Pittsburgh Penguins Playoff Chances 2018-2019

Lost to Dallas Stars 1-3, playoff odds down 2.8 to 10.4%

15 points 6 11-3

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Boston Bruins	+4.1+4.2+3.8-1.3-1.2-5.4		+0.3+0.3+0.2-0.3-0.2-0.5		+0.4+0.4+0.4-0.1-0.1-0.5
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning	+0.2+0.1-0.1+0.0-0.2-0.2		-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Pittsburgh Penguins finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

118	-139						In		Yes		100																201	*
113		47	11		-	4	In		No			100															1
112		45	10		-	7	In		No						100												1
111		45	11		-	6	In		50.0	%	50	33	17														6	*
110		45	12		-	5	In		25.0		25	25	50														4	*
109		44	12		-	6	In		No		17	33	50														12	*
108		44	13		-	5	In		4.8		14	19	48	10	10												21	*
107		43	13		-	6	In		4.8		21	19	43	2	14												42	*
106		43	14		-	5	In		No		9	22	47	4	15		3										92	*
105		42	14		-	6	In		0.8		7	17	46	12	17		2										133	*
104		42	15		-	5	In		0.4		4	12	43	10	28	0	3										249	*
103		41	15		-	6	In		No		1	7	38	17	31	0	5	0									393	*
102		41	16		-	5	In		No		1	8	31	16	36	1	7										590	*
101		40	16		-	6	In		No		0	4	22	19	43	1	10	1									949	*
100		40	17		-	5	In		No		0	4	16	18	43	2	16	1									1,449	*
99		39	17		-	6	In		No		0	2	11	17	43	3	21	2									2,113	*
98		39	18		-	5	In		No			1	6	15	41	5	28	4									3,133	*
97		38	18		-	6	99.8	%	No		0	1	4	12	37	6	34	6	0								4,737	*
96		38	19		-	5	99.6		No			0	2	9	30	8	39	10	0								6,526	*
95		37	19		-	6	99.1		No			0	1	7	24	10	42	15	1	0							8,982	*
94		37	20		-	5	98.2		No			0	0	4	17	11	44	22	2	0	0						12,541	*
93		36	20		-	6	96.3		No			0	0	3	11	11	44	28	4	0	0						16,342	*
92		36	21		-	5	92.7		No			0	0	2	7	9	40	35	7	1	0						21,569	*
91		35	21		-	6	86.3		No				0	1	4	8	34	40	12	2	0						27,812	*
90		35	22		-	5	77.8		No					0	2	6	26	43	18	4	0	0					35,123	*
89		34	22		-	6	66.4		No					0	1	4	19	42	25	7	1	0					43,467	*
88		34	23		-	5	52.9		No					0	0	3	12	38	32	13	2	0	0				52,499	*
87		33	23		-	6	38.9		No					0	0	2	7	30	36	19	5	1	0				63,001	*
86		33	24		-	5	26.4		No					0	0	1	4	22	35	26	10	2	0	0			73,796	*
85		32	24		-	6	16.1		No					0	0	0	2	14	31	32	16	4	1	0			84,502	*
84		32	25		-	5	8.7		No						0	0	1	8	24	34	23	9	2	0	0		95,389	*
83		31	25		-	6	4.3		No					0	0	0	0	4	16	31	30	15	4	0	0		105,987	*
82		31	26		-	5	1.8		No							0	0	2	10	25	33	22	7	1	0	0	115,102	*
81		30	26		-	6	0.7		No							0	0	1	5	18	32	28	13	3	0	0	123,076	*
80		30	27		-	5	0.2		No							0	0	0	2	12	27	32	20	6	1	0	128,795	*
79		29	27		-	6	0.1		No								0	0	1	6	20	33	26	11	2	0	132,786	*
78		29	28		-	5	0.0		No									0	0	3	14	29	31	17	4	0	133,960	*
77		28	28		-	6	0.0		No									0	0	1	8	23	34	24	8	1	133,399	*
76		28	29		-	5	0.0		No									0	0	1	4	17	32	31	14	2	130,539	*
75		27	29		-	6	Out		No										0	0	2	11	27	35	21	4	125,071	*
74		27	30		-	5	Out		No										0	0	1	6	21	36	28	8	118,195	*
73		26	30		-	6	Out		No										0	0	0	3	15	34	35	12	109,000	*
72		26	31		-	5	Out		No											0	0	2	10	30	40	19	99,283	*
71		25	31		-	6	Out		No												0	1	6	24	43	27	88,247	*
70		25	32		-	5	Out		No												0	0	3	18	43	35	77,167	*
69		24	32		-	6	Out		No												0	0	2	13	41	45	66,315	*
68		24	33		-	5	Out		No												0	0	1	9	37	54	55,965	*
67		23	33		-	6	Out		No													0	0	6	32	61	46,180	*
66		23	34		-	5	Out		No													0	0	3	27	70	38,032	*
65		22	34		-	6	Out		No														0	2	22	77	30,209	*
64		22	35		-	5	Out		No														0	1	16	83	23,329	*
63		21	35		-	6	Out		No														0	1	13	87	18,232	*
62		21	36		-	5	Out		No														0	0	9	91	13,922	*
61		20	36		-	6	Out		No															0	6	93	10,307	*
60		20	37		-	5	Out		No															0	4	96	7,209	*
59		19	37		-	6	Out		No																3	97	5,291	*
58		19	38		-	5	Out		No															0	2	98	3,707	*
57		18	38		-	6	Out		No																1	99	2,478	*
56		18	39		-	5	Out		No																1	99	1,720	*
55		17	39		-	6	Out		No																0	100	1,143	*
54		17	40		-	5	Out		No																0	100	731	*
53		16	40		-	6	Out		No																0	100	466	*
51	-52						Out		No																	100	451	*
50		15	42		-	5	Out		No																1	99	96	*
15	-49						Out		No																	100	335	*

Total:							10.4	%	0.0	%	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	6	7	9	10	12	13	13	13	13	2,502,400

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Boston Bruins	-0.8-0.9-0.7+0.2+0.2+1.0
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Columbus Blue Jackets	-0.1-0.0*+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0
New York Rangers vs Philadelphia Flyers	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0*+0.1-0.0
New York Islanders vs New Jersey Devils	-0.0*+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.0
Edmonton Oilers vs Anaheim Ducks	-0.0+0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0-0.0
Colorado Avalanche vs Arizona Coyotes	-0.0-0.1+0.0+0.0*-0.0+0.0
Detroit Red Wings vs Washington Capitals	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0*+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

118	-139						100
113		47	11		-	4			100
112		45	10		-	7									100
111		45	11		-	6	50		33		17
110		45	12		-	5	25		25		50
109		44	12		-	6		17	33		50
108		44	13		-	5	5	10	19		33	14	10		10
107		43	13		-	6	5	17	17	2	36	7	2		14
106		43	14		-	5		9	17	4	38	9	4		15				3
105		42	14		-	6	1	6	17	1	28	18	12		15	2			2
104		42	15		-	5	0	3	7	5	20	22	10		24	4	0		3
103		41	15		-	6		1	4	3	15	22	16	1	26	5	0		5		0
102		41	16		-	5		1	3	4	8	23	15	1	29	7	1		7
101		40	16		-	6		0	2	2	4	19	17	2	30	13	1		9	0	1
100		40	17		-	5		0	1	3	2	14	15	3	25	18	2		15	1	1
99		39	17		-	6		0	1	2	1	10	12	5	20	24	3		18	2	2
98		39	18		-	5			0	1	0	6	9	6	13	28	4	0	23	5	4	0
97		38	18		-	6		0	0	1	0	3	6	6	8	29	5	1	25	9	6	0	0
96		38	19		-	5				0	0	2	4	6	4	26	7	1	25	15	10	0	0
95		37	19		-	6				0		1	2	5	2	23	7	2	21	21	14	1	1	0
94		37	20		-	5				0		0	1	4	1	17	7	4	17	27	18	4	2	0	0
93		36	20		-	6				0		0	0	3	0	11	5	5	11	32	21	7	3	0	0
92		36	21		-	5				0		0	0	1	0	7	3	6	6	34	21	14	6	1	0	0	0
91		35	21		-	6						0	0	1	0	4	2	6	3	31	17	22	10	3	1	0	0
90		35	22		-	5							0	0		2	1	5	1	25	13	30	13	6	2	0	0	0
89		34	22		-	6								0		1	0	4	0	19	7	35	14	12	5	2	0	0	0
88		34	23		-	5								0		0	0	3	0	12	3	35	12	16	12	5	1	0	0
87		33	23		-	6								0		0	0	2	0	7	1	29	8	17	18	12	5	1	0	0	0
86		33	24		-	5								0		0	0	1	0	4	0	21	4	13	21	19	11	4	1	0	0	0
85		32	24		-	6								0		0	0	0		2	0	14	2	8	17	23	19	10	4	1	0	0	0
84		32	25		-	5										0		0		1	0	8	0	3	11	20	24	19	9	3	1	0	0
83		31	25		-	6								0		0		0		0	0	4	0	1	5	13	23	25	18	8	3	1	0	0
82		31	26		-	5												0		0		2	0	0	2	7	16	24	24	16	7	2	0	0	0
81		30	26		-	6												0		0		1	0	0	0	2	8	18	25	24	14	6	2	0	0	0
80		30	27		-	5												0		0		0		0	0	1	3	10	19	26	22	13	5	1	0	0
79		29	27		-	6														0		0			0	0	1	4	12	22	26	20	10	3	1	0	0
78		29	28		-	5																0			0	0	0	1	6	14	24	26	18	8	2	0	0
77		28	28		-	6																0				0	0	0	2	8	18	27	25	15	5	1	0
76		28	29		-	5																0					0	0	1	3	11	22	28	22	10	3	0
75		27	29		-	6																					0	0	0	1	5	15	26	28	18	6	1
74		27	30		-	5																						0	0	0	2	9	21	30	25	11	2
73		26	30		-	6																							0	0	1	4	14	28	31	18	4
72		26	31		-	5																								0	0	2	8	22	34	26	8
71		25	31		-	6																								0	0	1	4	16	32	33	14
70		25	32		-	5																								0	0	0	2	10	28	39	21
69		24	32		-	6																									0	0	1	6	22	42	30
68		24	33		-	5																									0	0	0	3	16	41	40
67		23	33		-	6																										0	0	1	11	38	49
66		23	34		-	5																											0	1	7	33	59
65		22	34		-	6																											0	0	4	28	67
64		22	35		-	5																												0	2	22	76
63		21	35		-	6																												0	1	17	81
62		21	36		-	5																												0	1	13	87
61		20	36		-	6																												0	0	9	90
60		20	37		-	5																													0	6	93
59		19	37		-	6																													0	4	96
58		19	38		-	5																													0	3	97
57		18	38		-	6																														2	98
56		18	39		-	5																														1	99
55		17	39		-	6																														1	99
54		17	40		-	5																														0	100
53		16	40		-	6																														0	100
52		16	41		-	5																														0	100
51		15	41		-	6																															100
50		15	42		-	5																														1	99
15	-49																																				100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	2	1	5	1	2	3	4	4	5	6	6	7	8	8	9	9	9	9