Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Colorado Avalanche Playoff Chances 2018-2019

Beat Los Angeles Kings 8-2, playoff odds up 5 to 94.6%

29 points 14 6-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Colorado Avalanche vs Arizona Coyotes	+3.2+2.7+2.9-1.8-1.7-5.2		+0.9+0.9+0.9-0.5-0.6-1.5		+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.2-0.2-0.5
Ottawa Senators vs Dallas Stars	+0.3+0.3+0.0-0.5-0.6-0.2		+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.1-0.2-0.1		+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0
Winnipeg Jets vs Minnesota Wild	+0.2-0.2-0.2-0.5-0.6*-0.1
Nashville Predators vs St. Louis Blues	-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.5*-0.2+0.3				+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning	-0.1+0.1-0.2+0.1-0.1+0.2		-0.1-0.1-0.2+0.1*-0.0+0.2		-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0*-0.0+0.1
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Boston Bruins			+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Columbus Blue Jackets			+0.1-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Colorado Avalanche finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

126	-151						In		99.3	%	100																1,210	*
125		46	11		-	4	In		99.2		100		0														708	*
124		46	12		-	3	In		98.0		100		0														1,134	*
123		45	12		-	4	In		96.6		100	0	0														1,833	*
122		45	13		-	3	In		94.3		100		0														2,733	*
121		44	13		-	4	In		93.1		99	0	1														3,984	*
120		43	13		-	5	In		90.1		99	0	1														5,817	*
119		43	14		-	4	In		87.3		98	0	2		0												8,555	*
118		42	14		-	5	In		82.3		97	0	3														11,676	*
117		42	15		-	4	In		76.2		95	0	4		0												16,332	*
116		41	15		-	5	In		69.6		93	1	6		0												21,385	*
115		41	16		-	4	In		61.5		90	1	9		0												28,237	*
114		40	16		-	5	In		52.4		86	2	12		0												35,683	*
113		40	17		-	4	In		43.4		82	2	15	0	0												44,517	*
112		39	17		-	5	In		34.0		75	3	21	0	1		0										54,677	*
111		39	18		-	4	In		25.2		69	4	25	0	2		0										65,462	*
110		38	18		-	5	In		17.6		62	5	30	0	3		0										76,576	*
109		38	19		-	4	In		11.2		53	7	36	0	4		0										87,926	*
108		37	19		-	5	In		6.6		44	8	41	0	7		0	0									100,241	*
107		37	20		-	4	In		3.5		35	9	45	0	10	0	0	0									110,047	*
106		36	20		-	5	In		1.7		26	10	48	1	15	0	1	0									119,390	*
105		36	21		-	4	In		0.7		19	10	49	1	20	0	2	0									126,797	*
104		35	21		-	5	In		0.2		13	9	47	2	26	0	3	0									132,861	*
103		35	22		-	4	In		0.1		8	8	44	4	32	0	5	0									136,436	*
102		34	22		-	5	100.0	%	0.0		5	7	38	5	38	0	8	0	0								136,140	*
101		34	23		-	4	100.0		0.0		2	5	31	7	43	1	11	1	0								134,906	*
100		33	23		-	5	100.0		No		1	4	23	8	45	1	16	1	0								130,927	*
99		33	24		-	4	100.0		No		0	2	16	9	45	3	22	2	0								124,082	*
98		32	24		-	5	99.9		No		0	1	10	9	43	5	28	4	0								116,579	*
97		32	25		-	4	99.7		No		0	1	5	8	37	7	34	7	0	0							106,585	*
96		31	25		-	5	99.2		No		0	0	3	6	30	10	39	11	1	0	0						95,834	*
95		31	26		-	4	98.0		No		0	0	1	4	21	12	42	17	2	0	0						85,195	*
94		30	26		-	5	95.7		No			0	0	3	14	13	42	23	4	0	0						73,624	*
93		30	27		-	4	91.0		No			0	0	2	8	12	38	30	8	1	0	0					62,979	*
92		29	27		-	5	83.2		No			0	0	1	4	10	32	35	14	3	0	0					52,917	*
91		29	28		-	4	72.4		No			0		0	2	8	24	38	21	6	1	0					43,435	*
90		28	28		-	5	58.5		No					0	1	6	17	35	28	11	2	0	0				34,821	*
89		28	29		-	4	43.0		No					0	0	4	10	29	33	18	5	1	0	0			27,912	*
88		27	29		-	5	28.3		No					0	0	2	5	21	33	25	11	2	0	0			21,977	*
87		27	30		-	4	16.7		No					0	0	1	2	13	29	31	18	5	1	0	0		16,641	*
86		26	30		-	5	9.1		No							1	1	8	23	32	24	10	2	0	0		12,458	*
85		26	31		-	4	4.4		No							0	0	4	15	29	31	16	4	0	0		9,266	*
84		25	31		-	5	1.5		No							0	0	1	10	23	32	25	8	1	0		6,730	*
83		25	32		-	4	0.5		No							0	0	0	5	17	31	30	15	3	0		4,879	*
82		24	32		-	5	0.2		No							0		0	2	11	28	33	21	5	0		3,312	*
81		24	33		-	4	0.0		No									0	1	6	19	34	28	11	1		2,347	*
80		23	33		-	5	Out		No										1	3	13	33	34	14	2		1,566	*
79		23	34		-	4	Out		No											1	8	23	41	22	4		1,071	*
78		22	34		-	5	Out		No											1	4	18	35	34	8		712	*
77		22	35		-	4	Out		No										0	0	2	12	39	35	11		448	*
76		21	35		-	5	Out		No												1	11	24	47	18		262	*
75		21	36		-	4	Out		No													5	22	51	22		156	*
74		20	36		-	5	Out		No													3	15	49	33		95	*
73		20	37		-	4	Out		No													2	20	36	43		56	*
72		20	38		-	3	Out		No														6	50	44		32	*
71		19	38		-	4	Out		No														7	47	47		15	*
70		18	38		-	5	Out		No															25	75		12	*
29	-69						Out		No																100		212	*

Total:							94.6	%	7.5	%	21	4	24	3	21	3	13	6	3	1	1	0	0	0	0		2,502,400

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Colorado Avalanche vs Arizona Coyotes	-0.6-0.5-0.6+0.3+0.3+1.0
Ottawa Senators vs Dallas Stars	-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning	+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.1
Nashville Predators vs St. Louis Blues	-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0
Winnipeg Jets vs Minnesota Wild	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1*+0.0+0.0
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Boston Bruins	-0.0-0.0*+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0
New York Rangers vs Philadelphia Flyers	+0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Columbus Blue Jackets	-0.0*-0.0+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

128	-151						100
127		47	10		-	4	100	0
126		47	11		-	3	98	2
125		46	11		-	4	99	1			0
124		46	12		-	3	98	2			0
123		45	12		-	4	97	3	0		0
122		45	13		-	3	94	5			0
121		44	13		-	4	93	6	0		1
120		43	13		-	5	90	9	0		1
119		43	14		-	4	87	11	0		2				0
118		42	14		-	5	82	15	0		3
117		42	15		-	4	76	19	0		4				0
116		41	15		-	5	70	24	1		6	0			0
115		41	16		-	4	61	29	1	0	9	0			0
114		40	16		-	5	52	34	2	0	12	0			0
113		40	17		-	4	43	39	2	0	15	0	0		0
112		39	17		-	5	34	41	3	0	20	1	0		1				0
111		39	18		-	4	25	44	4	0	24	1	0		2	0			0
110		38	18		-	5	18	44	4	1	28	2	0		3				0
109		38	19		-	4	11	42	5	2	32	4	0		4	0			0
108		37	19		-	5	7	37	6	3	34	6	0		7	0			0		0
107		37	20		-	4	4	32	5	4	35	10	0	0	10	0	0		0		0
106		36	20		-	5	2	25	5	5	33	15	1	0	14	0	0		1		0
105		36	21		-	4	1	18	4	6	29	20	1	0	19	0	0		2		0
104		35	21		-	5	0	13	3	6	23	24	2	0	25	1	0		3	0	0
103		35	22		-	4	0	8	2	6	17	27	3	0	30	2	0		5	0	0
102		34	22		-	5	0	4	1	6	11	27	5	1	34	4	0		7	0	0		0
101		34	23		-	4	0	2	1	4	6	25	5	2	35	7	1	0	11	0	1		0
100		33	23		-	5		1	0	3	3	20	6	3	34	11	1	0	16	0	1		0
99		33	24		-	4		0	0	2	1	15	5	4	30	15	3	0	21	1	2		0
98		32	24		-	5		0	0	1	0	9	4	5	24	19	4	0	27	2	4	0	0
97		32	25		-	4		0	0	1	0	5	3	5	16	21	7	0	31	3	7	0	0	0
96		31	25		-	5		0	0	0	0	3	1	5	10	21	9	1	34	5	11	0	1	0	0
95		31	26		-	4		0		0	0	1	1	4	4	17	10	2	34	9	17	0	2	0	0
94		30	26		-	5				0		0	0	3	2	12	9	3	29	13	23	1	4	0	0
93		30	27		-	4				0		0	0	2	1	8	8	5	22	16	29	1	8	1	0	0
92		29	27		-	5				0		0	0	1	0	4	5	5	14	18	32	4	14	3	0	0
91		29	28		-	4				0			0	0	0	2	3	5	8	16	31	7	20	6	1	0
90		28	28		-	5							0	0	0	1	2	4	4	13	25	11	26	12	3	0	0
89		28	29		-	4							0	0		0	1	3	1	9	16	13	29	20	7	1	0	0
88		27	29		-	5								0		0	0	2	0	5	8	13	26	27	14	4	1	0	0
87		27	30		-	4								0		0	0	1	0	2	3	10	19	29	22	10	3	0	0	0
86		26	30		-	5											0	1	0	1	1	7	10	24	27	18	8	2	0	0
85		26	31		-	4												0		0	0	4	4	15	27	24	16	7	2	0	0
84		25	31		-	5												0		0	0	1	2	8	17	26	23	15	6	2	0	0	0
83		25	32		-	4												0		0		0	0	3	10	19	24	23	13	5	1	0
82		24	32		-	5												0				0	0	1	4	11	20	25	22	12	5	1	0
81		24	33		-	4																0		0	1	4	11	21	24	22	12	4	1	0
80		23	33		-	5																			0	2	6	14	22	25	19	9	2	1	0
79		23	34		-	4																				0	1	6	17	24	24	17	8	1	0	0
78		22	34		-	5																					1	3	10	16	26	23	14	4	2
77		22	35		-	4																						1	3	13	21	24	23	12	3	1
76		21	35		-	5																						0	0	6	16	19	28	21	8	1
75		21	36		-	4																								1	8	22	24	22	17	3	2
74		20	36		-	5																								1	2	18	17	31	24	5	2
73		20	37		-	4																								2	2	5	14	27	29	20	2
72		20	38		-	3																										3		31	31	25	9
71		19	38		-	4																												20	40	40
70		18	38		-	5																												8	42	42	8
69		17	38		-	6																												25		50	25
68		16	38		-	7																													17	33	50
29	-67																																				100

Total:							8	13	2	2	13	11	2	1	15	6	2	1	10	3	5	1	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0