Vegas Golden Knights Playoff Chances 2018-2019

Beat Arizona Coyotes 3-1, playoff odds up 9.5 to 61.9%

29 points 13 7-3

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Calgary Flames vs Vegas Golden Knights	-4.3-0.6*-0.1+5.2+5.2+5.7		-0.4-0.1*-0.0+0.5+0.5+0.6		-0.5-0.1-0.0+0.5+0.5+0.6
Colorado Avalanche vs Arizona Coyotes	+0.5+0.2-0.0-0.6-0.4-0.2				+0.1+0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Vegas Golden Knights finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

122	-147						In		99.1	%	100																232	*
121		44	11		-	4	In		84.4		97	3															32	*
120		43	11		-	5	In		91.2		97	3															34	*
119		43	12		-	4	In		87.4		98	2															87	*
118		42	12		-	5	In		81.2		95	5															149	*
117		42	13		-	4	In		78.3		93	7															272	*
116		41	13		-	5	In		66.8		93	6	1														431	*
115		41	14		-	4	In		63.4		89	11	1														691	*
114		40	14		-	5	In		49.9		81	17	1														1,120	*
113		40	15		-	4	In		41.4		77	21	2	0													1,723	*
112		39	15		-	5	In		31.9		70	26	4														2,780	*
111		39	16		-	4	In		23.6		64	32	4	0													3,923	*
110		38	16		-	5	In		15.3		54	39	6	0	0												5,701	*
109		37	16		-	6	In		9.5		46	46	8	0	0												8,005	*
108		37	17		-	5	In		5.3		36	51	11	1	0	0											11,179	*
107		36	17		-	6	In		2.6		27	56	13	3	1	0	0										15,286	*
106		36	18		-	5	In		1.1		20	59	15	5	1	0	0										20,336	*
105		35	18		-	6	In		0.4		13	60	17	8	2	0	0										26,590	*
104		35	19		-	5	In		0.1		8	59	17	13	3	0	0	0									33,961	*
103		34	19		-	6	In		0.0		4	55	16	20	4	1	0										42,533	*
102		34	20		-	5	In		0.0		2	49	15	26	6	1	0	0									52,082	*
101		33	20		-	6	In		No		1	42	11	33	8	3	1	0									62,428	*
100		33	21		-	5	100.0	%	No		0	35	8	39	10	6	1	0	0								74,406	*
99		32	21		-	6	100.0		No		0	28	5	43	11	11	2	0	0	0							85,302	*
98		32	22		-	5	99.9		No		0	21	3	44	11	17	3	1	0								96,463	*
97		31	22		-	6	99.8		No		0	15	1	43	9	24	5	2	0	0	0						107,400	*
96		31	23		-	5	99.2		No		0	11	1	39	8	32	7	3	1	0							117,374	*
95		30	23		-	6	98.0		No			7	0	33	5	38	8	6	2	0	0						125,897	*
94		30	24		-	5	95.2		No			4	0	27	3	42	9	10	4	1	0	0					131,578	*
93		29	24		-	6	90.1		No			2	0	20	2	43	9	14	8	2	0	0					136,049	*
92		29	25		-	5	81.9		No			1	0	14	1	40	8	18	14	4	0	0					136,845	*
91		28	25		-	6	70.6		No			1		9	0	36	6	19	20	8	1	0	0				136,969	*
90		28	26		-	5	56.6		No			0		6	0	29	4	18	26	14	3	0	0				132,489	*
89		27	26		-	6	42.1		No			0		3	0	22	2	15	28	21	7	1	0	0			127,448	*
88		27	27		-	5	29.1		No			0		2	0	16	1	10	27	28	13	3	0	0			119,296	*
87		26	27		-	6	18.1		No			0		1	0	10	1	7	23	32	20	6	1	0			109,826	*
86		26	28		-	5	10.2		No			0		0		6	0	3	18	32	27	11	2	0	0		99,651	*
85		25	28		-	6	5.0		No			0		0		3	0	2	11	28	32	18	5	1	0		87,739	*
84		25	29		-	5	2.5		No			0		0		2	0	1	6	22	33	25	9	1	0		76,197	*
83		24	29		-	6	1.1		No					0		1	0	0	3	15	31	31	15	3	0		65,298	*
82		24	30		-	5	0.4		No					0		0		0	1	9	25	34	23	6	1		54,612	*
81		23	30		-	6	0.2		No							0		0	1	5	19	34	29	11	1		44,855	*
80		23	31		-	5	0.1		No							0		0	0	2	13	30	35	17	2		36,514	*
79		22	31		-	6	0.0		No							0		0	0	1	7	24	38	25	5		28,930	*
78		22	32		-	5	0.0		No							0			0	0	4	18	36	33	8		22,048	*
77		21	32		-	6	0.0		No							0				0	2	12	33	39	14		16,964	*
76		21	33		-	5	Out		No											0	1	7	29	44	19		12,674	*
75		20	33		-	6	Out		No											0	0	4	22	46	27		9,087	*
74		20	34		-	5	Out		No												0	2	17	44	36		6,572	*
73		20	35		-	4	Out		No												0	1	11	42	45		4,749	*
72		19	35		-	5	Out		No													0	7	39	53		3,226	*
71		19	36		-	4	Out		No													0	5	34	61		2,190	*
70		18	36		-	5	Out		No													0	3	28	69		1,484	*
69		18	37		-	4	Out		No														1	23	76		976	*
68		17	37		-	5	Out		No														1	20	79		598	*
67		17	38		-	4	Out		No														1	12	87		370	*
66		16	38		-	5	Out		No															10	90		245	*
65		16	39		-	4	Out		No															5	95		151	*
64		15	39		-	5	Out		No															5	95		62	*
63		15	40		-	4	Out		No															9	91		43	*
62		14	40		-	5	Out		No															6	94		16	*
29	-61						Out		No																100		232	*

Total:							61.9	%	0.3	%	2	11	2	16	3	19	3	7	9	9	7	6	4	2	1		2,502,400

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Calgary Flames vs Vegas Golden Knights	+0.9+0.1+0.1-1.1-1.1-1.2
Colorado Avalanche vs Arizona Coyotes	-0.1*-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Edmonton Oilers vs Anaheim Ducks	-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0*-0.0+0.0
Winnipeg Jets vs Minnesota Wild	-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0
Detroit Red Wings vs Washington Capitals	-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0*+0.0-0.0
Nashville Predators vs St. Louis Blues	-0.0+0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0-0.0
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Columbus Blue Jackets	-0.0-0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

125	-147						100
123		45	10		-	4	90	10
122		44	10		-	5	94	6
121		44	11		-	4	84	13	3
120		43	11		-	5	91	6	3
119		43	12		-	4	87	10	2
118		42	12		-	5	81	13	5
117		42	13		-	4	78	15	6	0
116		41	13		-	5	67	26	6		1
115		41	14		-	4	63	25	11		1
114		40	14		-	5	50	31	17	1	1	0
113		40	15		-	4	41	36	19	1	2		0
112		39	15		-	5	32	38	23	3	4	0
111		39	16		-	4	24	40	28	4	4	0	0
110		38	16		-	5	15	39	32	7	6	0	0		0
109		37	16		-	6	9	36	35	11	8	1	0		0
108		37	17		-	5	5	31	35	17	9	1	1		0		0
107		36	17		-	6	3	25	33	24	10	3	3	0	1		0		0
106		36	18		-	5	1	18	29	30	11	5	5	0	1	0	0		0
105		35	18		-	6	0	12	24	36	10	7	8	0	2	0	0		0
104		35	19		-	5	0	8	18	40	8	8	13	1	3	0	0		0		0
103		34	19		-	6	0	4	13	42	6	10	18	2	4	0	1		0
102		34	20		-	5	0	2	8	41	4	11	22	4	6	1	1		0		0
101		33	20		-	6		1	5	38	2	9	25	8	7	1	3	0	1	0	0
100		33	21		-	5		0	3	33	1	7	26	13	7	2	6	0	1	0	0		0
99		32	21		-	6		0	1	27	0	5	24	19	7	4	11	0	2	0	0		0	0
98		32	22		-	5		0	1	21	0	3	20	25	6	5	16	0	3	0	1		0
97		31	22		-	6		0	0	15	0	1	14	28	4	5	23	1	5	0	2	0	0	0	0
96		31	23		-	5		0	0	11	0	1	9	29	2	5	28	3	6	1	3	0	1	0
95		30	23		-	6			0	7	0	0	5	28	1	4	31	7	7	2	6	0	2	0	0
94		30	24		-	5			0	4		0	3	24	0	3	30	11	6	3	10	0	4	1	0	0
93		29	24		-	6			0	2		0	1	19	0	2	27	16	5	4	14	1	8	2	0	0
92		29	25		-	5				1		0	0	14	0	1	20	20	3	4	16	2	14	4	0	0	0
91		28	25		-	6			0	1			0	9	0	0	14	22	2	4	15	4	20	8	2	0	0
90		28	26		-	5				0			0	5		0	8	21	1	3	12	6	24	14	4	1	0	0
89		27	26		-	6				0			0	3		0	4	18	0	2	8	7	25	22	9	2	0	0	0
88		27	27		-	5				0			0	2		0	2	14	0	1	4	7	21	27	16	5	1	0	0	0
87		26	27		-	6				0				1		0	1	10	0	1	1	5	14	27	24	12	4	1	0	0
86		26	28		-	5				0				0			0	6	0	0	0	3	8	21	28	20	9	3	1	0	0
85		25	28		-	6				0				0			0	3		0	0	2	3	13	24	26	18	8	2	0	0	0
84		25	29		-	5				0				0			0	2		0	0	1	1	6	16	25	24	16	7	2	0	0	0	0
83		24	29		-	6								0			0	1		0	0	0	0	2	8	18	25	23	14	6	2	0	0	0
82		24	30		-	5								0				0				0	0	1	3	10	19	25	22	13	5	1	0	0	0
81		23	30		-	6												0				0	0	0	1	4	11	20	25	21	12	4	1	0	0
80		23	31		-	5												0				0		0	0	1	5	13	22	25	19	10	3	1	0	0
79		22	31		-	6												0				0		0	0	0	2	6	15	24	25	18	8	2	0	0
78		22	32		-	5												0							0	0	0	2	8	17	25	24	15	6	1	0	0
77		21	32		-	6												0								0	0	1	3	10	20	26	23	12	4	1	0
76		21	33		-	5																					0	0	1	4	13	25	27	20	8	2	0
75		20	33		-	6																						0	0	2	7	17	27	27	15	5	0
74		20	34		-	5																							0	1	3	11	22	30	23	9	1
73		20	35		-	4																								0	1	5	15	27	31	17	4
72		19	35		-	5																								0	0	2	10	23	32	25	7
71		19	36		-	4																									0	1	5	16	31	35	12
70		18	36		-	5																									0	0	2	13	29	36	20
69		18	37		-	4																										0	1	7	22	41	29
68		17	37		-	5																										0	0	3	17	42	37
67		17	38		-	4																											0	1	11	38	50
66		16	38		-	5																												0	6	33	60
65		16	39		-	4																												1	4	29	66
64		15	39		-	5																													8	23	69
63		15	40		-	4																														23	77
62		14	40		-	5																														19	81
61		14	41		-	4																													6	6	88
29	-60																																				100

Total:							0	1	2	9	1	1	6	10	1	1	11	8	2	1	5	2	7	7	5	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0