Calgary Flames Playoff Chances 2018-2019

Lost to Winnipeg Jets 1-2 (so), playoff odds up 0.7 to 87%

28 points 12 6-4

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Calgary Flames vs Vegas Golden Knights	+3.1+3.0+2.7-1.5-1.6-5.0		+0.9+0.8+1.0-0.5-0.6-1.5		+0.4+0.3+0.3-0.2-0.2-0.6
Colorado Avalanche vs Arizona Coyotes	+0.3+0.1+0.0-0.5*-0.2-0.2				+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0
Edmonton Oilers vs Anaheim Ducks	+0.2-0.3-0.2-0.4-0.1+0.0				+0.0*-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning			-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.3*+0.1+0.2		-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0
Ottawa Senators vs Dallas Stars			+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Boston Bruins			+0.1-0.1+0.1+0.0-0.2-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Calgary Flames finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

124	-148						In		99.6	%	100																492	*
123		45	10		-	5	In		97.6		99	1															250	*
122		45	11		-	4	In		95.3		99	1															384	*
121		45	12		-	3	In		93.5		99	1															673	*
120		44	12		-	4	In		89.3		98	2															1,032	*
119		43	12		-	5	In		84.6		96	4	0														1,649	*
118		43	13		-	4	In		80.7		95	5	0														2,510	*
117		42	13		-	5	In		72.9		92	7	0														3,806	*
116		42	14		-	4	In		65.7		89	11	0														5,706	*
115		41	14		-	5	In		58.0		86	14	1														8,121	*
114		41	15		-	4	In		49.2		81	18	1	0													11,368	*
113		40	15		-	5	In		38.9		75	24	1														15,180	*
112		40	16		-	4	In		30.3		69	30	2	0	0												20,615	*
111		39	16		-	5	In		21.1		61	37	2	0													26,797	*
110		39	17		-	4	In		14.3		52	44	3	0	0												34,500	*
109		38	17		-	5	In		9.0		44	51	5	0	0												43,165	*
108		38	18		-	4	In		4.8		35	58	6	1	0	0											53,293	*
107		37	18		-	5	In		2.3		26	64	8	2	0	0											63,762	*
106		37	19		-	4	In		1.1		19	68	9	4	0	0	0										74,749	*
105		36	19		-	5	In		0.4		13	70	11	6	1	0	0										86,905	*
104		36	20		-	4	In		0.1		8	69	12	10	1	0	0										98,255	*
103		35	20		-	5	In		0.0		5	66	11	15	2	0	0										109,250	*
102		35	21		-	4	In		0.0		2	62	11	22	3	1	0	0									118,484	*
101		34	21		-	5	In		0.0		1	55	9	29	4	2	0	0									126,698	*
100		34	22		-	4	100.0	%	No		1	48	7	36	5	3	0	0	0								132,627	*
99		33	22		-	5	100.0		No		0	40	5	41	6	6	1	0	0								136,330	*
98		33	23		-	4	100.0		No		0	32	3	45	7	11	2	0	0								138,070	*
97		32	23		-	5	99.9		No		0	25	1	46	6	17	3	1	0	0							135,429	*
96		32	24		-	4	99.5		No		0	18	1	45	5	24	4	2	0	0	0						132,498	*
95		31	24		-	5	98.6		No		0	13	0	41	4	31	6	4	1	0	0	0					125,713	*
94		31	25		-	4	96.5		No			8	0	35	3	37	7	7	3	0	0	0					117,690	*
93		30	25		-	5	92.3		No			5	0	28	1	40	7	11	6	1	0	0	0				108,015	*
92		30	26		-	4	85.3		No			3	0	21	1	40	6	14	11	3	0	0					97,354	*
91		29	26		-	5	74.5		No			1		15	0	37	5	16	17	7	1	0	0				87,021	*
90		29	27		-	4	61.2		No			1		10	0	32	3	15	23	12	3	0	0				75,361	*
89		28	27		-	5	46.6		No			0		6	0	26	2	13	26	20	7	1	0				63,793	*
88		28	28		-	4	32.3		No			0		3	0	19	1	9	26	27	12	3	0	0			53,511	*
87		27	28		-	5	20.6		No			0		1		13	0	6	22	30	20	6	1	0			44,227	*
86		27	29		-	4	11.8		No			0		1		8	0	3	16	31	26	12	2	0			35,798	*
85		26	29		-	5	6.6		No			0		0		5	0	2	11	27	31	18	5	1	0		28,529	*
84		26	30		-	4	2.9		No					0		2	0	1	6	21	33	25	10	1	0		22,184	*
83		25	30		-	5	1.3		No					0		1	0	0	3	14	30	31	16	4	0		17,036	*
82		25	31		-	4	0.5		No					0		0		0	1	9	25	34	23	7	1		12,648	*
81		24	31		-	5	0.2		No					0		0		0	1	4	18	34	30	12	1		9,450	*
80		24	32		-	4	0.1		No							0			0	2	12	29	35	19	3		6,623	*
79		23	32		-	5	0.0		No							0			0	1	7	23	38	26	6		4,683	*
78		23	33		-	4	Out		No											1	4	15	37	34	9		3,398	*
77		22	33		-	5	Out		No											0	2	11	32	40	15		2,283	*
76		22	34		-	4	Out		No											0	1	8	26	44	21		1,559	*
75		21	34		-	5	Out		No												0	4	21	42	32		1,031	*
74		21	35		-	4	Out		No												0	2	15	42	41		628	*
73		20	35		-	5	Out		No													1	7	46	46		408	*
72		20	36		-	4	Out		No													1	7	38	54		271	*
71		19	36		-	5	Out		No														5	41	54		169	*
70		19	37		-	4	Out		No														1	27	72		95	*
69		18	37		-	5	Out		No														2	22	77		60	*
68		18	38		-	4	Out		No														4	31	65		26	*
67		17	38		-	5	Out		No															14	86		21	*
66		17	39		-	4	Out		No															22	78		9	*
28	-65						Out		No																100		208	*

Total:							87.0	%	2.2	%	8	31	4	22	3	14	2	4	4	4	2	1	1	0	0		2,502,400

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Calgary Flames vs Vegas Golden Knights	-0.7-0.6-0.6+0.4+0.4+1.1
Colorado Avalanche vs Arizona Coyotes	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1
Edmonton Oilers vs Anaheim Ducks	-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning	-0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1+0.0
Vancouver Canucks vs San Jose Sharks	-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0
Nashville Predators vs St. Louis Blues	-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0*+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

125	-148						100
124		46	10		-	4	99	1
123		45	10		-	5	98	2	1
122		45	11		-	4	95	3	1
121		45	12		-	3	93	5	1
120		44	12		-	4	89	8	2
119		43	12		-	5	85	12	4	0	0
118		43	13		-	4	81	14	5		0
117		42	13		-	5	73	19	7	0	0
116		42	14		-	4	66	23	11	0	0
115		41	14		-	5	58	28	13	0	1
114		41	15		-	4	49	32	18	1	1	0	0
113		40	15		-	5	39	36	23	1	1	0
112		40	16		-	4	30	38	27	3	2	0	0		0
111		39	16		-	5	21	40	32	5	2	0	0
110		39	17		-	4	14	38	36	9	3	0	0		0
109		38	17		-	5	9	35	38	13	4	0	0		0
108		38	18		-	4	5	30	39	19	5	1	1	0	0		0
107		37	18		-	5	2	24	37	27	6	2	2	0	0		0
106		37	19		-	4	1	18	33	35	6	3	4	0	0	0	0		0
105		36	19		-	5	0	12	27	42	6	4	6	0	1	0	0		0
104		36	20		-	4	0	8	21	48	6	6	10	1	1	0	0		0
103		35	20		-	5	0	5	15	51	4	7	14	2	2	0	0		0
102		35	21		-	4	0	2	10	52	3	8	18	4	3	0	1	0	0		0
101		34	21		-	5	0	1	6	49	2	7	22	7	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
100		34	22		-	4		1	3	45	1	6	23	12	4	1	3	0	0	0	0		0
99		33	22		-	5		0	2	38	0	4	22	19	4	2	6	0	1	0	0		0
98		33	23		-	4		0	1	31	0	3	20	26	4	3	11	0	2	0	0		0
97		32	23		-	5		0	0	25	0	1	15	31	3	4	16	1	3	0	1	0	0	0
96		32	24		-	4		0	0	18	0	1	11	34	2	4	22	3	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
95		31	24		-	5		0	0	13	0	0	6	34	1	3	26	6	4	1	4	0	1	0	0	0
94		31	25		-	4			0	8		0	4	32	0	2	27	10	4	2	7	0	3	0	0	0
93		30	25		-	5			0	5		0	2	26	0	1	25	16	4	3	10	1	6	1	0	0	0
92		30	26		-	4			0	3		0	1	20	0	1	20	20	3	4	13	2	11	3	0	0
91		29	26		-	5				1			0	14	0	0	14	24	1	3	13	3	17	7	1	0	0
90		29	27		-	4				1			0	9		0	9	24	1	3	10	5	21	13	4	1	0	0
89		28	27		-	5				0			0	6		0	4	21	0	2	7	6	22	20	9	2	0	0
88		28	28		-	4				0			0	3		0	2	17	0	1	3	6	20	26	16	5	1	0	0	0
87		27	28		-	5				0			0	1			1	12	0	0	1	5	13	25	24	12	4	1	0	0
86		27	29		-	4				0				1			0	7		0	0	3	7	20	27	20	10	3	1	0	0
85		26	29		-	5				0				0			0	5		0	0	2	3	12	23	26	18	8	3	1	0	0	0
84		26	30		-	4								0			0	2		0	0	1	1	5	15	24	25	17	8	2	0	0	0
83		25	30		-	5								0				1		0		0	0	2	7	17	24	24	16	7	2	0	0
82		25	31		-	4								0				0				0	0	1	3	9	18	24	22	15	6	2	0	0
81		24	31		-	5								0				0				0		0	1	3	10	19	24	23	13	5	1	0	0
80		24	32		-	4												0						0	0	1	4	11	20	26	21	12	3	1	0
79		23	32		-	5												0							0	0	1	5	13	22	26	19	9	3	1	0
78		23	33		-	4																				0	0	2	7	15	24	25	18	7	2	0
77		22	33		-	5																					0	1	3	9	18	25	25	14	4	1	0
76		22	34		-	4																						0	1	4	11	23	27	21	10	3	0
75		21	34		-	5																							0	1	6	16	25	26	19	6	1
74		21	35		-	4																								1	3	8	21	29	25	12	3
73		20	35		-	5																									1	3	14	27	34	18	2
72		20	36		-	4																									0	2	10	20	36	22	10
71		19	36		-	5																										1	6	13	35	33	12
70		19	37		-	4																												9	29	42	19
69		18	37		-	5																											2	7	15	40	37
68		18	38		-	4																											4	4	12	31	50
67		17	38		-	5																													14	24	62
66		17	39		-	4																														33	67
65		16	39		-	5																														25	75
64		13	37		-	10																															100
63		15	40		-	5																														33	67
28		0	60		-	0																															100

Total:							2	5	8	23	2	2	9	13	1	1	9	5	1	1	3	1	4	3	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0