	6	1		3,382	*
81		23	33		-	4	0.0		No									0	1	5	20	32	29	12	1		2,195	*
80		22	33		-	5	Out		No										0	3	11	30	35	18	2		1,542	*
79		22	34		-	4	Out		No										0	1	7	24	38	24	5		1,005	*
78		21	34		-	5	Out		No												4	16	38	35	8		667	*
77		21	35		-	4	Out		No											0	2	11	30	41	15		427	*
76		20	35		-	5	Out		No												1	7	23	49	20		279	*
75		20	36		-	4	Out		No													3	22	51	24		157	*
74		20	37		-	3	Out		No												2	6	12	38	42		93	*
73		19	37		-	4	Out		No														7	41	52		61	*
72		18	37		-	5	Out		No														5	51	44		39	*
71		18	38		-	4	Out		No														11	33	56		18	*
70		17	38		-	5	Out		No														6	29	65		17	*
69		17	39		-	4	Out		No																100		5	*
68		17	40		-	3	Out		No															50	50		2	*
31	-67						Out		No																100		203	*

Total:							94.6	%	7.1	%	20	4	24	3	21	3	13	6	3	1	1	0	0	0	0		2,502,400

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Ottawa Senators vs Dallas Stars	+0.8+0.2+0.2-0.6-0.6-0.6
Colorado Avalanche vs Arizona Coyotes	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0*-0.1-0.1
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning	+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Nashville Predators vs St. Louis Blues	-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0
Winnipeg Jets vs Minnesota Wild	-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0
Edmonton Oilers vs Anaheim Ducks	-0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1-0.0
Detroit Red Wings vs Washington Capitals	+0.0+0.0-0.0*-0.0-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

128	-151						100
127		46	10		-	4	98	2
126		46	11		-	3	99	1
125		45	11		-	4	98	2
124		45	12		-	3	98	2			0
123		44	12		-	4	97	2			0
122		44	13		-	3	94	5			1
121		43	13		-	4	92	7	0		1
120		42	13		-	5	90	9	0		1
119		42	14		-	4	85	12	0		2
118		41	14		-	5	81	15	0		3				0
117		41	15		-	4	76	19	0		5	0			0
116		40	15		-	5	68	25	1		7	0			0
115		40	16		-	4	60	29	1	0	9	0			0
114		39	16		-	5	52	34	1	0	12	0			0
113		39	17		-	4	42	39	2	0	16	0			0
112		38	17		-	5	33	42	3	0	20	1	0		1				0
111		38	18		-	4	24	44	3	0	25	1	0		2	0			0
110		37	18		-	5	17	43	4	1	29	2	0		3	0			0
109		37	19		-	4	11	41	5	2	33	4	0	0	5	0			0
108		36	19		-	5	6	37	5	2	35	7	0	0	7	0			0		0
107		36	20		-	4	3	31	5	3	35	10	0	0	10	0			0
106		35	20		-	5	2	25	5	5	33	15	1	0	15	0	0		1	0	0
105		35	21		-	4	1	18	4	5	29	20	1	0	19	0	0		1	0	0
104		34	21		-	5	0	12	3	6	23	24	2	0	25	1	0		3	0	0
103		34	22		-	4	0	8	2	6	17	27	3	0	30	2	0		5	0	0		0
102		33	22		-	5	0	5	1	5	11	27	5	1	34	4	0		7	0	0		0
101		33	23		-	4	0	2	1	4	6	25	5	2	36	7	1		11	0	1		0
100		32	23		-	5		1	0	3	3	20	6	3	35	11	1	0	15	0	1		0
99		32	24		-	4		0	0	2	1	15	5	4	30	16	3	0	21	1	2		0
98		31	24		-	5		0	0	1	0	9	4	5	24	20	4	0	26	1	4	0	0	0
97		31	25		-	4		0	0	1	0	5	3	5	16	21	7	0	31	3	7	0	0	0
96		30	25		-	5		0	0	0	0	3	1	5	10	21	9	1	33	5	11	0	1	0
95		30	26		-	4		0	0	0	0	1	1	4	5	18	10	2	33	9	16	0	2	0	0
94		29	26		-	5				0		0	0	3	2	13	10	3	29	13	23	1	4	0	0	0
93		29	27		-	4				0		0	0	2	1	8	8	5	23	16	29	2	8	1	0	0
92		28	27		-	5				0		0	0	1	0	4	5	5	14	17	32	4	13	3	0	0
91		28	28		-	4				0		0	0	0	0	2	3	5	8	16	31	7	20	6	1	0	0
90		27	28		-	5							0	0	0	1	2	4	3	13	25	11	27	12	3	0	0
89		27	29		-	4								0		0	1	3	1	8	16	13	29	20	7	1	0	0
88		26	29		-	5								0		0	0	2	0	5	8	13	26	26	15	4	1	0	0
87		26	30		-	4								0		0	0	1	0	2	3	10	19	28	22	10	3	0	0	0	0
86		25	30		-	5											0	1	0	1	1	6	10	25	28	18	8	2	0	0	0
85		25	31		-	4											0	0		0	0	3	5	15	25	25	17	7	2	1	0
84		24	31		-	5												0		0	0	2	1	7	17	25	24	16	6	2	1	0
83		24	32		-	4												0				0	0	2	9	18	26	23	14	6	1	0
82		23	32		-	5																0		0	4	10	20	25	22	14	5	1	0
81		23	33		-	4																0		0	1	5	13	20	26	19	12	4	1	0
80		22	33		-	5																			0	1	5	13	22	25	19	10	4	1	0
79		22	34		-	4																				0	2	6	14	25	25	17	8	3	0
78		21	34		-	5																					1	3	7	18	26	23	14	6	1	0
77		21	35		-	4																						1	3	10	18	29	19	13	8
76		20	35		-	5																						1	1	7	9	21	32	18	10	2	0
75		20	36		-	4																								2	6	16	29	24	17	6
74		20	37		-	3																									2	17	25	24	23	9	1
73		19	37		-	4																										8	11	30	26	21	3
72		18	37		-	5																										3	15	31	23	18	10
71		18	38		-	4																										6	6	22	22	33	11
70		17	38		-	5																										6		12	12	65	6
69		17	39		-	4																													20	80
68		17	40		-	3																													50		50
67		16	40		-	4																															100
65		14	40		-	6																														50	50
31		0	60		-	0																															100

Total:							7	13	2	2	13	11	2	1	15	6	2	1	10	3	5	1	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0